Safe, conservative draft picks

[TommyD4207]

BPA is different for different teams.

To me, the strategy means picking one of the top 3 or so players on our board, one that it valued by others.

Some would have CAMPBELL as their BPA. Some would have Jeanty, Graham or even Membou.

Why shouldn't we pick one of the BPA's considering that the player also fills a position of need?

Because Campbell's simply not good enough to take at 4.

 

[dliverey44]

I'll concede the 'arm reach issues are ridiculous' if you can name me any starting left tackle who has had shorter than 33" arms this century.

Bernard Raimann

 

[Triumph]

Very high I expect

Yup.

At least he faced Big 10 talent.

 

[Ring 6]

Polk would have been a fine pick, but through no fault of his own, he was drafted too high. A 4th-round pick or so was where he belonged; if the Patriots wanted him so badly, they could have waited and got him much later than the second round.. The other part of this monumental screwup would not taking McConkey and trading down. Please, Patriots no more tricks; just take the obvious players.

I agree; Harris is too slow for my taste, but there should a quick, agile WR early in the Second

He had the worst season ever by a wr. That wouldn’t make him a good pick in the 4th round.
Where in the world do you get the idea that you know when a player would have lasted until?

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

He had the worst season ever by a wr. That wouldn’t make him a good pick in the 4th round.
Where in the world do you get the idea that you know when a player would have lasted until?

Maybe he would have been decent player if he was WR number 3 or 4 and did not have to face top CBs. What if he still sucked? Well better to waste a 4 than a 2. It is astounding to me that almost everyone on this forum, and we are not close to being professional scouts, would have taken McConkey. He fell right into the Patriots lap, but the Patriots did not do the obvious thing. Instead they tried to get cute and trade down; surely they must have known that the Chargers would take McConkey; if not, they were idiots hoping that McConkey would still be there. If they did know and let it happen anyway, then they are idiots for bad scouting.

 

[State]

What about aspiring rappers?

 

[State]

Yadda yadda yadda...
Everyone is a fkn genius, yet NOONE has a fkn job in any NFL Office.

Eliot will be out of one if he has a repeat of last year.

 

[Ring 6]

Maybe he would have been decent player if he was WR number 3 or 4 and did not have to face top CBs. What if he still sucked? Well better to waste a 4 than a 2. It is astounding to me that almost everyone on this forum, and we are not close to being professional scouts, would have taken McConkey. He fell right into the Patriots lap, but the Patriots did not do the obvious thing. Instead they tried to get cute and trade down; surely they must have known that the Chargers would take McConkey; if not, they were idiots hoping that McConkey would still be there. If they did know and let it happen anyway, then they are idiots for bad scouting.

He would be the same player regardless of what round he was drafted in.
He stank at every slot in the depth chart as he fell down it.
He was a terrible pick, he would have been regardless of when he was picked but he was drafted right about where the consensus expected him to be

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

He would be the same player regardless of what round he was drafted in.
He stank at every slot in the depth chart as he fell down it.
He was a terrible pick, he would have been regardless of when he was picked but he was drafted right about where the consensus expected him to be

I agree and see your point. The problem I have is that the "consensus" is based on the various draft guides and blogs. Surely you would think that the Patriots could do better than say, "Lindy's Sports Pro Football Draft". Or maybe they do, and there was no one to stand up and say, "No Bob, I don't care what Lindy's says about Poke, we need to take McConkey." If they cannot do better than Lindy's, then you need to clean house in the draft department.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree and see your point. The problem I have is that the "consensus" is based on the various draft guides and blogs. Surely you would think that the Patriots could do better than say, "Lindy's Sports Pro Football Draft". Or maybe they do, and there was no one to stand up and say, "No Bob, I don't care what Lindy's says about Poke, we need to take McConkey." If they cannot do better than Lindy's, then you need to clean house in the draft department.

