Who Is Our Starting Offense?

[mgteich]

I have

Campbell, Wilson, Bradbury, Onwenu, Moses
Diggs, Douglas, Hollins, Henry
Henderson
Maye

 

[TheRainMaker]

Campbell, Wilson, Bradbury, Onwenu, Moses
Diggs and Boutte on the outside, Douglas in the slot, Hollins on early downs, Henry
Rham
Maye

 

[Thelonious]

I think Boutte might sneak in there, and should. He has been around for a while now, seems more mature, plays well, has had a good camp. I would think all that should matter. I would also think that rewarding that sort of arc would help to make real/build a best-guy-plays-however-he-got-here-and-however-much-he-is-paid culture. I hear the new regime cares about that sort of thing.

 

[Wozzy]

Westover at FB seems more likely than 3 WR’s but who knows. Josh will want a FB, Vrabel wants to run the ball.

Just as an aside, “starters” is largely overrated, football is about matchups.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Starting is tough, and almost pointless as we sub different packages in/out.

Now if I was to guess the top 11 in regards to snap count week 1:

Maye
Stevenson
Diggs/Pop/Hollins/Henry
same Oline as mentioned in the first post

 

[jdlboot14]

Ya, Stevenson will certainly get the first few snaps at RB and therefore, technically "start".
But I do not think he'll have most snaps at RB for the game.

Also, I think Boutte will have more snaps than Hollins.
Big question is - how productive Diggs is, and if Chism or Williams see the field at all, and who first?

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Ya, Stevenson will certainly get the first few snaps at RB and therefore, technically "start".
But I do not think he'll have most snaps at RB for the game.

Also, I think Boutte will have more snaps than Hollins.
Big question is - how productive Diggs is, and if Chism or Williams see the field at all, and who first?

I doubt they dress 6 WRs, so I would guess Chism sits this week and Williams dresses.

 

[n1997y]

I doubt they dress 6 WRs, so I would guess Chism sits this week and Williams dresses.

I think, not guess, it will be the other way round.

We will see.

 

[Raccoonsuit]

I have

Campbell, Wilson, Bradbury, Onwenu, Moses
Diggs, Douglas, Hollins, Henry
Henderson
Maye

I have zero faith in Hollins as a receiver so if put Boutte in there as his replacement.

Rhamondre is gonna lose a ton of snaps to Henderson but everything wise looks ️

 

[Ring 6]

I have

Campbell, Wilson, Bradbury, Onwenu, Moses
Diggs, Douglas, Hollins, Henry
Henderson
Maye

Boutte is a starter
Hooper is a “starter” as 2 TE
Stevenson is a starter. Henderson is a “starter” in sub.

 

[signbabybrady]

Boutte is a starter
Hooper is a “starter” as 2 TE
Stevenson is a starter. Henderson is a “starter” in sub.

You can't have 2 TEs, 3 WRs, and 2 RBs on the field at once so a couple someones are not starters in the group you mention. I'd consider the 2 WRs ahead of Boutte, Henry/Hooper, and one of the backs to be our starters that's 5. If you want to call Boutte a starter instead of Hooper that seems fair enough I'm not sure who will get more reps. In the past McD might have started a FB instead of the 3 wr or 2nd TE but since our FB got hurt I could see McD making 2 TE more prevalent or a 3 wide. I suppose he could even just start Westover at FB.

I will admit I'm getting a little anal and its been common of late probably even the last 10-15 years to just consider the 3rd WR and the nickel a starter so I wouldn't argue calling 12 players a starter but throwing in the second RB as a 13th starter too I think is pushing it a bit.

I'd even accept the 2 backs being called starters but not at the same time as 2 TEs and 3 WRs. Especially given the skill level of our skill players this might actually make sense for how the reps get divided.

 

[mgteich]

You can't have 2 TEs, 3 WRs, and 2 RBs on the field at once so a couple someones are not starters in the group you mention. I'd consider the 2 WRs ahead of Boutte, Henry/Hooper, and one of the backs to be our starters that's 5. If you want to call Boutte a starter instead of Hooper that seems fair enough I'm not sure who will get more reps. In the past McD might have started a FB instead of the 3 wr or 2nd TE but since our FB got hurt I could see McD making 2 TE more prevalent or a 3 wide. I suppose he could even just start Westover at FB.

