Let's talk Trade DOWN options

[VJCPatriot]

Outside of the top 2 QBs - that we don't need - the two blue chip prospects in this draft are considered to be Abdul Carter DE and Travis Hunter CB/WR.

If those two get scooped up and we're looking at Shadeur Sanders, why not entertain a trade down?

I don't think Campbell is worth the #4 pick with his stubby arms nor is Membou who plays right tackle and not left.


So who would want Shadeur Sanders?

What about the Raiders who are now owned by old friend Tom Brady?

We could swap our #4 pick and our #69 pick, for their #6 and their #37 pick. They get their QB and we get an extra 2nd round pick.


Assuming the Raiders take Sanders, who will be taken at #5 before our pick?

Jacksonville is up. They could take Campbell at #5 to play Guard/Tackle or Mason Graham to play DT.


And then we're up. I don't think we lose too much of value. This would be an ideal trade down scenario for us.

I'd be more comfortable taking a player at #6 and obtaining an extra earlier pick.

At that point we can play the waiting game and see who drops to the early 2nd for our back to back picks at #37 and #38 to take BPA or package one of our 2nds and another pick to get back into the 1st and take whoever looks best.

Maybe the pick swap is optimistic and we can only pry an extra 3rd round pick from the Raiders. But still gaining an early 3rd is better than staying at #4 imo.

 

[Pape]

We could swap our #4 pick and our #69 pick, for their #6 and their #37 pick. They get their QB and we get an extra 2nd round pick.

that's not enough to let them take their QB... dont undervalue our position and give our **** away for free...

Add a second round pick next year as well and i would have to think about it

 

[stinkypete]

that's not enough to let them take their QB... dont undervalue our position and give our **** away for free...

Add a second round pick next year as well and i would have to think about it

Depends on a lot of things.

What is the actual value of the 4th overall pick THIS year? In 2018, a move from #6 to #3 cost three 2nds. In 2013, a move from #12 to #3 cost a 2nd. There is little rhyme or reason, aside from the demand for the player. So what is the demand for Sanders? Certainly not Maye level. McCarthy level maybe? Having to give up a 3rd to net a second seems a little light on the return to me, but expecting a 2nd in this draft might be an unreasonable ask.

The most important question is who is our guy? If it's overwhelmingly Campbell, take him at 4. If there are a cluster of offensive players who we all value equally, move down a few spots and take the value.

 

[Zuma]

With the lack of high-quality players at the top of round 1, a lot of teams will be trying to trade down IMO. It’s going to be very difficult to find a trade down partner.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I have no desire personally, it's not like R1 is full of studs.

 

[Tunescribe]

What is the actual value of the 4th overall pick THIS year?

That appears to be the growing problem. No. 4 is becoming sort of a no-man's land for New England if Carter and Hunter are gone: picking anyone but those two feels like a reach and what could be left that another team would trade up for? Sanders' stock has been slipping since the combine.

 

[VJCPatriot]

that's not enough to let them take their QB... dont undervalue our position and give our **** away for free...

Add a second round pick next year as well and i would have to think about it

Maybe we can get a little more. Depends on the negotiations and how badly they want Sanders. But it is only moving down two spots. We wouldn't risk losing much. IMO, Jacksonville would likely take Graham or Campbell. And that's not a huge loss to move down and get an extra pick, or two if we get a favorable offer.

 

[maust]

With the lack of high-quality players at the top of round 1, a lot of teams will be trying to trade down IMO. It’s going to be very difficult to find a trade down partner.

I think, as @VJCPatriot pointed out, it depends on how the first 3 picks shake out whether or not the 4th pick will be attractive enough to another team to move up. I agree with you that overall the top of this draft is unlikely to generate a lot of demand

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Then, who you going to pick? Membou? He's been a RT.
LET'S experiment AGAIN.
No Thanks.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I could be 100% wrong on Campbell, but he's a fkn stud IMO.
Membou is a RT, and Simmons incurred a SERIOUS KNEE Injury.
Maybe they trade down, if so, better grab a starter.

 

[Gator Mike]

I don't see the Raiders moving up after trading for Geno Smith.

If you want to trade down, your best hope might be that another team falls in love with Travis Hunter or someone else. So, what would it take for you to trade out of a spot where you could pick Hunter?

 

[hornetfb85]

Looking at that basic trade chart, which I know isn’t the end all be all:
Parentheses = trade value

Trade #4 (1800) to Oakland for #6 and #68 (1850)

Draft LT Will Campbell
Yes he has short arms. He is the most NFL ready LT in the draft. He’s going to do the job.

Trade #38 and #77 (725) to Minnesota for #24 (740)

Draft Matthew Golden or Luther Burden

 

[Ring 6]

Outside of the top 2 QBs - that we don't need - the two blue chip prospects in this draft are considered to be Abdul Carter DE and Travis Hunter CB/WR.

If those two get scooped up and we're looking at Shadeur Sanders, why not entertain a trade down?

