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Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE)

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This is an interesting stat. There really never has been a good stat to account for the reality that the deeper the throw the lower the completion rate, and all receivers don’t get the same throws on the same routes.
This post shows D Adams numbers.
 
This is an interesting stat. There really never has been a good stat to account for the reality that the deeper the throw the lower the completion rate, and all receivers don’t get the same throws on the same routes.
This post shows D Adams numbers.

For those who can't/don't want to click on the link, here's the rest of it:

Adams's CROE is a straight line down over the last 5 years.

Adams Catch Rate Over Expected
Last 5 Seasons (NFL Next Gen Stats)
2020 +9.7% 4th best (min. 100 targets)
2021 +5.6%
2022 -2.2%
2023 -2.4%
2024 -4.2% 4th worst (min. 100 targets)
 
Not a great trend there!

That being said, I think the "appeal" of Adams is in the context of a stop gap option for the X receiver spot. There really aren't many options there in free agency. Even amongst the second and third tier options, it's pretty much all Zs and slot receiver types. Unless they love Tet, even the draft doesn't seem to have any day 1 options there that you can pencil in. So a stop gap is likely needed.

Rate stats like this also need the context of volume. If Adams is consistently getting open through his awesome route running, then catching those open targets isn't going to play well in a stat like this but they're undoubtedly a sign of good WR play. So you've got to taken into account all of it. There's also an intangible factor of him teaching younger guys how to run routes. And again, there's scarcity at the position so the quality or lack thereof in the alternatives matters too.

End of the day, I think he'd be a very good stop gap signing on a 2 year deal (or a contract structured such that it is effectively a 2 year deal) just so we have a capable X receiver an adult in the locker room in place for a couple of seasons while we scour the draft and trade market for more permanent solution there.
 
I'm not interested in this years Adams maybe Three years ago.
 
Not a great trend there!

That being said, I think the "appeal" of Adams is in the context of a stop gap option for the X receiver spot. There really aren't many options there in free agency. Even amongst the second and third tier options, it's pretty much all Zs and slot receiver types. Unless they love Tet, even the draft doesn't seem to have any day 1 options there that you can pencil in. So a stop gap is likely needed.

Rate stats like this also need the context of volume. If Adams is consistently getting open through his awesome route running, then catching those open targets isn't going to play well in a stat like this but they're undoubtedly a sign of good WR play. So you've got to taken into account all of it. There's also an intangible factor of him teaching younger guys how to run routes. And again, there's scarcity at the position so the quality or lack thereof in the alternatives matters too.

End of the day, I think he'd be a very good stop gap signing on a 2 year deal (or a contract structured such that it is effectively a 2 year deal) just so we have a capable X receiver an adult in the locker room in place for a couple of seasons while we scour the draft and trade market for more permanent solution there.
This stat is completions over expected. Meaning what is his catch rate COMPARED TO the average based upon the length of throw. So it takes all of that into account.
 
Well, what is the CROE for the guys we got on the team?
 
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