It’s not a matter of “doing better” it’s a refuting of your argument “they could have taken him in the 4th”.
You seem to have a poor understanding of how this stuff works.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I wouldn't say anything is SAFE with the draft.

There's always a chance of BUST even with highly rated prospects. You just have to go off your best research. This is why there is a combine, interview process, film study, and personal workouts. Teams are trying to get a feel for the guy to see if he can become a successful pro.

The truth is it's a crapshoot even with the best most intensive research process, you will still pick some flops. The only thing you can do is do your homework and pick the best evaluated talent possible with the best mental makeup and hope it works out. Even a 'boring' draft isn't necessarily safe. Those picks might be considered boring because they don't have the upside to turn into a good pro which should be the actual end goal.

This article gives interesting insight to draft position success based on snap count analysis: 2025 NFL Draft: What historical hit rates reveal about positional success

The big takeaway is that the premium positions are usually also the lower success rate by snap count analysis:



Note that Edge, CB, QB, and WR generally correlate to lower 'success' by snap count. And yet they are also the most in demand, highly paid, and sought after positions in the draft. Getting a "HIT" on one of these positions is a much better value relative to rarity then getting a HIT with positions that already generally succeed based on snap count indicators.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Just draft a LT With A HIGH PICK.
That's all I want .
Simmons is coming back from a PETTALLA, not the average ACL Injury.
JSYK.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I wouldn't say anything is SAFE with the draft.

There's always a chance of BUST even with highly rated prospects. You just have to go off your best research. This is why there is a combine, interview process, film study, and personal workouts. Teams are trying to get a feel for the guy to see if he can become a successful pro.

I see a big bust rate for ED. Is this Erectile Dysfunction? Who knew

 

[dliverey44]

I see a big bust rate for ED. Is this Erectile Dysfunction? Who knew

I thought it was quite the opposite. If you have erectile dysfunction, I thought it was hard to bust.

 

[Joey007]

Membou has hands like glue. A good thing in a WR, not so good as a RT or guard.

Yep. Let the Jets swing and miss on another large tackle with bad form.

 

[raduray]

What about aspiring rappers?

Who is Old Joka?

 

[dliverey44]

Who is Old Juka?

One thing he got right is he has always been a joka and now he gets to drop a beat like its a football.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Eliot should already will be out of one given what a terrible job he did if he has a repeat of last year.

My version

 

[notex]

Take Campbell or whatever LT they have ranked highest. If they have 2 or 3 ranked similar (Banks/Membou?) then trade down a few spots get some more capital.

Leaving this without comment....

 

[ScottishPatriots]

I wouldn't say anything is SAFE with the draft.

There's always a chance of BUST even with highly rated prospects. You just have to go off your best research. This is why there is a combine, interview process, film study, and personal workouts. Teams are trying to get a feel for the guy to see if he can become a successful pro.

The truth is it's a crapshoot even with the best most intensive research process, you will still pick some flops. The only thing you can do is do your homework and pick the best evaluated talent possible with the best mental makeup and hope it works out. Even a 'boring' draft isn't necessarily safe. Those picks might be considered boring because they don't have the upside to turn into a good pro which should be the actual end goal.

This article gives interesting insight to draft position success based on snap count analysis: 2025 NFL Draft: What historical hit rates reveal about positional success

The big takeaway is that the premium positions are usually also the lower success rate by snap count analysis:



Note that Edge, CB, QB, and WR generally correlate to lower 'success' by snap count. And yet they are also the most in demand, highly paid, and sought after positions in the draft. Getting a "HIT" on one of these positions is a much better value relative to rarity then getting a HIT with positions that already generally succeed based on snap count indicators.

I agree that nothing is safe but the reason they say Campbell is safe is cause he can bust at LT and most people agree he'd still be an elite Guard.

You're still picking a guard at 4 though which is less than ideal but i can see why they'd consider that safe over picking a guy who busts then can't play in the league, it's a nice fall back option while taking a shot on a big position of need.