Player's Contracts

[Family]

When discussing player's contracts we should view them only as they really are: how much is guaranteed?

So Doubs signed a two year $35 million.
Diggs signed one year around $20 million with incentives.

The non guaranteed money actually can work against the player because it gives the team an option if you outplay the contract like Gronk and Gilmore. But the team can cut bait without penalty after it cleans up all the forward accounting it's done, which many on this board claim is crap.

The Christian Watson contract seems like the poster child for this. But an NFL contract an only be interpreted based on guarantees.

 

[Wozzy]

Guaranteed money is the only money that matters.

 

[TheRainMaker]

It's the guaranteed money.

 

[borg]

These guys agree............

1. Josh Allen (QB, Bills) – $250M guaranteed (6 years, 2025–2031)
2. Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns) – $230M guaranteed (5 years, 2022–2026)
3. Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) – $229M guaranteed (4 years, 2024–2028)
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) – $219M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
5. Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs) – $208.1M guaranteed (10 years, 2020–2031)
6. Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars) – $200M guaranteed (5 years, 2024–2030)
7. Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers) – $182.55M guaranteed (5 years, 2025–2030)
8. Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers) – $218.74M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
9. Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens) – $185M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2027)
10. Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles) – $179.4M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2028)

 

[Family]

These guys agree............

1. Josh Allen (QB, Bills) – $250M guaranteed (6 years, 2025–2031)
2. Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns) – $230M guaranteed (5 years, 2022–2026)
3. Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) – $229M guaranteed (4 years, 2024–2028)
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) – $219M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
5. Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs) – $208.1M guaranteed (10 years, 2020–2031)
6. Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars) – $200M guaranteed (5 years, 2024–2030)
7. Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers) – $182.55M guaranteed (5 years, 2025–2030)
8. Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers) – $218.74M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
9. Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens) – $185M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2027)
10. Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles) – $179.4M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2028)

All QBs

Going forward only guaranteed money should be discussed with contracts.

The rest is crap.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I think it requires more nuance than this.

Look at what just happened with Onwenu, for example. He had 1 year left with $17.5M non guaranteed. If the contract did not include that and he was a FA, he would not be here for 1 year, $10M. But the fact it existed in the contract created a negotiating tactic for us to hold him on that deal until now and then leverage that it was later in FA to avoid having to give him a multi year deal to lower the cap hit since market is dried up.' It was an important contract detail.

A lot of times you see these 4-5 years delas where all the guarantees are in years 1 and 2, but the structure of the signing bonus makes a year 3 release so cap space prohibitive due to dead money that even if the salary is nonguaranteed for that year it wouldn't make sense to cut the player unless he's just an absolute team cancer. So even if non guaranteed, that year 3 salary in that case is still a super relevant detail.

If you're going to boil it down to one number I agree the guarantee probably tells you more than the sticker value. But if you truly want to have informed analysis I think you have to loo at each contract for what it is - total structure - and judge tit how it make sense. No universal shortcuts.

 

[Family]

Look at what just happened with Onwenu, for example. He had 1 year left with $17.5M non guaranteed. If the contract did not include that and he was a FA, he would not be here for 1 year, $10M. But the fact it existed in the contract created a negotiating tactic for us to hold him on that deal until now and then leverage that it was later in FA to avoid having to give him a multi year deal to lower the cap hit since market is dried up.' It was an important contract detail.

Exactly. Thus my point that additional time on the contract benefits the team. If you outplay your contract, you're stuck. If you play like Onwenu you take less.

A lot of times you see these 4-5 years delas where all the guarantees are in years 1 and 2, but the structure of the signing bonus makes a year 3 release so cap space prohibitive due to dead money that even if the salary is nonguaranteed for that year it wouldn't make sense to cut the player unless he's just an absolute team cancer. So even if non guaranteed, that year 3 salary in that case is still a super relevant detail.

Then in those instances that can be considered a three year deal, but still at the team's option to cut bait early.

Look at Diggs this year. I believed it was a two year deal. They just took a hit.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I understand about the guaranteed money part, but I can't always tell how long the deal is for. On the Christian Watson contract, it was reported that it was a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension, but only $31 million is guaranteed. What do I need to look at to see how long the contract is really for?

 

[TheRainMaker]

I understand about the guaranteed money part, but I can't always tell how long the deal is for. On the Christian Watson contract, it was reported that it was a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension, but only $31 million is guaranteed. What do I need to look at to see how long the contract is really for?

It can be confusing because of the lack of details, but just look for where there's a goose egg under "Guaranteed Salary".

Let's take AJ Brown. His cap numbers are pretty low for 2026 and 2027 and he's not due any guaranteed money in 2028. When I'm evaluating player contracts and whether a team may make a move, I look for outs. As early as 2027 is when the Pats have an out on Brown. This was why I predicted Diggs was going to get cut back in December when some posters were irate with me. AJ Brown's highest cap number is $23.5M three years from now. Diggs' cap number would've been $26.5M for this season alone. This concept seemed to be very confusing to a small minority of posters who I shall not name.

A.J. Brown Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Brown contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

 

[mike_usagisan]

It can be confusing because of the lack of details, but just look for where there's a goose egg under "Guaranteed Salary".

Let's take AJ Brown. His cap numbers are pretty low for 2026 and 2027 and he's not due any guaranteed money in 2028. When I'm evaluating player contracts and whether a team may make a move, I look for outs. As early as 2027 is when the Pats have an out on Brown. This was why I predicted Diggs was going to get cut back in December when some posters were irate with me. AJ Brown's highest cap number is $23.5M three years from now. Diggs' cap number would've been $26.5M for this season alone. This concept seemed to be very confusing to a small minority of posters who I shall not name.

A.J. Brown Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Brown contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

Okay, that makes sense. And then, as @Family and @Hugepatsfan were saying above, even without the guaranteed salary, if it's still worth it to the team, they have the option to keep the player if there are more years still left? So, like Owenhu this season?