Overreaction Monday 2025

[imahobgoblin]

The Pats looked like a team that should win 6-8 games. Too early to say they're as bad as last year. It's one game, which in today's NFL is an Exhibition game that counts in the standings.
Dolphins. You're right.
Jones. Yeah, you might be right.
Thornton. Yeah. I agree.
Aaron Rodgers will make the Steelers better as long as he stays healthy, which probably won't be more than half the season.

Some of us have been saying the Pats don't just look like a 6-8 win team. They actually are. It is reality that it takes more than 1 offseason to rebuild one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Its reality that our QB is 22 years old and has a foundation of absolute crap and disfunction under AVP and Mayo. Its reality that McD runs one of the most difficult offenses in the NFL and its going to take time for Drake to get it as his second nature.

 

[Bill Lee]

My overreaction is that the patriots should start considering a new qb for 2026. Maybe Maye needs a year on the bench.

My take is that outside the absolute top-shelf guys it's a pu-pu platter when it comes to QB talent these days. I watched SF (Purdy, $53M avg/yr) beat SEA (Darnold, $33M). Both those guys got big contracts and they aren't elite. Neither is Gee-No Smith ($33M).

Oddly enough, low-budget guys on rebounds like Ahole, Daniel Jones and Justin Fields looked better than some of the Brinks Trucks guys. We'll see if the pattern holds or not, but my guess is probably not.

The way I see it, we just have to play out this season with Maye. Let's see how much he can learn on the job. Wins and losses don't matter much this season. In fact more losses means better draft position. And the over-reaction to fire Josh might be the right way for things to play out. If our brain trust sees Josh can't change his offense in a way that Drake can improve yet they still have faith in Drake, Josh might get the axe in favor of a different OC whose play calling is more inline with Drake's skills.

It's kinda what you have to do if you have no prospective QB you like better than Drake, otherwise you end up spending huge money on not so huge talent. Since an OC's salary isn't part of the cap, it's more effective to replace Josh than Drake, again presuming you haven't lost faith in Drake. OTOH, consider what it might cost to find that unicorn QB that can run Josh's system. If you don't find that in the draft (and you probably won't) you end up over-paying a vet.

Look at me, getting all serious in the over-reaction thread, but that's how I roll...

Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

Ranking the top NFL Quarterback contracts and salaries in the NFL

overthecap.com

 

[Grogan14]

This was just a deep psy-op, Vrabel playing 4D chess, just looking like trash to get the guys motivated to sneak attack the rest of the league. JMD was told to shut it down in the 2nd half so they wouldn't put anything good on tape. Also they wanted to have a 4th pre-season game to work out some kinks, and to give the division a head start so that they can mount an impressive comeback.

Great job by Maye play acting like he is a bad qb....he had me convinced

 

[PatsFan2]

So, betting odds are that we'll see Gonzo at practice on Wed.

Gonzo gives us a fighter's chance against Miami on Defense. IF Gonzo's out this one could be over by halftime. No way we can cover both Hill and Waddle without him: or with the current misfits.

 

[mgteich]

Th reality is you are a clown of you really think this team in no better or worse than last year. Regardless of record, this franchise is far superior than the Mayo era. Its the stupid potheads around here toting a playoff team when we had one of the were rosters in the NFL last season. They don't get that is takes 3 seasons to rebuild a roster because they believe they are entitles to winning. Grow up.

Last time we got a new QB and had an easy schedule, we were in the playoffs in the first year and had a passing game with just under 4000 yards. We just a much better QB last year and folks think that it will take 2-3 MORE years to reach the playoffs. Was the OC and QB really that much better last time?

 

[sb1]

Here is my NOT overreaction

Just because a guy is selected 3rd overall in the draft does not guarantee he will develop into a franchise QB (see Zach Wilson who was picked 2nd).

There are many many QB's chosen in top 5 who developed into busts. More turn into busts than develop into franchise QB


Drake Maye did NOT have a great college career. He had one excellent season, but his last year in college was not great

He is NOT a can't miss prospect, because his accuracy has always been in question as have his footwork and mechanics.

He has not yet had a single clutch or high pressure drive as a Patriot with the game on the line.


He has 16 more games to prove he is NOT:

Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson

I'm confident he's not McCorkle, Lance or Trubisky. Jones had everything teed up for him at Bama and couldn't handle the Patriots when things were not set up perfectly. Lance post injury has not shown he can play in the NFL at all. Trubisky doesn't have much of an arm, shaky mechanics and apparently can't read defenses well. Also didn't have good coaching.

IMO the comparable to Maye if things go sideways is Zach Wilson. Both raw, both had very strong arms and both have/had accuracy issues sailing passes. Wilson later showed he wasn't up to the job of leading an NFL team. I'm not sure what the type of QB Maye will be yet and I don't know if McDaniels does either. I'm a little concerned that if he's not getting great coaching now his ceiling will be much lower than we thought.

