A question on my mind virtually every day [Would BB draft Maye]

[signbabybrady]

You're dissing Drake Maye by suggesting he was going anywhere but 3.

 

[Nikolai]

Who knows? It's one thing to sit on TV and say things and another entirely to be in that draft room.

The question on my mind virtually every day lately is whether I would book a hotel in Santa Clara or just drive in from my sister-in-laws place out in Placer County.

 

[upstater1]

First, people on both sides of this argument are talking as if their opinions are facts. They aren’t. None of us know what Belichick would have done. And there is enough evidence to support both sides of whether Belichick would have taken Maye or not.

Second, personally I think he would have traded down. I just don’t think he values QBs the way many do and teams were offering way too much for him to pass up.

People say that Belichick has never traded down a high first round pick. That is true, but he has also never taken an offensive player with a high first round pick. It was always defense. The highest he took an offensive player was Mac Jones at 15 and if you listen to Belichickstans he was pressured into taking Mac.

I just think Belichick would have felt he could win with McCarthy or Penix just as easily with Maye. I think he wouldn’t have seen enough of a difference to pass on multiple first round picks.

We will never know if Belichick would have taken Maye or not since he isn’t talking about it. That is the only fact we have.

Only thing I would add is that there weren't many picks that high.

If you establish the cutoff at 21 (I always think there are about 20 blue chippers in every draft), then it goes like this from 6 to 21:

6 defensive players, 4 offensive players.

If you limit it to much earlier than that, you have 3 defensive: Mayo, Warren and Seymour.

 

[Rob0729]

Do you think he takes JJ at 3? Because there were no trades.

Why wouldn’t there be a trade? Both the Giants and Vikings offered the Pats a boatload of picks to trade up to get Maye.

 

[upstater1]

is there evidence that BB would have taken Maye at 3? I don’t see any. There’s plenty that he wouldn’t.

Because he saw deficiencies in Maye?

I see deficiencies in Maye each and every week. It doesn't mean I don't think he's great.

You're accentuating the negative in Belichick's comments and ignoring the very glowing comments.

"He makes amazing throws."

"He can make every throw all over the field."

Not to mention the physical stuff.

You can't ignore the positive comments in order to emphasize the negative ones.

 

[Rob0729]

Only thing I would add is that there weren't many picks that high.

If you establish the cutoff at 21 (I always think there are about 20 blue chippers in every draft), then it goes like this from 6 to 21:

6 defensive players, 4 offensive players.

If you limit it to much earlier than that, you have 3 defensive: Mayo, Warren and Seymour.

Belichick has traded down with picks in the teens. So you can’t go to 21. You said he hasn’t traded high picks. So only Mayo, Seymour, and Warren count.

 

[signbabybrady]

Why wouldn’t there be a trade? Both the Giants and Vikings offered the Pats a boatload of picks to trade up to get Maye.

They clearly didn't offer enough.

 

[Rob0729]

They clearly didn't offer enough.

They didn’t offer enough for the Patriots without Belichick making the calls. How do you know that Belichick would have thought it wasn’t enough? By most accounts the Vikes offered three first round picks (two in 2024 and one in 2025) and possibly more. The Giants offered a similar value package. Just because Wolf and Mayo didn’t think it was enough, doesn’t mean Belichick would have agreed.

 

[signbabybrady]

They didn’t offer enough for the Patriots without Belichick making the calls. How do you know that Belichick would have thought it wasn’t enough? By most accounts the Vikes offered three first round picks (two in 2023 and one in 2024) and possibly more. The Giants offered a similar value package. Just because Wolf and Mayo didn’t think it was enough, doesn’t mean Belichick would have agreed.

I don't know about rumors. But as it played out no offer was big enough to trade Maye. I don't know why we'd assume the other teams would offer more or that anyone would accept less just because the person is different. But whatever helps you hate at night.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know about rumors. But as it played out no offer was big enough to trade Maye. I don't know why we'd assume the other teams would offer more or that anyone would accept less just because the person is different. But whatever helps you hate at night.

It isn’t a rumor, Albert Breer reported it.

And Minnesota, indeed, reportedly sent a mammoth offer to the Patriots.

Breer wrote, “And here’s some credit to the Patriots for having conviction in Drake Maye in 2024. The opportunity was there for a team riddled with holes to build up capital by using the No. 3 pick as a trade chip. The Vikings offered the Patriots the 11th pick, the 23rd pick and their 2025 first-round pick (along with Day 3 pick swaps that favored Minnesota) to go up eight spots to No. 3 and get Maye.”

“The Giants offered their 2025 first-rounder to move up three spots, from No. 6 to No. 3. In the Giants scenario, the Patriots would’ve had their shot at Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. In the Vikings scenario, they could’ve gotten McCarthy or Nix. And ultimately, they decided that Maye was better than those quarterbacks and the combination of draft capital they would’ve gotten after taking one of the other guys at No. 6 or No. 11.”

