Player's Contracts

[Family]

When discussing player's contracts we should view them only as they really are: how much is guaranteed?

So Doubs signed a two year $35 million.
Diggs signed one year around $20 million with incentives.

The non guaranteed money actually can work against the player because it gives the team an option if you outplay the contract like Gronk and Gilmore. But the team can cut bait without penalty after it cleans up all the forward accounting it's done, which many on this board claim is crap.

The Christian Watson contract seems like the poster child for this. But an NFL contract an only be interpreted based on guarantees.

 

[Wozzy]

Guaranteed money is the only money that matters.

 

[TheRainMaker]

It's the guaranteed money.

 

[borg]

These guys agree............

1. Josh Allen (QB, Bills) – $250M guaranteed (6 years, 2025–2031)
2. Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns) – $230M guaranteed (5 years, 2022–2026)
3. Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) – $229M guaranteed (4 years, 2024–2028)
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) – $219M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
5. Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs) – $208.1M guaranteed (10 years, 2020–2031)
6. Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars) – $200M guaranteed (5 years, 2024–2030)
7. Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers) – $182.55M guaranteed (5 years, 2025–2030)
8. Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers) – $218.74M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
9. Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens) – $185M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2027)
10. Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles) – $179.4M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2028)

 

[Family]

These guys agree............

1. Josh Allen (QB, Bills) – $250M guaranteed (6 years, 2025–2031)
2. Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns) – $230M guaranteed (5 years, 2022–2026)
3. Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys) – $229M guaranteed (4 years, 2024–2028)
4. Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) – $219M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
5. Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs) – $208.1M guaranteed (10 years, 2020–2031)
6. Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars) – $200M guaranteed (5 years, 2024–2030)
7. Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers) – $182.55M guaranteed (5 years, 2025–2030)
8. Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers) – $218.74M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2029)
9. Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens) – $185M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2027)
10. Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles) – $179.4M guaranteed (5 years, 2023–2028)

All QBs

Going forward only guaranteed money should be discussed with contracts.

The rest is crap.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I think it requires more nuance than this.

Look at what just happened with Onwenu, for example. He had 1 year left with $17.5M non guaranteed. If the contract did not include that and he was a FA, he would not be here for 1 year, $10M. But the fact it existed in the contract created a negotiating tactic for us to hold him on that deal until now and then leverage that it was later in FA to avoid having to give him a multi year deal to lower the cap hit since market is dried up.' It was an important contract detail.

A lot of times you see these 4-5 years delas where all the guarantees are in years 1 and 2, but the structure of the signing bonus makes a year 3 release so cap space prohibitive due to dead money that even if the salary is nonguaranteed for that year it wouldn't make sense to cut the player unless he's just an absolute team cancer. So even if non guaranteed, that year 3 salary in that case is still a super relevant detail.

If you're going to boil it down to one number I agree the guarantee probably tells you more than the sticker value. But if you truly want to have informed analysis I think you have to loo at each contract for what it is - total structure - and judge tit how it make sense. No universal shortcuts.

 

[Family]

Look at what just happened with Onwenu, for example. He had 1 year left with $17.5M non guaranteed. If the contract did not include that and he was a FA, he would not be here for 1 year, $10M. But the fact it existed in the contract created a negotiating tactic for us to hold him on that deal until now and then leverage that it was later in FA to avoid having to give him a multi year deal to lower the cap hit since market is dried up.' It was an important contract detail.

Exactly. Thus my point that additional time on the contract benefits the team. If you outplay your contract, you're stuck. If you play like Onwenu you take less.

A lot of times you see these 4-5 years delas where all the guarantees are in years 1 and 2, but the structure of the signing bonus makes a year 3 release so cap space prohibitive due to dead money that even if the salary is nonguaranteed for that year it wouldn't make sense to cut the player unless he's just an absolute team cancer. So even if non guaranteed, that year 3 salary in that case is still a super relevant detail.

Then in those instances that can be considered a three year deal, but still at the team's option to cut bait early.

Look at Diggs this year. I believed it was a two year deal. They just took a hit.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I understand about the guaranteed money part, but I can't always tell how long the deal is for. On the Christian Watson contract, it was reported that it was a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension, but only $31 million is guaranteed. What do I need to look at to see how long the contract is really for?

 

[TheRainMaker]

I understand about the guaranteed money part, but I can't always tell how long the deal is for. On the Christian Watson contract, it was reported that it was a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension, but only $31 million is guaranteed. What do I need to look at to see how long the contract is really for?

It can be confusing because of the lack of details, but just look for where there's a goose egg under "Guaranteed Salary".

Let's take AJ Brown. His cap numbers are pretty low for 2026 and 2027 and he's not due any guaranteed money in 2028. When I'm evaluating player contracts and whether a team may make a move, I look for outs. As early as 2027 is when the Pats have an out on Brown. This was why I predicted Diggs was going to get cut back in December when some posters were irate with me. AJ Brown's highest cap number is $23.5M three years from now. Diggs' cap number would've been $26.5M for this season alone. This concept seemed to be very confusing to a small minority of posters who I shall not name.

A.J. Brown Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Brown contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

 

[mike_usagisan]

It can be confusing because of the lack of details, but just look for where there's a goose egg under "Guaranteed Salary".

Let's take AJ Brown. His cap numbers are pretty low for 2026 and 2027 and he's not due any guaranteed money in 2028. When I'm evaluating player contracts and whether a team may make a move, I look for outs. As early as 2027 is when the Pats have an out on Brown. This was why I predicted Diggs was going to get cut back in December when some posters were irate with me. AJ Brown's highest cap number is $23.5M three years from now. Diggs' cap number would've been $26.5M for this season alone. This concept seemed to be very confusing to a small minority of posters who I shall not name.