I will admit I'm getting a little anal and its been common of late probably even the last 10-15 years to just consider the 3rd WR and the nickel a starter so I wouldn't argue calling 12 players a starter but throwing in the second RB as a 13th starter too I think is pushing it a bit.

I'd even accept the 2 backs being called starters but not at the same time as 2 TEs and 3 WRs. Especially given the skill level of our skill players this might actually make sense for how the reps get divided.

I would think that 3 WR's is the base set in the NFL, although obviously running teams can start 2 TE's instead, as Andy does.

One of Andy's ideas seems to be that Boutte is one our two top WR's and one that will start instead of Douglas or Hollins.

 

[signbabybrady]

I would think that 3 WR's is the base set in the NFL, although obviously running teams can start 2 TE's instead, as Andy does.

One of Andy's ideas seems to be that Boutte is one our two top WR's and one that will start instead of Douglas or Hollins.

Yeah I'd probably call WR3 a starter before TE2 or a FB/RB2. But of course this varies from team to team.

Intentionally left Hollins out because we knew 6's feelings on that.

I feel pretty confident Diggs and Pop are the top 2 starters at WR. Henry starts at TE1 and whoever you want to call the starter Rham or Henderson.

that makes 4 plus Maye and 5 OL and then I don't really care who we call the 11th starter just can't be 14 guys on the field. I'll accept the 12th man too.

 

[Ring 6]

I would think that 3 WR's is the base set in the NFL, although obviously running teams can start 2 TE's instead, as Andy does.

One of Andy's ideas seems to be that Boutte is one our two top WR's and one that will start instead of Douglas or Hollins.

Instead of Hollins. “Starting” is only playing the first play. I’m talking about playing time.

I expect for skill position players we will see roughly:

(There are 5 per play)
Diggs 90%
Douglas 75%
Boutte 75%
Henry 80%
Hooper 40%
Stevenson 50%
Henderson 50%

That leaves 40% for Williams, Hollins, Westover, Chism and Gibson.

 

[mgteich]

Yeah I'd probably call WR3 a starter before TE2 or a FB/RB2. But of course this varies from team to team.

Intentionally left Hollins out because we knew 6's feelings on that.

I feel pretty confident Diggs and Pop are the top 2 starters at WR. Henry starts at TE1 and whoever you want to call the starter Rham or Henderson.

that makes 4 plus Maye and 5 OL and then I don't really care who we call the 11th starter just can't be 14 guys on the field. I'll accept the 12th man too.

Yes, the open question for me is the 11th starter.
=========================
There are many options, listed below in my order of preference

Hollins (my choice)
Hooper (as a 2nd TE)
Boutte (as a 3rd WR)
Henderson or Stevenson (as a 2nd RB)
Westover (as a FB)

Some might even not include Douglas among the starters.

 

[Ring 6]

Instead of Hollins. “Starting” is only playing the first play. I’m talking about playing time.

I expect for skill position players we will see roughly:

(There are 5 per play)
Diggs 90%
Douglas 75%
Boutte 75%
Henry 80%
Hooper 40%
Stevenson 50%
Henderson 50%

That leaves 40% for Williams, Hollins, Westover, Chism and Gibson.
.

Last year was roughly
Stevenson 55%
Gibson 33%
Hooper 52%
Henry. 79, but 81% when active
Boutte 69 but 79% when active
Douglass 62.

If those remain the same (and increase Stevenson+ Henderson to 100 instead of 88 with Stevenson and Gibson) it leaves 1.25 snaps per play.
Diggs figures to take most is than leaving maybe 30 snaps split among Williams, Westover, Gibson, Chism and holllins.

I don’t see Hollins taking snaps away from Boutte. That would be ridiculous

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, the open question for me is the 11th starter.
=========================
There are many options, listed below in my order of preference

Hollins (my choice)
Hooper (as a 2nd TE)
Boutte (as a 3rd WR)
Henderson or Stevenson (as a 2nd RB)
Westover (as a FB)

Some might even not include Douglas among the starters.

Why would Hollins be your choice? You think Hollins is a better WR than Boutte? And if you are going to give bogus blocking argument then play 2 TEs or a FB.
What exactly do you see in Hollins?