 

[Grogan14]

I'm confident he's not McCorkle, Lance or Trubisky. Jones had everything teed up for him at Bama and couldn't handle the Patriots when things were not set up perfectly. Lance post injury has not shown he can play in the NFL at all. Trubisky doesn't have much of an arm, shaky mechanics and apparently can't read defenses well. Also didn't have good coaching.

IMO the comparable to Maye if things go sideways is Zach Wilson. Both raw, both had very strong arms and both have/had accuracy issues sailing passes. Wilson later showed he wasn't up to the job of leading an NFL team. I'm not sure what the type of QB Maye will be yet and I don't know if McDaniels does either.

Zach Wilson is a good POTENTIAL comparison. Hope its not true

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

What needs to be fixed is - who called the blitz on 3rd & 20 when Raiders were on their own ~35 (?)
It did seem like Williams DC is not a very natural play caller on D. bad combos, and not adjusting when getting torched in the secondary was bad.

It is hard to adjust when you have a rookie Woodson and a limited player like Hawkins. The safeties are supposed to get the secondary set - the "all new guys" approach didn't work yesterday.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Last time we got a new QB and had an easy schedule, we were in the playoffs in the first year and had a passing game with just under 4000 yards. We just a much better QB last year and folks think that it will take 2-3 MORE years to reach the playoffs. Was the OC and QB really that much better last time?

That was then and this is now. This whole roster was one of the worst in the NFL last year and Drake had to develop under AVP and Mayo. It is unrealistic to expect a roster to be fixed in one year. The offensive line is worse today. Our rookie left tackle looked like crap and has a sprained ankle. We are in year 1 of a rebuild yet again, and McD's offense is one of the hardest in the NFL. The team was better last time, by leaps and bounds. This is a team sport.

 

[libra957]

This team needs to rally around some type of strenght. What do we do well? Surely we can't be mediocre at everything. Gotta use the next few games to built an indentity.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Some of us have been saying the Pats don't just look like a 6-8 win team. They actually are. It is reality that it takes more than 1 offseason to rebuild one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Its reality that our QB is 22 years old and has a foundation of absolute crap and disfunction under AVP and Mayo. Its reality that McD runs one of the most difficult offenses in the NFL and its going to take time for Drake to get it as his second nature.

There is no way to know for sure if Drake will ever get it as his second nature. Maybe he will, maybe he won't..

Drake was a scramble and improvise guy at UNC, not a methodical, thoughtful "second nature" guy. We have not seen a QB that reads the defense, sets the offense, adjust the play at the line, and executes to plan. Yesterday was almost 100% zone defenseb by Las Vegas. It is not unreasonable to expect Drake to adjust over the game as he sees similar defenses all game long, but Drake didn't adjust, he got worse as the game went along. Drake showed zero second nature yesterday.

Just saying we have to wait three years for Drake to develop a "second nature" with very little in college or the NFL to suggest that will happen is wishful thinking at this point.

 

[Bill Lee]

I'm confident he's not McCorkle, Lance or Trubisky. Jones had everything teed up for him at Bama and couldn't handle the Patriots when things were not set up perfectly. Lance post injury has not shown he can play in the NFL at all. Trubisky doesn't have much of an arm, shaky mechanics and apparently can't read defenses well. Also didn't have good coaching.

IMO the comparable to Maye if things go sideways is Zach Wilson. Both raw, both had very strong arms and both have/had accuracy issues sailing passes. Wilson later showed he wasn't up to the job of leading an NFL team. I'm not sure what the type of QB Maye will be yet and I don't know if McDaniels does either. I'm a little concerned that if he's not getting great coaching now his ceiling will be much lower than we thought.

Good comps. IMO, Mac did not have the size or toughness or leadership skills that Maye had already shown. He did have decent processing skills when things went well around him, and McD made that happen for a season. After that, not so much.

So far ZW and Maye are a good comp in terms of on-field presentation. I do have faith that Drake is a better leader and Drake is definitely bigger, two inches taller and 11 pounds heavier according to google.

The announcers during yesterday's game claimed that McD praises Maye's football acumen. What I saw was a guy who looked at his first two reads, didn't see anything he liked, then tried to create with his feet. I don't know if that's because his first two reads were covered, or if he just wasn't reading the field correctly. Guess we gotta have some faith in Josh and Drake that he is reading things correctly and hope they can scheme things so guys get open more regularly.

 

[bobbutts]

Zach Wilson is a good POTENTIAL comparison. Hope its not true

I always blame the jets for players that fail to live up to expectations there. My doomsday Patriots overreaction take is it's not the prospects, it's that we're now another place where promising players get ruined.

 

[Zoomnbyu]

My take is that outside the absolute top-shelf guys it's a pu-pu platter when it comes to QB talent these days. I watched SF (Purdy, $53M avg/yr) beat SEA (Darnold, $33M). Both those guys got big contracts and they aren't elite. Neither is Gee-No Smith ($33M).

