Post Your Way too Early Season Predictions For Maye/Receivers

[BobDigital]

What has Chism proven?

"Diggs, Williams, Douglas, Boutte, Chism all have proven something or shown enough to this point"

I think Chism has shown enough in this point to project him as more valuable than Hollins. It comes down to a cost/benefit analysis for me.

Is the potential of Chism based on what he has shown > than actual value we can assume Hollins will bring when healthy based on his history.

The fact is I don't care what he is being paid. Hollins on field production is barely above JAG level. He will never be better than he is right now. He has hit all his potential. There is no where to go but down. He is what he has shown to be. And while i don't wish him injury. If he were to shatter his leg tomorrow and be unable to play ever again, the amount of value the Patriots lose is incredibly small and practically entirely replaceable, even if Chism isn't here. And i say this as someone thinking Hollins should right now stick and i'm not looking to cut him. But i have no illusions about what he is and what he brings.

Chism has shown a lot of potential, has rare traits and i have reason to believe (you can disagree) his upside is higher than Hollins overall ability. Yes it is only OTAs. I know he hasn't played a snap. I don't care. I believe from what i have seen his potential means more than Hollins actual proven value.

Weighing potential is fair and reasonable. The first overall pick before they play a snap is completely unproven, yet they are kept and far valued over guys who have been in this league for years and produce much more than Hollins. And that is totally understandable and the way it should be.

While i won't say i don't care where someone is picked, cause i do,(and usually it is an indicator of talent) I wouldn't just completely dismiss what is shown on the practice field. Chism didn't just do well.. He didn't just pop. He was the most targeted WR in OTAs. Caught more catches than any WR in OTAs. Popped and got open a ton. That doesn't mean everything... but let's not pretend it means nothing.

 

[Real fan 02]

My bad I guess I over stated your stance.

Patriots post-minicamp 53-man roster projection

The toughest cuts are at wide receiver in our latest Patriots 53-man roster projection. How many picks from the 2024 NFL Draft make it?

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[cstjohn17]

Love the optimism and the schedule favors the Pats but I think with this collection of talent we should be happy with a league average or slightly better.

My guesses are 22 PPG, 3,600 yards, 21 TDs / 14 INTs and then break things down from there.

2025 NFL Offense Total Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Total team stat leaders for the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

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NFL Conference Passing Stat Leaders, 2025 Regular Season - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Discover the Offense Passing stat leaders of the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

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[Ring 6]

"Diggs, Williams, Douglas, Boutte, Chism all have proven something or shown enough to this point"

I think Chism has shown enough in this point to project him as more valuable than Hollins. It comes down to a cost/benefit analysis for me.

Is the potential of Chism based on what he has shown > than actual value we can assume Hollins will bring when healthy based on his history.

The fact is I don't care what he is being paid. Hollins on field production is barely above JAG level. He will never be better than he is right now. He has hit all his potential. There is no where to go but down. He is what he has shown to be. And while i don't wish him injury. If he were to shatter his leg tomorrow and be unable to play ever again, the amount of value the Patriots lose is incredibly small and practically entirely replaceable, even if Chism isn't here. And i say this as someone thinking Hollins should right now stick and i'm not looking to cut him. But i have no illusions about what he is and what he brings.

Chism has shown a lot of potential, has rare traits and i have reason to believe (you have disagree) his upside is higher than Hollins overall. Yes it is only OTAs. I know he hasn't played a snap. I don't care. I believe from what i have seen his potential means more than Hollins actual proven value.

Weighing potential is fair and reason. The first overall pick before they play a snap is completely unproven, yet they are kept and far valued over guys who have been in this league for years and produce much more than Hollins. And that is totally understandable and the way it should be.

While i will say i don't care where someone is picked, cause i do and usually it is an indicator of talent, I would just completely dismiss what is shown on the practice field. Chism didn't just do well.. He didn't just pop. He was the most targeted WR in OTAs. Caught more catches than any WR in OTAs. Popped and got open a ton. That doesn't mean everything... but let's not pretend it means nothing.

What has he shown? Camp hasn’t even started.
Hollins is a proven veteran, 32 teams chose not to draft Chism.

You keep saying “from what you have seen” please describe what you have seen. Are you just going by what you read about OTAs?

