2026 Draft: EDGE

[manxman2601]

So if you are calling David Bailey the leading pass rusher in CFB and BPA, does that mean you would take him over Rueben Bain?

No. I was deliberate in saying pass rusher rather than edge defender. Statistically Bailey is the better pass rusher but Bain is clearly the better edge defender.

All I'm saying is that as Bailey is on track to surpass all last years pass rushers statistically, I think that merits first round consideration and that he's worthy of being considered BPA in the final third of the first round. Some evaluators seem to agree with me whilst others agree with your evaluation. We'll see how the season progresses.

 

[manxman2601]

Is this a discussion of who is the worst? Chaisson, Elliss, or Hawkins?

For me it's a discussion about how to value a position. I think pass rusher is far more valuable to a team than safety 2 or linebacker 2. Others seem to disagree.

 

[mayoclinic]

I can get on board with pass rusher having more positional value than LB in general. BB took Chandler Jones before Dont'a Hightower. If the Pats think TJ Parker is the next Chandler Jones, I would take him ahead of Sonny Styles.

Sub rushers have value, but sacks aren't everything. I agree Bailey should be in the conversation, but I personally doubt he will be BPA in the 1st round for me.

Out of curiosity, if the Pats had this choice of players, what would your ranking be:

- David Bailey
- TJ Parker
- Sonny Styles
- Mansoor Delane
- Kenyon Sadiq

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

For me it's a discussion about how to value a position. I think pass rusher is far more valuable to a team than safety 2 or linebacker 2. Others seem to disagree.

I do not view Free Safety as safety 2. I think SS and FS are two different skill sets. I do not view DE and DT as DL 1 & 2, because they are two different skill sets.

 

[manxman2601]

I can get on board with pass rusher having more positional value than LB in general. BB took Chandler Jones before Dont'a Hightower. If the Pats think TJ Parker is the next Chandler Jones, I would take him ahead of Sonny Styles.

Sub rushers have value, but sacks aren't everything. I agree Bailey should be in the conversation, but I personally doubt he will be BPA in the 1st round for me.

Out of curiosity, if the Pats had this choice of players, what would your ranking be:

- David Bailey
- TJ Parker
- Sonny Styles
- Mansoor Delane
- Kenyon Sadiq

I'd have them in the same tier. If Parker produces more pass rush between now and the end of the year he'd probably be no 1 but I don't think I can rank them. Ask me today and you might get a different answer to tomorrow or the day after. Right now, Bailey, Styles and Sadiq would top the list but I'm not sure about order. Delane's probably last just because of roster value but I like all those pretty much equally.

I do tend to think in terms of tiers rather than individual ranks for this very reason. It's too hard for me to separate players who I rank closely. This is where need comes in over BPA when I have vey similar grades on prospects and can't decide BPA amongst them.

 

[mayoclinic]

I also would not view a hybrid LB/EDGE as LB2.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have Delane, Sadiq and Styles in the same tier. Parker a tier below right now, but incomplete eval and could easily see him moving up.

Bailey's a different animal for me. The others are complete players, whereas Bailey is a less complete player who does 1 very important thing very well. I can understand the allure, but for me personally it's not enough. But if I thought Bailey could become developed into the next Dwight Freeney I would be running his card up.

 

[manxman2601]

I've been trying to dial back on the Mesidor posts lately (cue everyone rolling their eyes) but I do have a Mesidor story for you.

Trevor Sikkema is the guy who builds the PFF big board for the draft simulator and of late Mesidor was taken off it. During his latest podcast with Connor Rogers, I messaged him to ask why that had happened. He acknowledged that on the show and has now put him back on. Sadly he's back on at 113 so you can say (well I can anyway) that I'm responsible for the rise in Mesidor's stock!

Nothing to do with Mesidor being almost as productive as Bain.

OK I'm done posting about him for a while.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bastard, what did you do that for?

As far as I can tell, the PFF big board is sort of a weighted average of Trevor Sikkema's and Connor Roger's individual rankings. For example, Sikkema had Chris Johnson at 47 recently, Connor Roger's said "who the hell is that?", so the PFF board has him at 61.

 

[manxman2601]

Bastard, what did you do that for?

