NFL Draft Scout Article - Draft Value

[cstjohn17]

One of the best articles I have read recently on draft performance.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/08value.php

I believe you have to have a subscription to view the page but in summary the top ten picks produce more average starts and pro bowls but are not good money value, especially in the top 5.

 

[patchick]

Lots of interesting stuff, particularly the graphs. The first graph would seem to refute the occasional claims that 1st round talent really isn't much better than any other round. Picks 1-20 alone appear to produce about 40% of all Pro Bowlers.

 

[NePatriots]

Lots of interesting stuff, particularly the graphs. The first graph would seem to refute the occasional claims that 1st round talent really isn't much better than any other round. Picks 1-20 alone appear to produce about 40% of all Pro Bowlers.

Pro Bowlers are nice, but as Bill said, we want to have the best 45th man in the league, the best 44th man in the league, and so on. You can't do that with multiple top 10 draft picks on your team due to cap issues.

 

[sebman2112]

Lots of interesting stuff, particularly the graphs. The first graph would seem to refute the occasional claims that 1st round talent really isn't much better than any other round. Picks 1-20 alone appear to produce about 40% of all Pro Bowlers.

Honestly, do you really care about the Pro Bowl? Let's be honest here, a lot of guys make the Pro Bowl on name recog/popularity, and it's a complete joke.

Also, let's dig a little deeper, when we're talking first rounders, and start totals.

Some players selected in the first round might get a lot of starts simply because the team has so much invested in the player, and they're hoping he'll eventually develop into a great pro. Heck, the team might have even selected a player in the fifth round who's playing on a simular (or slighty better level), but the first rounder has a built in advantage, as the team has more hanging on his success.

 

[patchick]

Honestly, do you really care about the Pro Bowl? Let's be honest here, a lot of guys make the Pro Bowl on name recog/popularity, and it's a complete joke.

Also, let's dig a little deeper, when we're talking first rounders, and start totals.

Some players selected in the first round might get a lot of starts simply because the team has so much invested in the player, and they're hoping he'll eventually develop into a great pro. Heck, the team might have even selected a player in the fifth round who's playing on a simular (or slighty better level), but the first rounder has a built in advantage, as the team has more hanging on his success.

Even as I typed that, I was bracing myself for the "pro bowl" fallout! You're absolutely right, the Pro Bowl is a problematic measure. But as you point out, games started is at least as problematic -- especially because it gives a huge advantage to players on weaker teams, while the Pro Bowl at least is picking among all teams. The best answer would be a grading of each player after 3-4 years in the league.

And to the earlier poster, I wasn't arguing for stocking up on high draft picks, or even suggesting they were greater value on balance. I was just recalling a series of debates on whether the first round was really any richer in producing good players than later rounds, and I think the answer is clearly yes.