Most Likely Trade Down Partner

[raduray]

We have a history of outsmarting ourselves, gambling against the consensus with "clever" draft moves, and failing. We have improved the defense and our receiving corps through free agency, our RB's and TE's are OK, and coaching is a big improvement. This team is better on paper than last year's. But we still have a big hole that needs to be filled, at left tackle. Keep it simple and just take the best available at that position when it's our turn at 4.

Edit: my original post mistakenly said right tackle. Corrected it to left tackle.

 

[raduray]

Ummm, wrong side, the hole at RT was filled by the signing of Morgan Moses. The glaring need is at Left Tackle.

My bad. I meant left tackle. Fixed it.

 

[mgteich]

I put other for none. It's not happening

If Carter and Hunter are gone, I think that a trade with LV is very likely.

However, I could see Vrabel have Campbell as the BPA and taking him to be sure to get him.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Anybody that wants the running back from Boise, needs to get ahead of the raiders!!!! Is that Chicago?

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I can see it now:

A phone call comes into Patriots HQ:

"Hi Bob, it is your buddy Jerry Jones. Say, why don't we swap first round picks and I will throw in my 6'th round pick as a bonus?"

"Hi Coach Jerry, Sounds good, but I don't want to be a pushover. I would accept nothing less than your 5'th"

"Hmmm....I hate to be bullied around like this, but I will throw in my 5th (a compensatory) pick instead"

"Done deal"

"Hey Elliot and Mike, I just pulled off a great deal..."



But seriously, I have a lost a lot of confidence in the Patriots ability to make deals after getting fleeced on the Milton deal. Obviously it would not be as bad as the above, but "get used to disappointment" if the Patriots trade down.

 

[Ring 6]

We have a history of outsmarting ourselves, gambling against the consensus with "clever" draft moves, and failing. We have improved the defense and our receiving corps through free agency, our RB's and TE's are OK, and coaching is a big improvement. This team is better on paper than last year's. But we still have a big hole that needs to be filled, at left tackle. Keep it simple and just take the best available at that position when it's our turn at 4.

Edit: my original post mistakenly said right tackle. Corrected it to left tackle.

What history of failing are you referring to?
If you need a LT and the LT you would get at 15 is very similar to who you would take at 4, you could pick up valuable picks by trading down. Why wouldn’t you do that?

 

[Steve102]

 

[TommyD4207]

 

[raduray]

What history of failing are you referring to?
If you need a LT and the LT you would get at 15 is very similar to who you would take at 4, you could pick up valuable picks by trading down. Why wouldn’t you do that?

Because the LT you think you'll get at 15 might be scooped up by someone else before you get to 15.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I don't think a trade partner is going to be there and we end up picking at 4.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I expect to pick at #4, but I kind of disagree with the dismissal of the idea that there will be trade back opportunities. I don't think it's unfathomable that some team in the top 10 could fall absolutely head over heels in love with one of Ashton Jeanty or Mason Graham far and above any other prospects. Heck, for all the handwringing we've done about if there's a franchise LT on the board, it's possible that we ultimately reach the conclusion of "no" which means we'd be lower on Campbell/Membou while some other team might decide they are and covet one of them.

I'm skeptical that they'd get some mega trade offer for anyone other than Hunter/Carter (or Ward if he fell obviously) and I'm even skeptical they'd get one for Hunter/Carter because I'm not sure either is THAT type of non-QB prospect even if the clear head of this class. BUT, if our front office is happy coming away with Tet, Warren, Jalon Walker, Jihad Campbell, or maybe even they like Simmons/Banks at LT over the supposed top 2... then I think there could be opportunities to move down for something that moves the needle.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Schefler:

On the other side of things, the Steelers (No. 21) are among the teams interested in moving back from their first-round slot. That list also includes the Jaguars (5), Panthers (8), 49ers (11), Falcons (15), Seahawks (18), Buccaneers (19) and Vikings (24), who currently have four picks, the fewest any team.
There has been, however, a lack of teams willing to trade up -- at least so far. Denver is one of those: The Bronco have made inquiries about moving up in Round 1, according to sources. But there aren't many others. This always could change when players start falling and teams are on the clock.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

What history of failing are you referring to?
If you need a LT and the LT you would get at 15 is very similar to who you would take at 4, you could pick up valuable picks by trading down. Why wouldn’t you do that?