Look it would be great to see this guy shock the world, but the odds are really heavily against it, especially against the idea that he is going to put up 400-500 receiving yards as a rookie UDFA with one of the worst 40 times of any NFL WR coming from a low competition level.
The odds are stacked against him.

 

[WazzuWheatfarmer]

I don’t think Maye will get to 4000 because I think NE will run the ball a lot. I am thinking around 3600 yards passing for him. Around 35 TDs and 10 INT. I thing Diggs with around 1200 yards receiving and Kyle Williams gets around 800. Hunter Henry brings in 10 TDs

 

[Real fan 02]

Love the optimism and the schedule favors the Pats but I think we this collection talent we should be happy with a league average or slightly better.

My guesses are 22 PPG, 3,600 yards, 21 TDs / 14 INTs and then break things down from there.

2025 NFL Offense Total Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Total team stat leaders for the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

NFL Conference Passing Stat Leaders, 2025 Regular Season - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Discover the Offense Passing stat leaders of the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

Running.. the ball will be key. If we can run the ball we can do anything on offense. The OL has been improved that alone will help the running game. 3rd down has been misery for us last few seasons. Staying in 3rd and short means getting chunk yards on 1st and 2nd down.

We have the capability to do that. Drake csn convert 3rd downs on his own.. as he's a dual threat QB. Diggs Will be such a benefit for Drake whenever everything is covered.

 

[Ring 6]

Running.. the ball will be key. If we can run the ball we can do anything on offense. The OL has been improved that alone will help the running game. 3rd down has been misery for us last few seasons. Staying in 3rd and short means getting chunk yards on 1st and 2nd down.

We have the capability to do that. Drake csn convert 3rd downs on his own.. as he's a dual threat QB. Diggs Will be such a benefit for Drake whenever everything is covered.

If we try to run in 1st and 2nd down in order to get 3rd short as our overriding offensive philosophy we won’t be much better than last year.
Not sure why you are saying chunk plays get you to 3rd and short, chunk plays are first downs.

The correct use of the running game is to secure passing game, not to dunk and dunk and have to convert 7 3rd downs every drive, but to set up chunk plays in the passing game on 1st and 2nd downs.

The most important statistic for an offense (aside from points and turnovers) is 1st downs made on 1st and 2nd down.

Even in the Brady years our offense was at its worst when we tightened up and tried to play for 3rd and short all day.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Efton Chism-150 receptions, 1,400 yards, 10 Touchdowns, OROY.

 

[n1997y]

Efton Chism-150 receptions, 1,400 yards, 10 Touchdowns, OROY.

1400 yards?

Don’t bogart, I’d like a toke. Obviously doesn’t need to be a big hit even.

 

[Huckleberry1]

1400 yards?

Don’t bogart, I’d like a toke. Obviously doesn’t need to be a big hit even.

Don’t forget OROY.

 

[n1997y]

Don’t forget OROY.

That may not be entirely crazy.

Except I think his teammate at WR might have a better chance,

 

[captain stone]

My prediction for our QB & his WR "weppunz":

 

[jdlboot14]

I think 4000 yards for Maye is certainly doable this year. But I also expect at least 14 INT's. That's going to be the big thing for him, is to limit those risky throws, and we're still bound to have communication & chemistry issues with these pass catchers.
I would love for him to get to 30 TD's, but we'll see. I bet a lot of short yardage TD's go to RB's, and Maye might even run for ~4-6 TD's on the ground.

 

[Real fan 02]

If we try to run in 1st and 2nd down in order to get 3rd short as our overriding offensive philosophy we won’t be much better than last year.
Not sure why you are saying chunk plays get you to 3rd and short, chunk plays are first downs.

The correct use of the running game is to secure passing game, not to dunk and dunk and have to convert 7 3rd downs every drive, but to set up chunk plays in the passing game on 1st and 2nd downs.

The most important statistic for an offense (aside from points and turnovers) is 1st downs made on 1st and 2nd down.

Even in the Brady years our offense was at its worst when we tightened up and tried to play for 3rd and short all day.

Vrabel said he wants to be good and win the LOS. That is running the ball and stopping it on defense. We have 3 solid backs in rham, Gibson and Henderson.

All 3 provide different looks to a defensive front and have different skill sets. Getting 4 yards on 1st down and trying to stay out of 3rd and long will go a long way to being a top offense. The difference here is Drake is a dual threat QB, defenses have to worry about him taking off on 3rd and short or 3rd and 5 as he's shown he can do that.

