Looking at AFC clinching scenarios, disregarding ties and Strength of Victory/Strength of Schedule tiebreakers:
13-3 Denver Broncos, currently #1 seed, home vs 11-5 Chargers
- #1 seed with win over Chargers
- #1 seed with losses by both Jax and NE
- #2 seed with loss to LAC, plus one of either Jags or Pats lose
- #3 seed with loss to LAC, plus both Jax and NE win
13-2 New England Patriots, currently #2 seed, home vs 7-9 Dolphins
- #1 seed with win over Miami, plus Denver loss
- #2 seed with win over Miami, plus Denver win
- #2 seed with loss to Miami, plus Jaguars loss
- #3 seed with loss to Miami, plus Jaguars win
12-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, #3 seed, home vs 3-13 Tennessee Titans
- #1 seed with win over Titans, plus both Broncos and Patriots lose
- #2 seed with win over Titans, plus Broncos lose
- #2 seed with win over Titans, plus Patriots lose
- #3 seed with win over Titans, plus both Broncos and Pats win
- #5 seed with loss to Titans, plus Bills lose to Jets
- #6 seed with loss to Titans, plus Chargers lose to Denver
- #7 seed with loss to Titans, plus both Bills and Chargers win
11-5 Houston Texans, #5 seed, home vs 8-8 Indianapolis Colts
- #3 seed with win over Colts, plus Jaguars loss
- #5 seed with win over Colts, plus Jaguars win
- #5 seed with loss to Colts, but Bills and Chargers both lose
- #6 seed with loss to Colts, plus one of either Bills or Chargers lose
- #7 seed with loss to Colts, plus both Bills and Chargers win
11-5 Los Angeles Chargers, #6 seed, at 13-3 Denver Broncos
- #5 seed with win over Broncos, plus Texans loss
- #6 seed with win over Broncos, plus Texans win
- #6 seed with loss to Broncos, plus Bills loss to Jets
- #7 seed with loss to Broncos, plus Bills beat Jets
11-5 Buffalo Bills, #7 seed, home vs 3-13 Jets
- #5 seed with win over Jets, plus Chargers lose to Denver, plus Jaguars lose to Titans
- #5 seed with win over Jets, plus Chargers lose to Denver, plus Texans lose to Colts
- #6 seed with win over Jets, plus Chargers lose to Denver, and Jags & Texans both win
- #6 seed with win over Jets, plus Texans lose to Colts, and Chargers & Jags both win
- #7 seed if Jaguars, Texans and Chargers all win, or with loss to Jets