Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft them

[Free_Pacman]

What are the chances the following guys drop to 7 and, assuming only one drops, what are the chances Patriots draft them?

Dorsey 5% 90%

Gholtson 50% 75%

McFadden 15% 25%

Chris Long 10% 90%

 

[JoePats]

Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

The 2nd percentage assumes all the others are gone...

Dorsey 1% 100%
Gholston 25% 75%
McFadden 30% 5%
Chris Long 10% 80%

 

[BRiZ]

Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

What are the chances the following guys drop to 7 and, assuming only one drops, what are the chances Patriots draft them?

Dorsey 5% 90%

Gholtson 50% 75%

McFadden 15% 25%

Chris Long 10% 90%

Dorsey 2.8% 26%
Gholston 63.6% 43.5%
McFadden 54% 86.8%
Chris Long 7.2% 100%

 

[rookBoston]

Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

I actually started evaluating all the likely permutations...

JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Clady, Gholston
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, McFadden
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, Gholston
JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Albert, Gholston
etc.
etc.

... to figure out the odds. I quickly found some patterns.

- JLong will not get past St Louis.

- In no situation did I ever have Dorsey dropping past #4. Oakland is desperate for a DT and will not pass on him.

- CLong drops to #7 in situations where two of Ryan, Ellis, Clady and Albert are taken in the top-6. And it also assumes that the Jets would choose Gholston or McFadden over Long. Theoretically possible, but is that really realistic?

- Ryan could go #3, #5, #7 (in a trade), but never past Baltimore at #8.

- McFadden could go #4 or #6, and if he drops to #7 someone like Dallas will trade up for him.

- Gholston is a good bet for Oakland, and rarely gets past #6. Only in the few situations where both Gholston and McFadden are available to the Jets does he drop to the Pats. The draft would have to go something like Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Long - Clady in the top 5.

Even better would be Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Ellis - Clady, because then the Jets are looking at CLong, Gholston and McFadden, and we'll have the choice of at least one game breaking OLB.

IMO, Chance of lasting to #7:
Jake Long - 0%
Glenn Dorsey - 0%
Chris Long - 5%
Matt Ryan - 60%
Vernon Gholston - 30%
Darren McFadden - 30%
Sedrick Ellis - 80%
Ryan Clady - 90%

 

[dryheat44]

Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

78.4 % of statistics are made up on the spot. Didn't you know that? Or are you one of the 5.9% who don't?

 

[JoePats]

Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

Dorsey 2.8% 26%
Gholston 63.6% 43.5%
McFadden 54% 86.8%
Chris Long 7.2% 100%

I disagree that if Dorsey was available there is only a 26% chance the Patriots would take him.