This year's UDFA to make the team?

[mgteich]

Of course, UDFA's always have a chance to make the 53 man roster, even without injuries to other players. That being said, IMHO it isn't very likely except perhaps at punter. Most of us will pick our UDFA binky or two. That's fine. I think that there are some good players who will likely NOT make the team, and lot of camp fodder also.

I'm not saying that players on my list are all locks. However, UDFA's would need to beat out players like Ruud and Alexander who have no spots and then beat out one of Hobson, Seau, Woods or Izzo to get a roster spot. I think that it is unlikely for more than two rookie linebackers to be on this patriot squad.

And just BTW, there is a very long list of players who poster here have indicated would beat out Izzo. The reality is that he will be on the 53-man squad unless he's on the IR.

MY LIST OF PLAYERS WITH NO ROSTER SPOT (17)
OL Connolly, Martin
WR Jones, Aiken
TE Spach
FB Eckel
QB Cassell
DL Smith
LB Ruud, Alexander
DB Webster, Lewis Sanders, Andrews, Richardson, Spann, Ventrone
P Player
==================================
OFFENSE (25)
QB - 3 Tom Brady, Gutierrez, O’Connell
RB - 3 Faulk, Maroney, Morris
FB - 1 Evans
C - 1 Koppen
G - 4 Neal, Hochstein, Mankins, Yates
OT - 4 Light, Kaycur, O'Callaghan, Britt
WR - 6 Moss, Gaffney, Welker, Washington, Chad Jackson, Slater
TE - 3 Watson, Dave Thomas, Pollard

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Warren, Green, Seymour, Santonio Thomas
DT - 3 Wilfork, Le Kevin Smith, Wright
OLB- 4 Vrabel, Adalius Thomas, Crable, Woods
ILB- 5 Bruschi, Mayo, Hobson, Seau, Izzo
CB - 4 Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S - 4 Sanders, Harrison, Meriweather, Williams
DB – 1 Law

SPECIALISTS (3)
P - 1 Hanson
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Paxton

 

[cstjohn17]

Of course, UDFA's always have a chance to make the 53 man roster, even without injuries to other players. That being said, IMHO it isn't very likely except perhaps at punter. Most of us will pick our UDFA binky or two. That's fine. I think that there are some good players who will likely NOT make the team, and lot of camp fodder also.

Good breakdown, I agree with your overall premise. UDFAs are nice to cheer for but on a talented roster like the Patriots they don't have much of an impact on the roster. Some may make the final 53 but it is rare that they ever become more than special teams contributors.

For the most part 45+ of the roster slots are already decided. It would be nice if a couple younger players could stick on the practice squad but in the end they are generally easily replaceable JAGs.

 

[Zeke_Mowatt]

OFFENSE (25)
QB - 3 Tom Brady, Gutierrez, O’Connell
RB - 3 Faulk, Maroney, Morris
FB - 1 Evans
C - 1 Koppen
G - 4 Neal, Hochstein, Mankins, Yates
OT - 4 Light, Kaycur, O'Callaghan, Britt
WR - 6 Moss, Gaffney, Welker, Washington, Chad Jackson, Slater
TE - 3 Watson, Dave Thomas, Pollard

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Warren, Green, Seymour, Santonio Thomas
DT - 3 Wilfork, Le Kevin Smith, Wright
OLB- 4 Vrabel, Adalius Thomas, Crable, Woods
ILB- 5 Bruschi, Mayo, Hobson, Seau, Izzo
CB - 4 Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S - 4 Sanders, Harrison, Meriweather, Williams
DB – 1 Law

SPECIALISTS (3)
P - 1 Hanson
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Paxton

Looked like Slater would hit the roster on D, so that opens up a WR/offensive slot if you really believe he's going to make the roster, but are you expecting Ty Law to be on the team, or am I missing something here? I don't disagree with your analysis, but those were two ?s that hit me reading through it...