Oddly enough, low-budget guys on rebounds like Ahole, Daniel Jones and Justin Fields looked better than some of the Brinks Trucks guys. We'll see if the pattern holds or not, but my guess is probably not.

The way I see it, we just have to play out this season with Maye. Let's see how much he can learn on the job. Wins and losses don't matter much this season. In fact more losses means better draft position. And the over-reaction to fire Josh might be the right way for things to play out. If our brain trust sees Josh can't change his offense in a way that Drake can improve yet they still have faith in Drake, Josh might get the axe in favor of a different OC whose play calling is more inline with Drake's skills.

It's kinda what you have to do if you have no prospective QB you like better than Drake, otherwise you end up spending huge money on not so huge talent. Since an OC's salary isn't part of the cap, it's more effective to replace Josh than Drake, again presuming you haven't lost faith in Drake. OTOH, consider what it might cost to find that unicorn QB that can run Josh's system. If you don't find that in the draft (and you probably won't) you end up over-paying a vet.

Look at me, getting all serious in the over-reaction thread, but that's how I roll...

Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

Ranking the top NFL Quarterback contracts and salaries in the NFL

overthecap.com

Our Pats Life could be much worse... Color coded this to IMHO:

Clear - Good value for money
Green - Great value for money. Either rookie contract and is or could still be the guy or good enough for the money to get fans in seats, sell beer and shirts, and play mostly decent.
Yellow - Getting shakey for the money, I've never understood the upside (looking at you Burrow), or their game (Lamar/Mahomes) puts a lot of money at risk.
Red - The Jerry Zone brought to you by Dak "22% of the teams cap and hasn't gotten anywhere" Prescott.

I'm still in the Maye camp but worst case you build the team around him for another couple of years and look for a FA or draft all star to come in.

 

[Brotherblues]

Just like players need patience and resilience to improve, fans need some patience and resilience for their own sanity.

Hold on to something and watch the storm a bit before running around the deck yelling mayday.

 

[Bill Lee]

This team needs to rally around some type of strenght. What do we do well? Surely we can't be mediocre at everything. Gotta use the next few games to built an indentity.

If your overall talent level is low, indeed you can be mediocre at everything.

For instance yesterday we didn't see a single breakaway run, and we didn't often see our WRs win one-on-one battles. Our longest pass play was to Hunter Henry for 27 yards. Our longest run was 14 yards. Our longest run of the second half was four yards. And this was against the Raiders, not exactly a powerhouse.

On defense, if your overall talent is low and given it's 11 guys on the field at a time you may need to use a strength in one area (DL or DB) to cover up for a weakness in another area (LB). Our defense forced no turnovers.

For special teams, we had the missed FG and nothing remarkable on kickoff returns. In a word, mediocre.

 

[imahobgoblin]

There is no way to know for sure if Drake will ever get it as his second nature. Maybe he will, maybe he won't..

Drake was a scramble and improvise guy at UNC, not a methodical, thoughtful "second nature" guy. We have not seen a QB that reads the defense, sets the offense, adjust the play at the line, and executes to plan. Yesterday was almost 100% zone defenseb by Las Vegas. It is not unreasonable to expect Drake to adjust over the game as he sees similar defenses all game long, but Drake didn't adjust, he got worse as the game went along. Drake showed zero second nature yesterday.

Just saying we have to wait three years for Drake to develop a "second nature" with very little in college or the NFL to suggest that will happen is wishful thinking at this point.

I don't disagree, but I am not down on his either. No one wants to discuss Josh Allen threw for 3000 yards with 20TDs and 9INTs in year 2. They say, "This is the new NFL. Anything less than 15,000 yards and 80 TDS means he is washed up at 22. There are never guarantees in the NFL, but Drake has all the tools.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don't disagree, but I am not down on his either. No one wants to discuss Josh Allen threw for 3000 yards with 20TDs and 9INTs in year 2. They say, "This is the new NFL. Anything less than 15,000 yards and 80 TDS means he is washed up at 22. There are never guarantees in the NFL, but Drake has all the tools.

I agree that Drake has all the physical tools, but does he have the discernment to read defenses and adjust. That is different than having all the tools. Josh Allen grew and became a great QB because he could see film and adjust his approach on the field. We have all year to see if Drake has the same mental makeup. After yesterday Drake had the simplest of defenses and could not adjust.

The Dolphins will stack the box on early counts and play zone until Drake proves he can adjust. Mac never adjusted and still hasn't 4 years later. Hard to believe that Drake is Zach Wilson, but we don't know at this point since we have not even seen a glimmer of hope.

 

[sb1]

At least nobody said Drake was GeNeRAt1ONaL

Generational Trevor Lawrence yesterday against the worst defense in the league in 2024... With that contract. Yikes

 

[raduray]

That said, we’re not the bottom of the division. I can’t believe how atrocious Miami is.

Hold that thought 'til next week.