As far as I can tell, the PFF big board is sort of a weighted average of Trevor Sikkema's and Connor Roger's individual rankings. For example, Sikkema had Chris Johnson at 47 recently, Connor Roger's said "who the he'll is that?", so the PFF board has him at 61.

I find I'm more in sync with Rogers' grading than Sikkema's. however, they are the best draft podcast going along with Dane Brugler's Athletic one.

 

[mayoclinic]

For Manx:



I repeat, if you think you can develop him into Dwight Freeney, I'm all for it.

Disruption = production.

 

[manxman2601]

For Manx:



I repeat, if you think you can develop him into Dwight Freeney, I'm all for it.

Disruption = production.

FWIW, Bailey has a 77.6 run defense grade this year and is in the top 50th percentile for run stops so he's not a complete liability against the run. He is exclusively an outside the tackle edge guy though. you won't see him lining up opposite the tackle much.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm still of the disruption = production mindset. Williams and Barmore are so disruptive up front. I want to build on that. Rueben Bain and Arvell Reese blow up entire offensive game plans - look at how Reese (among others) affected Desmond Williams and the entire Washington offensive.

If Bailey can ve developed into a full-time EDGE disrupted, then get has 1st round value. Big "if" for me, but intriguing.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, Takeo Spikes agrees with you:



I'm still not there yet, but getting more interested.

Not all evaluations are clean. 12 years ago Pittsburgh had this disruptive undersized DT named Aaron Donald. Great production at the college level, but really undersized. Pro projection unclear. But by the time the draft came around he had passed every test, and was my highest graded defensive player. And his pro career was even better. 1st ballot future HOFer.

Bailey still a little messy for me, but intruiging. Probably I just don't see as clearly as you.

 

[manxman2601]

FWIW, Takeo Spikes agrees with you:



I'm still not there yet, but getting more interested.

Not all evaluations are clean. 12 years ago Pittsburgh had this disruptive undersized DT named Aaron Donald. Great production at the college level, but really undersized. Pro projection unclear. But by the time the draft came around he had passed every test, and was my highest graded defensive player. And his pro career was even better. 1st ballot future HOFer.

Bailey still a little messy for me, but intruiging. Probably I just don't see as clearly as you.

That's a good comp in terms of projectibility v performance.

Do I think Bailey is a slam dunk in the NFL? No, his size is a concern, but what Bailey has are elite traits and athleticism but unlike Shemar Stewart, for example, he's backing it up with performance. Now I'd rather see him put up this level of performance in the B1G or SEC than against the likes of Houston but if he was, he'd probably be a top 10 pick.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't remember his exact quote but Vrabel talked about wanting to make plays on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage which is another reason I think Bailey is a good fit for Vrabel's attacking defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm all for an attacking defense. Controlled aggression - take the attack to the opponent and disrupt them, but not at the expense of giving up contain and big plays. I hated BBDB, even when it worked.

My ideal defense would feature:

1. Pressure up the middle. More disruptive than EDGE pressure. Collapse the pocket and contain the edges and you have usually won the battle. I LOVE our IDL, would ideally like 1 more rotational disruptive penetrator (Mateen Ibirogba, please).

2. Contained EDGE pressure. Outside pressure is great, but not if you lose contain and give up chunk yardage, or if the QB can just step up into the pocket. I'm willing to give up some pressure to avoid broken plays.

3. Confusion, versatility and containment at the second level. Again, you need to contain things, but there is so much opportunity here, both at LB (Reese, Styles, Golday, Hill) and S (Downs, Wheatley) to move people around, vary things up, and create confusion.

4. Lock-down coverage with solid run support.

I look for players who I think would forward this kind of approach.

 

[manxman2601]

2. Contained EDGE pressure. Outside pressure is great, but not if you lose contain and give up chunk yardage, or if the QB can just step up into the pocket. I'm willing to give up some pressure to avoid broken plays.

This sounds like the definition of the BB bend don't break years to me. Also, QBs won't be able to step up into the pocket because Williams and Barmore are there.

 

[mayoclinic]

This sounds like the definition of the BB bend don't break years to me.

You really know how to twist the knife, don't you?

The better #1, 3 and 4 are, the more I'm willing to let loose with #2.

 

[stelfans]

I think we will be better off shopping for a new edge rusher in FA than in the draft.