 

[Ring 6]

You can't have 2 TEs, 3 WRs, and 2 RBs on the field at once so a couple someones are not starters in the group you mention. I'd consider the 2 WRs ahead of Boutte, Henry/Hooper, and one of the backs to be our starters that's 5. If you want to call Boutte a starter instead of Hooper that seems fair enough I'm not sure who will get more reps. In the past McD might have started a FB instead of the 3 wr or 2nd TE but since our FB got hurt I could see McD making 2 TE more prevalent or a 3 wide. I suppose he could even just start Westover at FB.

I will admit I'm getting a little anal and its been common of late probably even the last 10-15 years to just consider the 3rd WR and the nickel a starter so I wouldn't argue calling 12 players a starter but throwing in the second RB as a 13th starter too I think is pushing it a bit.

I'd even accept the 2 backs being called starters but not at the same time as 2 TEs and 3 WRs. Especially given the skill level of our skill players this might actually make sense for how the reps get divided.

“Starter” means based upon package.
Stevenson is the starter but Henderson is the “starter” in passing groups.
Boutte and Douglass are starters but Hooper is the “starter” in 2 TE packages.

3 different packages result in 8 guys rotating in 5 spots.

I don’t see 2 WRs ahead of Boutte. He will get the second most snaps of all the skill position players, with Henry and Douglass close.

If you want to put it a different way
Diggs
Boutte
Henry
Stevenson/Henderson
Will be on the field for 80%+ of the snaps each and the 5th guy will depend upon scheme, Douglass is 3 wide, Hooper if 2 TE Westover if FB

The rest get backup snaps.

 

[signbabybrady]

“Starter” means based upon package.
Stevenson is the starter but Henderson is the “starter” in passing groups.
Boutte and Douglass are starters but Hooper is the “starter” in 2 TE packages.

3 different packages result in 8 guys rotating in 5 spots.

I don’t see 2 WRs ahead of Boutte. He will get the second most snaps of all the skill position players, with Henry and Douglass close.

If you want to put it a different way
Diggs
Boutte
Henry
Stevenson/Henderson
Will be on the field for 80%+ of the snaps each and the 5th guy will depend upon scheme, Douglass is 3 wide, Hooper if 2 TE Westover if FB

The rest get backup snaps.

Ive never quite heard it put that way, starter by package. I see what you're doing there though.

Anyway I'm more shocked to see you have Boutte ahead of Pop? I haven't really seen anyone put Boutte ahead of him?

If anything I could see Diggs a player with more mileage coming off an injury as the one that could get passed by one of the other kids as the year goes on.

Not that I think Pop has any kind of lock but he's been the one who's produced most here over the last 2 seasons. But even more than that I see him as the one who is most ready to take that next leap, I think this system seems like a great fit, and I think he had the best summer.

Diggs couldn't do much more than he did given his rehab and since he's ready to go and given he's the veteran and best at his peak I still see him as the top wr.

So that how I land on Diggs and Pop as our starters.

I'm going to leave out who I think 3 is lol.

 

[signbabybrady]

Last year was roughly
Stevenson 55%
Gibson 33%
Hooper 52%
Henry. 79, but 81% when active
Boutte 69 but 79% when active
Douglass 62.

If those remain the same (and increase Stevenson+ Henderson to 100 instead of 88 with Stevenson and Gibson) it leaves 1.25 snaps per play.
Diggs figures to take most is than leaving maybe 30 snaps split among Williams, Westover, Gibson, Chism and holllins.

I don’t see Hollins taking snaps away from Boutte. That would be ridiculous

Now this is some great logic. Love the way you break this down if you mixed in the rushing carries then the top 5 percentages would be your starters.

Now we can argue who exactly we think we'll get those reps. Tomorrow we'll find out how it begins but some of these kids should be better by the end of the year than right now so plenty of opportunities to carve out roles.

Henderson looks like he has potential to be special and Diggs has been before. I see Pop as the clear 2 and my opinion on 3 shows how big a gap there is because I think it's still Hollins. Henry is very good and Hooper is definitely TE2 and pretty good himself too. Than Rham definitely has a certain amount reps coming his way (so long as he holds onto the ball).

And then I see the rest as fairly wide open and any of them can easily push Hollins and I very much hope/expect they will because I don't really think he's that good and I fully agreed with all your statistical analysis on his game except that I just don't think someone has passed him yet and that's why I don't want to get bogged down on Hollins I see him as the pivot point or entry point to more reps for the younger guys and I don't see him as a blocking point but as an easy bar to attain and hopefully far exceed.