NFL News UTEP Study: NFL has been/is in the bag for the Chiefs it would appear.

[Pape]

https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=359775

The responses are as comical as you’d expect.

 

[Pape]

 

[Nikolai]

i would like to see this report.

Seriously, I would register on a chiRefs forum and just post it, One Page a Day. That would be fun I think.

Probably should pair those drops with Hooked on Phonics or Reading Rocket for full effect...

 

[mayoclinic]

 

[mayoclinic]

NFL will punish severely, will take away Pats' 2026 1st round pick.

 

[n1997y]

Pretty interesting. I'd love to see the actual rundown. I can infer their methodology, but I have suspected that you can probably find the evidence if you looked hard enough.

What's also interesting is the conclusion that this protection stopped in 2023. Sunday night's game might suggest otherwise.

Where is the conclusion it stopped? The study period ended in 2023, because at some point they need to compile and analyze data. Unless the study showed that there was some point where the divergence from the rest of the league stopped it doesn’t show that the favoritism stopped. And conclusions of a study are usually clearly stated so they should’ve made a st atenent that it stopped if that was one of their conclusions. I’ve not read the study but would expect that such a conclusion would’ve been mentioned in news reporting about it.

 

[Nikolai]

Where is the conclusion it stopped? The study period ended in 2023, because at some point they need to compile and analyze data. Unless the study showed that there was some point where the divergence from the rest of the league stopped it doesn’t show that the favoritism stopped. And conclusions of a study are usually clearly stated so they should’ve made a st atenent that it stopped if that was one of their conclusions. I’ve not read the study but would expect that such a conclusion would’ve been mentioned in news reporting about it.

Fair call out. I did skim over it and misunderstood.

Well...not sure if that makes me feel better or worse

 

[sb1]

Here's a link to the study: Under (financial) pressure

A clear bias in favor of Mahomes as neither the Brady Pats, nor Alex Smith Chiefs (when they used to be the Chiefs instead of the Chrefs) nor any other team in these time periods saw this effect themselves. The league also fired some Chrefs officiating in the offseason and there was a reason for that.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Puts their entire dynasty into question.

 

[Lambeau12]

Puts their entire dynasty into question.

I hate KC!

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Key paragraph:

We find that the Mahomes-era Chiefs receive significantly more favorable penalty-related
outcomes in the postseason. Specifically, defensive penalties against the Mahomes-era Chiefs
offense yield 2.36 more yards (p < 0.05), are 23 percentage points more likely to result in a
first down (p < 0.01), and are 28 percentage points more likely to be a subjective penalty
call (p < 0.01) compared to the rest of the NFL in the playoffs. The Mahomes-era Chiefs
postseason effect is also economically significant. For example, we find a 31 percentage point
increase in first downs awarded via penalties in the postseason (from −8 percentage points
in the regular season to +23 percentage points in the playoffs) represents a 388% reversal
relative to the Mahomes-era Chiefs’ regular season baseline effect.
Moreover, we find that referees are more likely to call penalties that benefit the Mahomes
era Chiefs offense in high-leverage situations. When conditioning on the expected points added(EPA) potential of a play, postseason penalties tend to occur in ways that disproportionately advantage the Chiefs when they are in strong scoring position. Similarly, when conditioning on down to go, referees are more likely to call penalties that favor the Chiefs on third or fourth down, which are situations where penalties can directly extend drives. Importantly, we find no comparable postseason effect for the Brady-era Patriots, the Alex Smith–AndyReid-era Chiefs, or other recent contenders such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, or San Francisco 49ers.

 

[Nikolai]

Key paragraph:

**** me...that's a damning conclusion.

I really need to dig into the report when I get a chance. Sounds very interesting for some light reading

 

[Gumby]

Here's the key graph, so far as I could tell.

I think it would be interesting to see this same graph 3-4 times over 2001-2023 timeframe

KC vs league avg
Indy-Den (manning years) vs league avg
Pitt vs league avg
NE vs league avg

This is all about the QBs. I am convinced that GotoHell believed/believes that nfl marketing NEEDS A FACE. And he is just the guy to decide which face is one that ‚chicks dig‘ ….
So he manipulated the system to get Paymeaton, Rapistburger , and then Mahomes to fly higher than they could on their own.

 

[sb1]

Key paragraph:

Taints their whole dynasty. It really should end any conversation putting Mahomes up on Brady’s level.

 

[n1997y]

**** me...that's a damning conclusion.

I really need to dig into the report when I get a chance. Sounds very interesting for some light reading

I read about 10 pages into it. They described their data set as excluding some categories of penalties that I think would be interesting to study. Penalties affecting turnovers would seem especially interesting, for example.

It includes all regular-season and postseason games, with detailed information on play context, team designations, penalty specifications, and advanced metrics such as expected points added (EPA). We exclude observations with missing penalty yardage or down information, as well as penalties classified as dead-ball infractions (e.g., disqualifications) or those occurring on turnovers where the defensive team became the offensive team.

 

[Nikolai]

I read about 10 pages into it. They described their data set as excluding some categories of penalties that I think would be interesting to study. Penalties affecting turnovers would seem especially interesting, for example.

That would actually be very interesting, but probably labor intensive since that level of scrutiny probably requires a LOT more of a deep dive into the game situation (i.e. possibly reviewing each penalty on video). My guess is that if there's enough hullabaloo from this, then maybe they'd be willing to go back and take a look? With more money involved?

 

[sb1]

I wonder if missed calls are tracked somewhere. I’d be interested in finding out how much the ChRefs benefited from missed calls. Guessing it’s a significant amount.

 

[turkeyneck]

Puts their entire dynasty into question.

Asterisks on the whole shebang!

 

[n1997y]

Asterisks on the whole shebang!

Suspend Ma Homie for four games and dock the team their first round draft pick next year, for leagues favoritism.

 

[ViperGTS]

I doubt the league will do anything about it, although I saw someone said they fired some referees in the offseason.

I agree with those who say it taints the Chiefs but if no one sees it, what good will it do?