 

[PatsFan37]

I doubt that BB will cut Thomas and keep an UDFA because Thomas dropped a weight on his foot in the weight room. That's kinda dumb.

So that's how he broke his foot. Ouch.

 

[Jimke]

Most years I complain about the overall quality of the UDFAs

that the Patriots have signed. This year I am quite happy.

Dragosavich, Guyton, Redd, Green-Ellis, and Smith were all

projected as late round draft picks. These players along with

Stupar have a shot at making either the 53 man roster or the

practice squad.

 

[spacecrime]

Most years I complain about the overall quality of the UDFAs

that the Patriots have signed. This year I am quite happy.

Dragosavich, Guyton, Redd, Green-Ellis, and Smith were all

projected as late round draft picks. These players along with

Stupar have a shot at making either the 53 man roster or the

practice squad.

Technically they all have a shot. The problem is that they can't meake the team simply because they are very good players. That isn't enough. They have to be better than the others. For instance,

If Green-Ellis makes the team, then one of Maroney-Morris-Faulk won't. Who would you cut to make room for Green-Ellis? I like Green-Ellis, also, but someone asked me this same question a couple days ago and I had no answer.

Similarly, Guyton and Redd are OLBs. Typically we carry four, and we have Thomas, Vrabel, Crabel and Woods. Guyton would have a tremendous job on his hands beating out Woods, though it could be done. But then which of Thomas-Vrabel-Crabel would you cut for Redd. Conclusion: No room for Redd.

Stupar has an excellent chance of making the practice squad, and I can see the faint possibility of making the team if Spach gets hurt, Pollard totally sucks and Stupar plays like Tony Gonsalez.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think Slater is good enough on defense to replace a defensive slot. If he were considered a defensive player, then I would have only 5 WR's and 3 TE's. That's plenty for receivers. The 5th should really be a STer. The 6th is certainly a utilit player or a developmental player.

Yes, I expect that Law will be signed. If not then another DB will be signed or Webster (or even Lewis Sanders) will make the squad.

Looked like Slater would hit the roster on D, so that opens up a WR/offensive slot if you really believe he's going to make the roster, but are you expecting Ty Law to be on the team, or am I missing something here? I don't disagree with your analysis, but those were two ?s that hit me reading through it...

 

[tombonneau]

Technically they all have a shot. The problem is that they can't meake the team simply because they are very good players. That isn't enough. They have to be better than the others. For instance,

If Green-Ellis makes the team, then one of Maroney-Morris-Faulk won't. Who would you cut to make room for Green-Ellis? I like Green-Ellis, also, but someone asked me this same question a couple days ago and I had no answer.

Similarly, Guyton and Redd are OLBs. Typically we carry four, and we have Thomas, Vrabel, Crabel and Woods. Guyton would have a tremendous job on his hands beating out Woods, though it could be done. But then which of Thomas-Vrabel-Crabel would you cut for Redd. Conclusion: No room for Redd.

Stupar has an excellent chance of making the practice squad, and I can see the faint possibility of making the team if Spach gets hurt, Pollard totally sucks and Stupar plays like Tony Gonsalez.

I think you hit on two easily upgradeable spots here. What has Woods ever done to secure a spot on this roster? Don't underestimate his inability to corral that fumble in the SB. BB values clutch vs. anti-clutch play -- ask Caldwell.

I think Woods could easily lose a spot to an UDFA. He might even get bumped for a rookie or FA. I'd say his odds are 50/50 of being on the team.

As far as Spach or Pollard, an UDFA who excels in the preseason could easily bump one of those guys who are street vets that would likely still be available in October.

 

[spacecrime]

I think you hit on two easily upgradeable spots here. What has Woods ever done to secure a spot on this roster? Don't underestimate his inability to corral that fumble in the SB. BB values clutch vs. anti-clutch play -- ask Caldwell.