Obviously when framed like that you take the trade back. The problem is deciding with absolute conviction that the LT you want at #15 is going to be there. If you take that trade back, you absolutely need to be ok missing out on that LT you're planning to take at #15. Especially at a premium position like that because if you like him enough to take him #15 there's no reason to believe someone else wouldn't like him enough to take him #14.

 

[Steve102]

Schefler:

On the other side of things, the Steelers (No. 21) are among the teams interested in moving back from their first-round slot. That list also includes the Jaguars (5), Panthers (8), 49ers (11), Falcons (15), Seahawks (18), Buccaneers (19) and Vikings (24), who currently have four picks, the fewest any team.
There has been, however, a lack of teams willing to trade up -- at least so far. Denver is one of those: The Bronco have made inquiries about moving up in Round 1, according to sources. But there aren't many others. This always could change when players start falling and teams are on the clock.

Dropping from 4 to 20 would likely mean missing out on Campbell, Banks, Simmons, Warren, Tet, and maybe Egbuka and Golden as well. You could even miss out on Conerly. That's a huge drop. You'd have to get 20, 51, 85 and maybe a high pick next year. Maybe 20, next years #1 and 85, but I don't love that kind of drop.

 

[TommyD4207]

Dropping from 4 to 20 would likely mean missing out on Campbell, Banks, Simmons, Warren, Tet, and maybe Egbuka and Golden as well. You could even miss out on Conerly. That's a huge drop. You'd have to get 20, 51, 85 and maybe a high pick next year. Maybe 20, next years #1 and 85, but I don't love that kind of drop.

I don't think you miss out on Simmons. I have the feeling he's going to drop like a rock. He'll be a steal for someone who doesn't have an immediate need at LT.

 

[mgteich]

Dropping from 4 to 20 would likely mean missing out on Campbell, Banks, Simmons, Warren, Tet, and maybe Egbuka and Golden as well. You could even miss out on Conerly. That's a huge drop. You'd have to get 20, 51, 85 and maybe a high pick next year. Maybe 20, next years #1 and 85, but I don't love that kind of drop.

I don't know Vrabel's board. I have been thinking that 9 is as low as is reasonable to get a red-chipper that we really want. Perhaps 11 is the right answer.

 

[Steve102]

I don't think you miss out on Simmons. I have the feeling he's going to drop like a rock. He'll be a steal for someone who doesn't have an immediate need at LT.

Well, there's a lot of reports now that he might not be ready, or the same player. It's all a little "off" to me. Didn't he originally carry a R2 grade after the injury and then he's moved up as it's closer? Now dropping again at the finish line?

I still think by the time they pick at #38, the top 6 tackles are gone. Even if Simmons is last.

I don't know Vrabel's board. I have been thinking that 9 is as low as is reasonable to get a red-chipper that we really want. Perhaps 11 is the right answer.

I am with you on that. I don't want to drop any lower than 10-12.

 

[Ring 6]

Because the LT you think you'll get at 15 might be scooped up by someone else before you get to 15.

Then trade to wherever you are comfortable that guy or a similar guy will be.
In this case you have Campbell, membou, banks, Simmons all as viable picks and won’t all be gone.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Then trade to wherever you are comfortable that guy or a similar guy will be.
In this case you have Campbell, membou, banks, Simmons all as viable picks and won’t all be gone.

Trades only work if there's a trade partner. This isn't a draft where teams in every part of the first round are itching to trade up. If the only team looking to move up is Denver, the Pats should just make the pick.

 

[Ring 6]

Trades only work if there's a trade partner. This isn't a draft where teams in every part of the first round are itching to trade up. If the only team looking to move up is Denver, the Pats should just make the pick.

Teams move up for a player not for the overall quality of the draft.
Some teams will live a player at 4 that they will want to move up for. It doesn’t take a consensus it takes 1 team.