OT: Drop in Passing Yards Across the NFL in 2025

[Ian]

I thought this bit from the Globe was interesting, noting that passing yards have dropped again this season:

"When passing yards declined across the league in 2024 for the third time in four years, the NFL attributed it mostly to the rise in split-safety defenses designed to take away deep passes.

If that’s the case, then offensive coordinators need to do some extra homework next offseason to figure it out, because passing numbers have decreased even more in 2025.

Entering Week 17, the NFL has had just 61 games of 300 passing yards. That’s a pace of 69 that would be the fewest in a season since 2006. It’s nearly half the number of 300-yard passing games the NFL saw in 2015 and 2018-20, when there were 132 such games in each season.

Overall, teams are averaging just 227.9 passing yards per game this season, the fewest since 2008 and down from a high of 259 per game in 2015.

Another theory: other than Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, most of today’s top quarterbacks are dual-threats and not pure pocket gunslingers like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer last decade."

Will the Ravens have to choose between John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson for 2026? - The Boston Globe

With the Ravens likely missing the playoffs, it’s starting to feel like someone might have to go — either the coach or the quarterback.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[Joey007]

I blame the new damn kickoff rules giving people stupidly good field position regularly.

 

[TomPatriot]

Other possible reasons. More hand checking, physical coverage allowed. More blitzes, QB pressure leading to incomplete or shorter passes.

 

[Vindicate]

I thought this bit from the Globe was interesting, noting that passing yards have dropped again this season:

"When passing yards declined across the league in 2024 for the third time in four years, the NFL attributed it mostly to the rise in split-safety defenses designed to take away deep passes.

If that’s the case, then offensive coordinators need to do some extra homework next offseason to figure it out, because passing numbers have decreased even more in 2025.

Entering Week 17, the NFL has had just 61 games of 300 passing yards. That’s a pace of 69 that would be the fewest in a season since 2006. It’s nearly half the number of 300-yard passing games the NFL saw in 2015 and 2018-20, when there were 132 such games in each season.

Overall, teams are averaging just 227.9 passing yards per game this season, the fewest since 2008 and down from a high of 259 per game in 2015.

Another theory: other than Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, most of today’s top quarterbacks are dual-threats and not pure pocket gunslingers like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer last decade."

Will the Ravens have to choose between John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson for 2026? - The Boston Globe

With the Ravens likely missing the playoffs, it’s starting to feel like someone might have to go — either the coach or the quarterback.

www.bostonglobe.com

I really think this just is highlighted by two things:

- The league reconciling with the fact that a good run game is absolutely necessary, regardless of what Brees/Brady/Manning/Rodgers suggested

- Potentially shorter fields due to new kickoffs?

But moreso the first point. The re-ermergence of the run game explains both lower scoring (eats up more clock) and less passing yards.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Bill Pollian is going to roll over in his grave.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

more bad qb’s?

 

[bakes781]

We cant give up on Wilson after 1 year. Move him to Center where he played in college. Draft a LG and a RT.

 

[Pape]

I thought this bit from the Globe was interesting, noting that passing yards have dropped again this season:

"When passing yards declined across the league in 2024 for the third time in four years, the NFL attributed it mostly to the rise in split-safety defenses designed to take away deep passes.

If that’s the case, then offensive coordinators need to do some extra homework next offseason to figure it out, because passing numbers have decreased even more in 2025.

Entering Week 17, the NFL has had just 61 games of 300 passing yards. That’s a pace of 69 that would be the fewest in a season since 2006. It’s nearly half the number of 300-yard passing games the NFL saw in 2015 and 2018-20, when there were 132 such games in each season.

Overall, teams are averaging just 227.9 passing yards per game this season, the fewest since 2008 and down from a high of 259 per game in 2015.

Another theory: other than Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, most of today’s top quarterbacks are dual-threats and not pure pocket gunslingers like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer last decade."

