Clinching scenarios discussion

[Ross12]

Fooling around with this simulator, it claims that if the Patriots and Broncos both finish 14-3, Denver still gets the #1 seed.
I'm not sure why, because I even had Denver lose to the Chargers, giving the Broncos a 4-2 division record, as opposed to the Pats 5-1.

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Division record is only a tiebreaker for teams in the same division. The Broncos and Patriots rae in different divisions, so that is ignored. The tiebreaker is head-to-head, and if they haven't played one another, then the next tiebreaker is conference record.

Right now, the Pats are 6-3 in the AFC whereas the Broncos are 7-2. If NE loses to Baltimore, but wins vs NYJ/MIA, and Denver loses against the Jags and Chargers but beats the Chiefs, both teams finish at 13-4 with AFC records of 8-4. So, then the next tiebreaker after that is their record in common games, which would be an entire other exercise analyzing games each team has in common. As far as I can tell, Denver wins that due to having beaten the Raiders 2x, whom the Pats lost to in week 1.

So realistically speaking, especially in light of the Mahomes injury, a loss vs. Baltimore really makes the #1 seed very unlikely. However, if they can go 3-0 vs Baltimore/NYJ/Miami then it becomes possible if Denver loses both of the Jacksonville and LAC games.

I think a reasonable consolation prize is one in which the #1 seed is out of reach due to Denver beating Jacksonville next week, but the Pats win vs. Baltimore and the Jets, and the Bills lose to the Eagles in 2 weeks. This will mean that the Pats clinch the division by default, since NE will have 2 more wins than the Bills with only 1 game remaining, and could effectively take their "bye week" in week 18 against the Dolphins and rest the starters.

 

[Triumph]

 

[sb1]

If this bracket holds then Pats-Bills III in Foxboro is still a possibility for the AFC Championship game.

 

[PatsFan2]

The Jaguars have won 6 of their last 7 games: playing very well since acquiring J Meyers also have a lot of weapons. @jdlboot14 brought something that got my attention: they have a tough game against Denver on Sunday: anything is possible both Hot Teams. The Jags are in the running for the Number Two seed right now and could make things very interesting with a win against Denver. The Jags have a very easy close out @ injured Colts and Home vs lowly Titans.

 

[Steve102]

The Jaguars have won 6 of their last 7 games: playing very well since acquiring J Meyers also have a lot of weapons. @jdlboot14 brought something that got my attention: they have a tough game against Denver on Sunday: anything is possible both Hot Teams. The Jags are in the running for the Number Two seed right now and could make things very interesting with a win against Denver. The Jags have a very easy close out @ Colts and vs Titans @ Home.

This week has some great football.

Denver vs Jaguars
Chargers at Dallas
Texans vs Raiders
Pats at Baltimore SNF
Bills at Cleveland

Bills and Raiders look to be layups. The others are not so clear cut. That's just the AFC.

Rams vs Seattle TNF
Pack vs Bears
Tampa vs Carolina
Steelers vs Lions

49ers vs Colts MNF

Going to be a good Sunday for redzone subscribers.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Houston is a horrible matchup for NE.

 

[Real fan 02]

If this bracket holds then Pats-Bills III in Foxboro is still a possibility for the AFC Championship game.

I'll be honest I will take our defense against any QB not named Josh Allen.. I just think it's going to take at least one more offseason to get the pass rush where it needs to be..

 

[Real fan 02]

Houston is a horrible matchup for NE.

For some strange reason I'd like our chances.. Josh seems to have the answers for aggressive fronts like Texans.. nick caley offense scares no one..

 

[Real fan 02]

Houston is a horrible matchup for NE.

Buffalo may be content where they are for seeding??

 

[Real fan 02]

This week has some great football.

Denver vs Jaguars
Chargers at Dallas
Texans vs Raiders
Pats at Baltimore SNF
Bills at Cleveland

Bills and Raiders look to be layups. The others are not so clear cut. That's just the AFC.

Rams vs Seattle TNF
Pack vs Bears
Tampa vs Carolina
Steelers vs Lions

49ers vs Colts MNF

Going to be a good Sunday for redzone subscribers.

There's also a Saturday afternoon and night game as well...

 

[TheRainMaker]

For some strange reason I'd like our chances.. Josh seems to have the answers for aggressive fronts like Texans.. nick caley offense scares no one..