A.J. Brown Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

A.J. Brown contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

Okay, that makes sense. And then, as @Family and @Hugepatsfan were saying above, even without the guaranteed salary, if it's still worth it to the team, they have the option to keep the player if there are more years still left? So, like Owenhu this season?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Okay, that makes sense. And then, as @Family and @Hugepatsfan were saying above, even without the guaranteed salary, if it's still worth it to the team, they have the option to keep the player if there are more years still left? So, like Owenhu this season?

Yes, they had an out with Owenu for the last year of his deal in 2026. Reiss named him as one guy who could've been on the chopping block. I believe he had a $25M cap hit, but the pay cut reduced it to a more reasonable $17M and his guaranteed money down to $10M. As I mentioned previously, Owenu did the Pats a solid as he had some leverage to decline the Pats asking him for a pay cut. Cutting him now would create a massive hole at RG. Had the Pats done this in March, I would've accepted the pay cut given the high cap hit and the possibility of being replaced by someone in FA.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Okay, that makes sense. And then, as @Family and @Hugepatsfan were saying above, even without the guaranteed salary, if it's still worth it to the team, they have the option to keep the player if there are more years still left? So, like Owenhu this season?

It is a contract. Each one is different. It can be written anyway the parties agree.

Onwenu could have put in the contract that his 2026 salary became guaranteed on March 15th 2026 if he was still on the roster. That forces the team to pay his salary or cut him so he is a FA by March 15th.

The contract can say anything if the two parties agree to the language.

 

[Family]

It is a contract. Each one is different. It can be written anyway the parties agree.

Onwenu could have put in the contract that his 2026 salary became guaranteed on March 15th 2026 if he was still on the roster. That forces the team to pay his salary or cut him so he is a FA by March 15th.

The contract can say anything if the two parties agree to the language.

Unless a player is elite, I don't see a late guarantee like that ever written in.

Teams want to keep the system as is. Only QB's or possible future HOFers receive late guarantees.

 

[Family]

Green Bay Packers: the truth about the Christian Watson contract extension many are ignoring

Last week, the Green Bay Packers made one of the most expected moves of their off-season. They signed wide receiver Christian Watson to a four-year $110 million contract extension, ensuring that their 2022 second round pick will remain with the organization for the duration of their current...

sports.yahoo.com

It's interesting how the current NFL contract system is being changed from different directions.

Since D. Watson elite players are receiving more guaranteed money, some approaching an entire contract, while high untapped potential players like Watson are being tied up with lesser guarantees.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Unless a player is elite, I don't see a late guarantee like that ever written in.

Teams want to keep the system as is. Only QB's or possible future HOFers receive late guarantees.

You are probably right, but the point is that any contract can say anything (within the collective bargaining agreement I assume). So asking how NFL employment contracts work is meaningless because each one can be different. You have to read the contract, or to save time, ChatGPT will summarize it quite accurately.

 

[Family]

You are probably right, but the point is that any contract can say anything (within the collective bargaining agreement I assume). So asking how NFL employment contracts work is meaningless because each one can be different. You have to read the contract, or to save time, ChatGPT will summarize it quite accurately.

Yes they do get creative with how they do it, but in the end what's guaranteed at signing is all that matters for the player.

 

[Real fan 02]

It's the guaranteed money.

Absolutely correct as all the years ect, ect in a contract is what's put out there by the teams.. the agent's want the guaranteed money known... that is all that matters.

 

[JoeSixPat]

If we're thinking about Gonzo, Sauce Gardner's contract is an interesting comparison

Yes, he signed a 4 year $120 million contract

But it was designed with two "outs" - one in the initial year that was made to be tradeable with minimal dead money to the Jets

He only got a $13.5 million bonus

After that it's essentially a 3 year, $71 million contract with an "out" for the Colts after 2028 that leaves them with an $8 million cap hit, which is not a bad alternative for them given that his next two seasons come in at $72 million non-guaranteed.

If he gets injured or doesn't play well enough he'll never see that money. Even if he does play well he'd probably be extended at less than his $36 million on paper to get that cap hit down.

Gonzo may want bragging rights to get him into the same $120 million "highest paid" conversation, but he might not want a contract designed to be traded or cut in the later years with limited guaranteed money. So the last two year $72 million is hypothetical only.

That being said, even though he's under contract this year and while yes, they did give him his 5th year option, that's a club option so they can cut ties with him after this year.

I'd still guess that he gets a contract with an AAV of $31 million over 4 years, again, just for his bragging rights, but most of that money will be hypothetical and he'll have to stay healthy and play well to see a portion of the later years be guaranteed in an extension.


So going out there to play in camp means he's risking $70 million plus in order to earn $2.25 million this year. He'd be crazy to do that. Anyone would. The extension will likely get done by next month at the latest just like Gardner's was to get him into camp given that he was in a similar situation.

Ahmad Gardner | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Ahmad Gardner signed a 4 year, $120,400,000 contract with the New York Jets with an average annual salary of $30,100,000.

www.spotrac.com

 

[n1997y]

You are probably right, but the point is that any contract can say anything (within the collective bargaining agreement I assume). So asking how NFL employment contracts work is meaningless because each one can be different. You have to read the contract, or to save time, ChatGPT will summarize it quite accurately.

IIRC the league has to approve the contract. That’s subject to the CBA but I believe it’s also subject to league approval considering effects on other clubs and the overall league. For example I think the response to rein in the “poison pill” provisions wasn’t anything involving the CBA it was based on the impact on other clubs. But that’s just my first pass evaluation without any deep dive studying it.