Will the Ravens have to choose between John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson for 2026? - The Boston Globe

With the Ravens likely missing the playoffs, it’s starting to feel like someone might have to go — either the coach or the quarterback.

www.bostonglobe.com

Think it more has to do with guys like Brady, Manning, Brees etc retiring, getting replaced by guys like hurts, love, lawrence etc... just aren't the same caliber qb...

 

[NFL Mystique]

I blame the new damn kickoff rules giving people stupidly good field position regularly.

Other things I hate:

Needing to let the opponent know you are going for an onside kick before the 4th quarter. Go back in time and imagine the Saints needing to tell the Colts they were going for an onside kick. Now, you just removed one of the biggest plays in SB history. I don't understand what this adds to the game.

The ridiculous overtime rules in the regular season. If your defense can't stop a team from scoring a TD on the opening drive, too bad. They already give a team the opportunity to match a TD in the postseason. No need to do it for the regular season. It adds time and increases the likelihood of injuries.

The stupid rule where only one team per conference gets a bye. The 7th seed usually gets obliterated in uncompetitive games. It's watered things down.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

a combination of the kickoff rules and QB play being worse

 

[Water Boy]

I'm surprised by this stat. I don't see it as a problem, though.

 

[Gumby]

I thought this bit from the Globe was interesting, noting that passing yards have dropped again this season:

"When passing yards declined across the league in 2024 for the third time in four years, the NFL attributed it mostly to the rise in split-safety defenses designed to take away deep passes…….
Entering Week 17, the NFL has had just 61 games of 300 passing yards. ….
Overall, teams are averaging just 227.9 passing yards per game this season, the fewest since 2008 and down from a high of 259 per game in 2015.

Another theory: ….., most of today’s top quarterbacks are dual-threats and not pure pocket gunslingers …

Will the Ravens have to choose between John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson for 2026? - The Boston Globe

With the Ravens likely missing the playoffs, it’s starting to feel like someone might have to go — either the coach or the quarterback.

www.bostonglobe.com

I blame the new damn kickoff rules giving people stupidly good field position regularly.

Off the top of my head (w/o any research); I would throw out there Could it be PENALTY YARDS have replaced those 20-30 yards per game?

Watching Houston send out all their receivers on a 3d & long down last night with instructions to run AT THE DBs to pick up a freebie 5-yard 1st down. Naturally worked and DB got a penalty while the Offensive PI, that was much more blatant, was of course NOT called.

 

[TommyD4207]

a combination of the kickoff rules and QB play being worse

Kinda? I don't know that QB play is that much worse than 2015. I mean, Brian Hoyer was a starting QB in 2015.

First off, it's the kickoff rules - avg starting field position was the 27- yard line. This year it's the 31. Doesn't sound like a lot, but it's like 30+ yards of possibility of more passing yards/game.

Teams ran a lot more single-high defense concepts in 2015 (because outside of the top 10ish or so defensive coordinators in the league, most of them are 'hurr durr, only way to stop Brady/Manning is to pressure him in his face' like every other QB ever). allowing for more open space down the field, not just for QBs but for YAC.

With all QBs being more athletic than they were in the past (they can all run to some degree), QBs are picking up more rushing yards than they did previously.

So now with the two-high safeties most teams use now, QBs are forced to become checkdown merchants (except Drake 'Drake Maye' Maye), limiting YAC, and more of that infernal bubble screen nonsense that teams have wised up to over the last 5 years.

Linebackers are faster now, not necessarily better at coverage (but marginally so)< but they can get to a ballcarrier faster. But because they're faster, and with teams using more nickel-as-base as a defense, the run game has found a resurgence, running against lighter players and lighter boxes.

This also leads to more ball control, shorter games, and fewer possessions a side - less chances for passing yards, games are closer, no reason to abandon the run.

That's 6, 7 reasons right there, I'm sure I can come up with more. I don't hate it, if you want my personal opinion. I'm glad games are in the 20s instead of the 40s. To me, one is football, the other is some unrecognizable sport. There's a reason to have a defense on the field again. Offenses will adjust again, you'll see a lot of teams moving to a more matchup base in personnel (multiple TEs, like the Rams, more intermediate routes like the Patriots), and I would predict by 2030, scoring and passing will be at a higher level, more commensurate with what people are used to.