Original Vikings Trade Push for Drake Maye Resurfaces

Once upon a time, a Vikings trade for Drake Maye felt realistic, and now the team's pursuit of the young quarterback is back in the news.

vikingsterritory.com

And the Pats turned it down because they were convinced that Maye was special and would be a franchise QB and possibly elite. I just don’t think Belichick values QBs like that.

And stop with your BS. I am not hating on Belichick. It is all in your head. I am stating an opinion based on the facts.

 

[signbabybrady]

It isn’t a rumor, Albert Breer reported it.

And Minnesota, indeed, reportedly sent a mammoth offer to the Patriots.

Breer wrote, “And here’s some credit to the Patriots for having conviction in Drake Maye in 2024. The opportunity was there for a team riddled with holes to build up capital by using the No. 3 pick as a trade chip. The Vikings offered the Patriots the 11th pick, the 23rd pick and their 2025 first-round pick (along with Day 3 pick swaps that favored Minnesota) to go up eight spots to No. 3 and get Maye.”

“The Giants offered their 2025 first-rounder to move up three spots, from No. 6 to No. 3. In the Giants scenario, the Patriots would’ve had their shot at Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. In the Vikings scenario, they could’ve gotten McCarthy or Nix. And ultimately, they decided that Maye was better than those quarterbacks and the combination of draft capital they would’ve gotten after taking one of the other guys at No. 6 or No. 11.”

Original Vikings Trade Push for Drake Maye Resurfaces

Once upon a time, a Vikings trade for Drake Maye felt realistic, and now the team's pursuit of the young quarterback is back in the news.

vikingsterritory.com

And the Pats turned it down because they were convinced that Maye was special and would be a franchise QB and possibly elite. I just don’t think Belichick values QBs like that.

And stop with your BS. I am not hating on Belichick. It is all in your head.

You're assuming BB would take that crappy offer you're hating

 

[upstater1]

Belichick has traded down with picks in the teens. So you can’t go to 21. You said he hasn’t traded high picks. So only Mayo, Seymour, and Warren count.

Yes, I know. But as I said in my original post, when there are blue chippers available, he tends to stay in that area and doesn't leave the blue chip player zone. In other words, if he's at 13, he doesn't trade to the 20s. To me, that's a big difference. The latter 3rd is where it starts looking more like the 2nd rd.

I think Patriots fans might be surprised to see that in the meat of the draft, Belichick was more disposed to trade UP than down.

For instance:

2002: UP to get Graham
2003: UP to get Warren
2008: DOWN and ended up w/ Mayo
2009: DOWN out of 1st round (picks turned into Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman)
2010: DOWN 2x on 2 separate 1st round picks. Used ammo from those trades to trade up. (Landed Aaron Hernandez with one of the extra picks.
2010: UP to get McCourty
2010: (2nd rd) UP to get Gronkowski, but multiple picks from earlier DOWN trades used to move up.
2012: UP to get Chandler Jones
2012: UP to get Donte Hightower
2020: DOWN at pick 23 (hard to figure out who he ended up with, probably Dugger and Anfernee)
2023: DOWN and ended up with Gonzalez

It's interesting to see that every single time he traded in the first two 3rds of the 1st round, we landed a consequential player with the picks he traded with the exception of Brandon Tate.

Overall, he traded UP five times and DOWN five times.

 

[Rob0729]

You're assuming BB would take that crappy offer you're hating

Three first round picks is a crappy offer? If you weren’t convinced Maye was likely to be an elite or near elite QB, it would have been stupid to pass on that offer. And it wasn’t universally believed that Maye was going to be that guy.

 

[upstater1]

It isn’t a rumor, Albert Breer reported it.

And Minnesota, indeed, reportedly sent a mammoth offer to the Patriots.

Breer wrote, “And here’s some credit to the Patriots for having conviction in Drake Maye in 2024. The opportunity was there for a team riddled with holes to build up capital by using the No. 3 pick as a trade chip. The Vikings offered the Patriots the 11th pick, the 23rd pick and their 2025 first-round pick (along with Day 3 pick swaps that favored Minnesota) to go up eight spots to No. 3 and get Maye.”

“The Giants offered their 2025 first-rounder to move up three spots, from No. 6 to No. 3. In the Giants scenario, the Patriots would’ve had their shot at Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. In the Vikings scenario, they could’ve gotten McCarthy or Nix. And ultimately, they decided that Maye was better than those quarterbacks and the combination of draft capital they would’ve gotten after taking one of the other guys at No. 6 or No. 11.”

Original Vikings Trade Push for Drake Maye Resurfaces

Once upon a time, a Vikings trade for Drake Maye felt realistic, and now the team's pursuit of the young quarterback is back in the news.

vikingsterritory.com

And the Pats turned it down because they were convinced that Maye was special and would be a franchise QB and possibly elite. I just don’t think Belichick values QBs like that.

And stop with your BS. I am not hating on Belichick. It is all in your head. I am stating an opinion based on the facts.