I don't think Campbell is worth the #4 pick with his stubby arms nor is Membou who plays right tackle and not left.


So who would want Shadeur Sanders?

What about the Raiders who are now owned by old friend Tom Brady?

We could swap our #4 pick and our #69 pick, for their #6 and their #37 pick. They get their QB and we get an extra 2nd round pick.


Assuming the Raiders take Sanders, who will be taken at #5 before our pick?

Jacksonville is up. They could take Campbell at #5 to play Guard/Tackle or Mason Graham to play DT.


And then we're up. I don't think we lose too much of value. This would be an ideal trade down scenario for us.

I'd be more comfortable taking a player at #6 and obtaining an extra earlier pick.

At that point we can play the waiting game and see who drops to the early 2nd for our back to back picks at #37 and #38 to take BPA or package one of our 2nds and another pick to get back into the 1st and take whoever looks best.

Maybe the pick swap is optimistic and we can only pry an extra 3rd round pick from the Raiders. But still gaining an early 3rd is better than staying at #4 imo.

I don’t think it’s about being worth the #4 pick, I think it’s about whether the pkayer(s) we want will be available later. You pick the guy you want. If you think Campbell has stubby arms and won’t be good then don’t take him at 4, 10, 18, 30.
The idea is to trade down to where we get the guy who fills our need and him plus the extra picks we get equal more value TO US than the #4 pick.

LT is a priority.
I would want Simmons, Campbell, Banks in that order but would be fine with any of the 3. Mocks are saying Simmons could last the longest. Importantly there are not a lot of LT desperate teams

So let’s say we trade down to teens. We should get at least a 2nd this year and next, and maybe a 1st next year instead of a 2nd.

With an early 2nd, mid 2nd, early 3rd and mid 3rd we have the ammo to move back into round 1 and take a WR and still have 2 day 2 picks plus an extra 2026.


#4 and a 3rd for #6 and a2nd is terrible value. It should cost at least the 2nd probably a late pick too to move up to 4

 

[Ring 6]

I think, as @VJCPatriot pointed out, it depends on how the first 3 picks shake out whether or not the 4th pick will be attractive enough to another team to move up. I agree with you that overall the top of this draft is unlikely to generate a lot of demand

32 teams don’t agree on who the 4th best player is or how can’t miss the one they like is.
Someone out there will be drooling over a player not named ward, hunter or Carter. It almost always is the case.

 

[imahobgoblin]

I could be 100% wrong on Campbell, but he's a fkn stud IMO.
Membou is a RT, and Simmons incurred a SERIOUS KNEE Injury.
Maybe they trade down, if so, better grab a starter.

I feel that Campbell is the pick. He may struggle with a few long arm pass rushers, but he will never be as bad as Lowe. He might even be very good. If not, you use a 3rd round pick on another LT and move Campbell to guard by mid season. He then becomes Joe Thuney. That is still a win.

Simmons is allegedly ahead of schedule and will work out my mid April. That will be interesting.

 

[Love The Drake]

Looking at that basic trade chart, which I know isn’t the end all be all:
Parentheses = trade value

Trade #4 (1800) to Oakland for #6 and #68 (1850)

Draft LT Will Campbell
Yes he has short arms. He is the most NFL ready LT in the draft. He’s going to do the job.

Trade #38 and #77 (725) to Minnesota for #24 (740)

Draft Matthew Golden or Luther Burden

Give me Emeba

 

[Brick27]

Not certain on the 1st pick, but the more I think about someone like Egbuka, the more like the downside protection he offers as an investment. Seems like he’ll be a 700-800 yard guy for the better part of 8 years or so, and of course has the potential to hit a higher level—especially with who we feel could be a good QB in Maye.

In scenarios they trade down and use added ammo to trade up with their 2nd pick/the guy they target is snatched away.. would be content with someone like him. Especially if they go OL or a perceived boom or bust guy with their initial pick. Just one scenario of the countless, but *shrug*

 

[Ring 6]

Not certain on the 1st pick, but the more I think about someone like Egbuka, the more like the downside protection he offers as an investment. Seems like he’ll be a 700-800 yard guy for the better part of 8 years or so, and of course has the potential to hit a higher level—especially with who we feel could be a good QB in Maye.

In scenarios they trade down and use added ammo to trade up with their 2nd pick/the guy they target is snatched away.. would be content with someone like him. Especially if they go OL or a perceived boom or bust guy with their initial pick. Just one scenario of the countless, but *shrug*

You create a great question. If Egbuka is what you suggest, and I’ll give an example and say Tyler Boyd. Is that worth a 1st that you trade a 2 and a 3 to move up to the 20s for, in your opinion?

 

[hornetfb85]

Egbuka will likely be a solid pro and have a good career. Golden has a chance to be a legit difference maker.

 

[Ring 6]

Egbuka will likely be a solid pro and have a good career. Golden has a chance to be a legit difference maker.

Or a bust