 

[stinkypete]

I blame the new damn kickoff rules giving people stupidly good field position regularly.

This is a very real culprit.

 

[Tunescribe]

Other possible reasons. More hand checking, physical coverage allowed. More blitzes, QB pressure leading to incomplete or shorter passes.

Can't say I've seen that vs. even MORE ticky-tack flags thrown for imaginary PI/illegal contact. But if passing yards are down, I wonder if rushing yards are up, which would indicate a trend toward better balance -- something I'd welcome. I tend to agree that the kickoff rule change is a primary driver.

 

[RobertWeathers]

more bad qb’s?

The quality of good Qb play is down- no question

 

[Gumby]

Off the top of my head (w/o any research); I would throw out there Could it be PENALTY YARDS have replaced those 20-30 yards per game?

Watching Houston send out all their receivers on a 3d & long down last night with instructions to run AT THE DBs to pick up a freebie 5-yard 1st down. Naturally worked and DB got a penalty while the Offensive PI, that was much more blatant, was of course NOT called.

Caveat: I must be really bored this Sunday morning…..

So I went to https://www.nflpenalties.com/passing-penalties.php?view=total_against&year=2025
and couldn’t find simple totals, but added some numbers for:
Def Holding & DPI / Illegal Contact

BL:
2025 is at (447) the 17 year average (448) for DH-DPI, with 2 weeks to go… so projects out to 506.
—-**** This is a 13% increase over the 17 year average ****
2025 (15 weeks) is at a 17 year high (91 - projects to 103) for illegal contact (17-yr avg = 63) .
—- **** This is a 63% increase over the 17 year average ****

not sure what a good penalty-yard avg is, but say 10 or 15. 98 extra penalties is appx 1000 to 1500 yards that teams didn’t have to move ball through the air. (So maybe 25% of the yardage decrease could be attributed to increased penalties)

 

[Ross12]

Can't say I've seen that vs. even MORE ticky-tack flags thrown for imaginary PI/illegal contact. But if passing yards are down, I wonder if rushing yards are up, which would indicate a trend toward better balance -- something I'd welcome. I tend to agree that the kickoff rule change is a primary driver.

Yeah, it’s more like this. The passing yards are down but the offense is still moving thanks to increased penalty yardage awarded. Plus shorter fields due to kickoff changes… This is all stuff the league has done to itself.

 

[Tunescribe]

Yeah, it’s more like this. The passing yards are down but the offense is still moving thanks to increased penalty yardage awarded. Plus shorter fields due to kickoff changes… This is all stuff the league has done to itself.

Plus, quarterback completion percentages are up, indicating a league that's even further out of balance in favor of offense.

 

[captain stone]

Caveat: I must be really bored this Sunday morning…..

So I went to https://www.nflpenalties.com/passing-penalties.php?view=total_against&year=2025
and couldn’t find simple totals, but added some numbers for:
Def Holding & DPI / Illegal Contact

BL:
2025 is at (447) the 17 year average (448) for DH-DPI, with 2 weeks to go… so projects out to 506.
—-**** This is a 13% increase over the 17 year average ****
2025 (15 weeks) is at a 17 year high (91 - projects to 103) for illegal contact (17-yr avg = 63) .
—- **** This is a 63% increase over the 17 year average ****

not sure what a good penalty-yard avg is, but say 10 or 15. 98 extra penalties is appx 1000 to 1500 yards that teams didn’t have to move ball through the air. (So maybe 25% of the yardage decrease could be attributed to increased penalties)

The league should REMOVE the automatic first-down punishment for the 5-yard Illegal Contact, beginning Week 1 of the 2026 season.

Same for Defensive Holding: make it a 10-yard penalty, same as Offensive Holding, but Nothing Else.