Good offenses don't see 3rd down much. They are constantly in 1st and 2nd downs as they can hit big plays often.

 

[varjao]

I’m really worried that his tendency to try to play hero ball last season will turn out to be a part of his nature not just a reaction to the hot mess Mayo created, and that it will in the long run be a flaw that prevents developing a strong team around him. So I’m really hoping Josh keeps the passing game under wraps until the team identity has developed as more of a team and less of Drake Maye’s supporting cast.

That was fruit of the environment , that team was so disgusting he tried to save something out of every play. I'm pretty sure Vrabel will clean that mess first thing.

 

[The Gr8est]

We've got over a month's worth of time to kill. This is the perfect time to throw out random predictions ahead of training camp. I didn't post mine claiming any accuracy, and this was just meant to be a fun random exercise. And I screwed it up anyway having left two guys out initially.

If I was making a true prediction, there would have been more time and math. Which, as you mentioned, would have also been challenging given the additional uncertainty at other positions.

 

[Real fan 02]

I just hope Josh keeps his perspective focused on team success not just maximizing Drake Maye as the next stellar QB.

In other words, give primary attention to making the running game a weapon, and the favored weapon, even if that means Drake isn’t the marquee poster child for the Patriots offense. To me that’s the only way Drake will learn he doesn’t have to play hero, that in fact he should resist that temptation as much as possible to let his teammates make plays.

I’m really worried that his tendency to try to play hero ball last season will turn out to be a part of his nature not just a reaction to the hot mess Mayo created, and that it will in the long run be a flaw that prevents developing a strong team around him. So I’m really hoping Josh keeps the passing game under wraps until the team identity has developed as more of a team and less of Drake Maye’s supporting cast.

I’m thinking back to how they were introduced as a team for Super Bowl XXXVI, and thinking Drake Maye’s hero ball is incompatible with that team spirit. One thing I’ll be watching to see is whether Josh nips that problem in the bud. If he doesn’t it’ll be the last and most serious damage Mayo does to the franchise.

The hero ball aspect came from his natural instincts of him trying to win and make a play for his team. I believe Drake has learned alot from last season.

Josh and Vrabel are the perfect guys to maximize his potential and give him what he needs to be a great player. Im impressed by what Drake was able to do last season all things considered.

 

[pazrul72]

I think Maye makes a huge step forward but it won't be reflected in his numbers. Yes the schedule looks easy, and yes the guys around him have been upgraded to at least competent, but that's from one of the worst offenses in the NFL. You don't go from one of the worst to one of the best in one season. Lots of rookies, new guys, and a new offensive system is going to take time to gel and I feel hopeful for league average. That gel time and Maye still playing a little too much hero ball leads to more INTs then most people have been predicting. Honestly anything close to 2 TDs to every Int is damn good. 3 or 4 to 1 is Elite. These numbers are give or take like 70 catches for Diggs could be 67 or 74 but around 70 is what I think he will get.

Maye 340/500 68% 3600 yards 30 TDs 15 INTs
Diggs 70 catches 800 yards 6 TD
Williams 35 catches 450 yards 4 TD
Pop 75 catches 700 yards 2 TD
Henry 50 catches 500 yards 8 TD
Hooper 40 catches 400 yards 4 TD
Henderson 30 catches 250 yards 2 TD
Boutte 20 catches 300 yards 4 TD
Hollins/Stevenson/Gibs 20 catches 200 yards (not each, combined but didn't want to break it down, basically each get a catch here or there for average yardage)

 

[Zoomnbyu]

@Real fan 02

I think you both are little too dug in on your guys. Which is fine have your binkies and debate on.

I think they both are in a group of 6 players fighting for the last 2 spots in the WR room (maybe 3 spots if we carry 6). Diggs, Pop, and Williams aren't going anywhere so 2 or 3 more out of Hollins, Chism, Bourne, Boutte, Polk, and Baker. And from where I sit I don't see any reason to automatically put 1 of the 6 on the roster or not. They all seem fairly equally likely to make it except maybe Baker is the least likely of the 6 (but that also makes him the most likely not to get poached so he could be considered more likely for our PS just to overthink a little).

It's wide open gentlemen. I would stay flexible on my opinions on any of them.

Don't bring that reasonableness in here....

 

[h0c2000]

Diggs is suspended for at least 1 game and Maye is on IR by week 12.