There's a lot of conjecture about the Minnesota pick. If they liked McCarthy or Nix, there's no confidence that either would be there at 11. Remember, it was Penix who was the shock early pick in that draft. Nix and McCarthy were potentially top 10

 

[signbabybrady]

Three first round picks is a crappy offer? If you weren’t convinced Maye was likely to be an elite or near elite QB, it would have been stupid to pass on that offer. And it wasn’t universally believed that Maye was going to be that guy.

If that's even true it wasn't enough.

 

[upstater1]

Three first round picks is a crappy offer? If you weren’t convinced Maye was likely to be an elite or near elite QB, it would have been stupid to pass on that offer. And it wasn’t universally believed that Maye was going to be that guy.

To me it really looks like you give up your potential future QB for the 11th, and then the 23rd and a 1st the next season (which kind of devalues it to a 2nd). I would say that's light. Especially when you see WRs like Waddle going for multiple firsts.

 

[Rob0729]

Yes, I know. But as I said in my original post, when there are blue chippers available, he tends to stay in that area and doesn't leave the blue chip player zone. In other words, if he's at 13, he doesn't trade to the 20s. To me, that's a big difference. The latter 3rd is where it starts looking more like the 2nd rd.

I think Patriots fans might be surprised to see that in the meat of the draft, Belichick was more disposed to trade UP than down.

For instance:

2002: UP to get Graham
2003: UP to get Warren
2008: DOWN and ended up w/ Mayo
2009: DOWN out of 1st round (picks turned into Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman)
2010: DOWN 2x on 2 separate 1st round picks. Used ammo from those trades to trade up. (Landed Aaron Hernandez with one of the extra picks.
2010: UP to get McCourty
2010: (2nd rd) UP to get Gronkowski, but multiple picks from earlier DOWN trades used to move up.
2012: UP to get Chandler Jones
2012: UP to get Donte Hightower
2020: DOWN at pick 23 (hard to figure out who he ended up with, probably Dugger and Anfernee)
2023: DOWN and ended up with Gonzalez

It's interesting to see that every single time he traded in the first two 3rds of the 1st round, we landed a consequential player with the picks he traded with the exception of Brandon Tate.

Overall, he traded UP five times and DOWN five times.

Without you listing who he passed on to trade down, this list doesn’t mean much. Did he pass on any blue chips to trade down? I know he didn’t with Mayo.

But in 2009, Belichick traded away the 23rd pick to the Ravens who took Michael Oher and then traded again the 26th pick which was Clay Matthews. Matthews was a blue chip player and Edelman could have still been picked up without a trade.

In 2010, the Pats traded the 22nd pick which turned out to be DeMaryius Thomas and the 24th pick which was Dez Bryant. Both were blue chip players.

In 2020, he traded down from 23 to 37. The Pats could have drafted Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Love, or Tee Higgins at 23 since they all went between 23 and 37.

You forgot 2022 when the Pats traded down to draft Cole Strange. They traded down from 21 to 29 where they could have gotten Tyler Smith or Jermaine Johnson. Smith is a blue chip guard and Johnson is a very good LB.

 

[Rob0729]

To me it really looks like you give up your potential future QB for the 11th, and then the 23rd and a 1st the next season (which kind of devalues it to a 2nd). I would say that's light. Especially when you see WRs like Waddle going for multiple firsts.

The Vikings drafted McCarthy at 11. Many people on this board wanted the Pats to draft McCarthy at 3.

And speaking of Waddle, he was drafted with one of the three first round picks that Miami got from San Fran to trade up to three to draft Trey Lance. And San Fran traded first round picks over three years where the Vikes offered two firsts in the same year and one first in the next.

You are assuming that Belichick saw Maye as worlds better than McCarthy. I am not sure he would have seen it that way.

 

[signbabybrady]

Without you listing who he passed on to trade down, this list doesn’t mean much. Did he pass on any blue chips to trade down? I know he didn’t with Mayo.

But in 2009, Belichick traded away the 23rd pick to the Ravens who took Michael Oher and then traded again the 26th pick which was Clay Matthews. Matthews was a blue chip player and Edelman could have still been picked up without a trade.

In 2010, the Pats traded the 22nd pick which turned out to be DeMaryius Thomas and the 24th pick which was Dez Bryant. Both were blue chip players.

In 2020, he traded down from 23 to 37. The Pats could have drafted Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Love, or Tee Higgins at 23 since they all went between 23 and 37.

You forgot 2022 when the Pats traded down to draft Cole Strange. They traded down from 21 to 29 where they could have gotten Tyler Smith or Jermaine Johnson. Smith is a blue chip guard and Johnson is a very good LB.

Without you listing the other 20 years, this list doesn’t mean much.

 

[Rob0729]

Without you listing the other 20 years, this list doesn’t mean much.

I listed all the times the Pats traded back in he first round under Belichick. The are the only years relevant to the discussion. I was responding to the assertion that if there was a blue chip player in the spot the Pats picked, Belichick didn't trade down and he took the player. I am pointing at the blue chip players Belichick passed on to trade down.