Well, regarding Calwell, I've never heard that BB makes decisions based on one play. That's what fans do. You have to look at Caldwell's body of work, but mostly what BB thought Caldwell could do in 2007 vs what BB thought Gaffney could do.

Woods did not corral that fumble, for sure, but I never heard of a player being cut for not corralling a fumble. If you've played, you know how much luck has to do with recovering fumbles.

It's too early to ask what Woods (or Guyot or Redd) have done to secure a spot on this roster. Neither have done a single thing good or bad. Both have all of training camp ahead of them unless they stink up the joint.

If Guyot can outplay Woods he can get the spot for sure, but to call that task easy is incorrect.

Woods has shown he can play in the NFL. Guyot has to give clues that if kept on the roster, he can not only make plays but make them more consistently. Doable, but not easily.

 

[MosiT]

???? So then how to you decide who makes the team and who doesn/t?

I think that most coaches make their decisions by what they see on the closed practice field rather than what they see in pre season games.

Pre season games really dont tell as much about a player as what the coach sees in close up practice sessions.

In fact on many occasions we as fans get taken in by a great performance by some players in pre season games and then a few days later we are scratching our heads as to why they were cut.

Yes, I dont believe that pre season is a key factor in whether players make or dont make the final roster. Does it play a part? Sure it does, but as I said, I believe what happens in the practice field and in the team's classroom settings carries much more weight.

 

[spacecrime]

I think that most coaches make their decisions by what they see on the closed practice field rather than what they see in pre season games.

This isn't what you said the first time, when Box suggested that preseason would give us a better idea about Green-Ellis:

Some people say they want to see how certain players look in pre season before they decide and I say that is about as useless as tits on a bull.

First, preseason includes more than just the games. It is training camp and practices also.

Second, as a means of evaluation these games against a live opponent who is trying to win and secure his own job are not useless. In my opinion, live games are necessary for evaluation of some positions.

Box and I were talking about the likelihood of a RB UDFA making the team, and RBs in particular are hard to evaluate outside of game situations. Shells and helmets and 7 on 7 just doesn't tell the whole story. Vision is more than half the equation, and for that you need game situations. Sort of like punt and kickoff returning.

 

[mgteich]

Okay, let's say I agree (I dont) that Woods is 50% to make the team as the #9 LB and as a top STer.

Why would I then believe that an UDFA would win that spot, if Woods loses it? First in line to beat out Woods are Alexander and Ruud. I think that a yet unsigned free agent, in addition to Seau, is more likely to make the 53 than a undrafted rookie. Personally, I think two rookies are plenty. However, there is plenty of room on the Practice Squad for a LB or two.

I think you hit on two easily upgradeable spots here. What has Woods ever done to secure a spot on this roster? Don't underestimate his inability to corral that fumble in the SB. BB values clutch vs. anti-clutch play -- ask Caldwell.

I think Woods could easily lose a spot to an UDFA. He might even get bumped for a rookie or FA. I'd say his odds are 50/50 of being on the team.

As far as Spach or Pollard, an UDFA who excels in the preseason could easily bump one of those guys who are street vets that would likely still be available in October.

 

[pats1]

I'd probably put Andrews on over Santonio Thomas. The Pats usually don't carry 7 DLs.

 

[spacecrime]

I'd probably put Andrews on over Santonio Thomas. The Pats usually don't carry 7 DLs.

Willie? I kind of figured Slater was drafted because Willie Andrews was about to become history.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think Woods could easily lose a spot to an UDFA. He might even get bumped for a rookie or FA. I'd say his odds are 50/50 of being on the team.

I'm not giving a link as it's to the Big Ugly's blog but this makes it sound like Woods will be showing Crable how to be an NFL player :

"Michigan linebacker/defensive end Shawn Crable said he spoke at the Senior Bowl with the Patriots, who gave him an interesting piece of advice.