What the Texans did the Bills was brutal and we don't know how healthy Campbell will be when he returns. Texans have a fast defense that can travel laterally in a hurry. They can stop the run forcing NE into passing situations. Pats have a good chance of facing either Houston or LA Chargers who beat them down one year ago. That will be very interesting to see how well the team responds.

Buffalo may be content where they are for seeding??

The way Jacksonville is playing, this might be good for the Pats. I'd like for the Jags to eliminate them in the Wild Card.

I do expect some multiple weird upsets in the playoffs this year from each conference.

 

[Real fan 02]

What the Texans did the Bills was brutal and we don't know how healthy Campbell will be when he returns. Texans have a fast defense that can travel laterally in a hurry. They can stop the run forcing NE into passing situations. Pats have a good chance of facing either Houston or LA Chargers who beat them down one year ago. That will be very interesting to see how well the team responds.

The way Jacksonville is playing, this might be good for the Pats. I'd like for the Jags to eliminate them in the Wild Card.

I do expect some multiple weird upsets in the playoffs this year from each conference.

Good points... I have us stuck in #2 seeding.. but the way Houston is trending they may very well end up passing Jags?

Basically every team in the postseason is flawed to some degree.. now the Patriots have a bone to pick with Houston and LA they both beat us last season...

 

[Steve102]

Good points... I have us stuck in #2 seeding.. but the way Houston is trending they may very well end up passing Jags?

Basically every team in the postseason is flawed to some degree.. now the Patriots have a bone to pick with Houston and LA they both beat us last season...

I just ran a "what if" scenario. If the Pats lost every game and the Colts won them all, the Pats would be out. The chances of those things happening are microscopically slim. One win puts them in.

 

[sb1]

I just ran a "what if" scenario. If the Pats lost every game and the Colts won them all, the Pats would be out. The chances of those things happening are microscopically slim. One win puts them in.

That scenario could make Vrabel's stint here in NE very short.

 

[PatsFan2]

Houston is a horrible matchup for NE.

I feel the same way: they're are a very Hot Team: who can win anywhere with that D. Houston don't have to Blitz to get there: they can get to the QB with Four Rushers.

 

[Steve102]

That scenario could make Vrabel's stint here in NE very short.

I think he's good for year two regardless.

 

[Real fan 02]

I just ran a "what if" scenario. If the Pats lost every game and the Colts won them all, the Pats would be out. The chances of those things happening are microscopically slim. One win puts them in.

I see.. I want to see how they play Sunday night going to be a big determination on how they finish and enter the playoffs they have been a good team all year and we've seen them playing good quality ball.. I'd hate for them to fade like the 2021 fake rebuild year..

 

[Steve102]

I see.. I want to see how they play Sunday night going to be a big determination on how they finish and enter the playoffs they have been a good team all year and we've seen them playing good quality ball.. I'd hate for them to fade like the 2021 fake rebuild year..

2021 was a fake rebuild year because the HC's staff regressed in the following off-season. Now you have a HC 20 years younger with a loaded staff and a better athlete under center. They might get beat in the playoffs, but it won't be because of a lack of fight. I think they proved they are a good team Sunday, even if they coughed up a 21 point lead in the 2nd half. Now we know how the Falcons felt, eh?


I have no idea if they'll ever make it back to a SB, but I am confident they'll be competitive every Sunday.

 

[Real fan 02]

2021 was a fake rebuild year because the HC's staff regressed in the following off-season. Now you have a HC 20 years younger with a loaded staff and a better athlete under center. They might get beat in the playoffs, but it won't be because of a lack of fight. I think they proved they are a good team Sunday, even if they coughed up a 21 point lead in the 2nd half. Now we know how the Falcons felt, eh?


I have no idea if they'll ever make it back to a SB, but I am confident they'll be competitive every Sunday.

Great points Steve.. as always bringing the truth here..

They absolutely are a tough team and they do fight.. when Henderson scored that 65 yard TD I thought that would seal the game..

I'm the biggest critic on the D because they are supposed to be the tone setters for the team and get the ball back to Drake as much as possible.

Love for them to at least get a playoff win this season..

 

[aluminum seats]

Fooling around with this simulator, it claims that if the Patriots and Broncos both finish 14-3, Denver still gets the #1 seed.
I'm not sure why, because I even had Denver lose to the Chargers, giving the Broncos a 4-2 division record, as opposed to the Pats 5-1.

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Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.

www.espn.com

I think the pats lose on common opponents