“Their biggest advice was – they kept saying ‘if, if, if’ – if we draft you, my responsibility will be to follow Pierre around,” he said. “That’s cool with me.”

By Pierre, they meant Pierre Woods, Crable’s former college teammate and close friend."

 

[VJCPatriot]

From what I've heard BB say in his press conferences, it sounds like he REALLY likes Pierre Woods. In fact he said that the player Crable reminded him most of was... Pierre Woods. BB drafted Crable in the 3rd round because he thinks Crable might be a Pierre Woods clone? That's pretty high praise.

I'm not sure why people have such a stiffy for Woodyard. Undersized LB that is a longshot to make the team role is already taken by Ruud. Don't know much about Ruud except that his lack of size at 230 lbs makes him too small to make the team normally. He's gonna need to gain a LOT of weight. From what I understand, Woodyard is even smaller than Ruud. So... yeah. Even longer odds to beat. Ok 6'1 220. Yeah... how about this metaphor: round hole, square peg. That's it in a nutshell, let's move on folks.

 

[spacecrime]

I'm not sure why people have such a stiffy for Woodyard. Undersized LB that is a longshot to make the team role is already taken by Ruud. Don't know much about Ruud except that his lack of size at 230 lbs makes him too small to make the team normally. He's gonna need to gain a LOT of weight. From what I understand, Woodyard is even smaller than Ruud. So... yeah. Even longer odds to beat. Ok 6'1 220. Yeah... how about this metaphor: round hole, square peg. That's it in a nutshell, let's move on folks.

Woodyard sounds like his best shot in the NFL is safety.

 

[dryheat44]

Similarly, Guyton and Redd are OLBs. Typically we carry four, and we have Thomas, Vrabel, Crabel and Woods. Guyton would have a tremendous job on his hands beating out Woods, though it could be done. But then which of Thomas-Vrabel-Crabel would you cut for Redd. Conclusion: No room for Redd.

The flaw in this line of thinking is setting up a number of slots per position based on history. Belichick will find a way to keep his best 53 players. We could keep six OLBs, at the expense of one ILB and one DB. There's no reason not to dump a DB who plays almost exclusively STs (Andrews, Mitchell, Ventrone) and replace him with a promising OLB who will play almost exclusively STs for now.

 

[spacecrime]

The flaw in this line of thinking is setting up a number of slots per position based on history. Belichick will find a way to keep his best 53 players. We could keep six OLBs, at the expense of one ILB and one DB. There's no reason not to dump a DB who plays almost exclusively STs (Andrews, Mitchell, Ventrone) and replace him with a promising OLB who will play almost exclusively STs for now.

Yes, within certain constraints BB has been wildly variant in roster mix. There are still some positions that need to be represented, though. I cannot imagine him going into the season without two gunners, for instance. But since he has been here BB has carried 4 WRs and 6, 2 TEs and 4, 2 QBs and 4, 2 CBs and 5, and it's too hard to recall his max and min for DL and LB.

However, the issue is finding who to dump. You can't dump the three you list (Andrews, Mitchell, Ventrone) because they themselves are unlikely to be on the final roster. Andrews is the only possible, and if he makes it it will only be because Slater didn't and then Andrews is unlikely to be gone.

Whatever happens, there will be sure to be a surprise or two, and right now we are all just guessing. We need to get to the open practices and see some preseason games to get a feel for these new guys.

It's going to be a dead, dead time until TC starts.

 

[Jimke]

The flaw in this line of thinking is setting up a number of slots per position based on history. Belichick will find a way to keep his best 53 players. We could keep six OLBs, at the expense of one ILB and one DB. There's no reason not to dump a DB who plays almost exclusively STs (Andrews, Mitchell, Ventrone) and replace him with a promising OLB who will play almost exclusively STs for now.

If Guyton and Redd show some potential and are good special teamers,

I hope the Pats keep them ahead of Izzo and Alexander who aren't

even decent backups.