Patriots Pregame Thread Week 18: Bills vs Pats @1PM, CBS

[captain stone]

The rankest of dumpster-diving.

#FireTheChildrenUpstairsNOW

 

[PaulThePat]

It's a really weird situation for Mayo against the Bills. Bottom line, this Pats team needs to be a heck of a lot better next season or Mayo is out. Not only would he be out but he'd probably be permanently damaged goods and may never get another HC gig. As such losing to the Bills would help Mayo get a better roster and thus improve his chances of remaining an HC. Winning against the Bills, which seems to be what he wants (in public at least), will undoubtedly reduce our chances to improve, and in turn lessen his chance of being an HC beyond next season.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

What the **** is a CPOE?

Completion Percentage Over Expectation. Some person records every aspect of every pass, like time to throw, distance thrown, sideline versus the middle of the field, contested catch versus broken coverage, etc. (I don't know the whole list), and then some algorithm calculates what the QB's completion percentage should have been. Maye is +7.5% meaning Maye completes 7.5% more passes than the algorithm predicted.

By itself CPOE is useless, but if every QB's pass attempts are evaluated and recorded to the same criteria (I am not sure if that is realistic), CPOE is helpful in comparing QB performance.

Bottom line, Maye is scrappy and makes a lot of difficult passes other QBs would not make. You can see that by watching the games. What is difficult to see watching the games is how much more or less scrappy Maye is compared to other QBs. Maye's CPOE is greater than the other QBs, therefore Maye has the highest CPOE, meaning he is the most scrappy QB in the NFL.

I use the word scrappy because CPOE does not mean most accurate, or highest completion %, but means the QB completes the most passes in difficult situations. How they judge the level of difficulty from one situation to the next is subjective, but as the number of passes recorded increases, the judgement mistakes statistically cancel out decreasing the error in the evaluation process.

There are a few posters that do stats for a living that might explain it better than me.

 

[Clonamery]

It's a really weird situation for Mayo against the Bills. Bottom line, this Pats team needs to be a heck of a lot better next season or Mayo is out. Not only would he be out but he'd probably be permanently damaged goods and may never get another HC gig. As such losing to the Bills would help Mayo get a better roster and thus improve his chances of remaining an HC. Winning against the Bills, which seems to be what he wants (in public at least), will undoubtedly reduce our chances to improve, and in turn lessen his chance of being an HC beyond next season.

Nonsense. A win will save the season of diss-parody.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

It's a really weird situation for Mayo against the Bills. Bottom line, this Pats team needs to be a heck of a lot better next season or Mayo is out. Not only would he be out but he'd probably be permanently damaged goods and may never get another HC gig. As such losing to the Bills would help Mayo get a better roster and thus improve his chances of remaining an HC. Winning against the Bills, which seems to be what he wants (in public at least), will undoubtedly reduce our chances to improve, and in turn lessen his chance of being an HC beyond next season.

I understand your point, but that is a long term view. For example, if the GM trades for extra picks in the 2026 draft (which should be the goal since the 2026 draft is much stronger than the 2025 draft), Mayo might be gone before the better roster happens in 2026.

I expect Mayo is a short term view guy and is saying what he thinks, but he knows losing the game helps the team long term.

 

[KCSVEN]

I understand your point, but that is a long term view. For example, if the GM trades for extra picks in the 2026 draft (which should be the goal since the 2026 draft is much stronger than the 2025 draft), Mayo might be gone before the better roster happens in 2026.

I expect Mayo is a short term view guy and is saying what he thinks, but he knows losing the game helps the team long term.

You really do have a point

You lose, get to #1, Wolf trades down to Raiders at 8 for a future first and some seconds, now you're getting a pick that's not elite but just as likely a bust as a good player.

You win, no worse Thean 4th, good chance at 3. At 3 you get a potential All-Pro in Hunter, at 4 you get a 50% chance at a pro bowl player. What helps Mayo more in 2025? 2nd round picks hit at a 33% rate so likely bust more than good there.

I doubt Mayo analyzed it like this however. Let's see howe much Maye actually plays. I expect no more than a half.
No coach comes out and says we are not trying to win and only playoff teams come out and say they are resting players.

The chance of getting fired by playing your starters against backups and losing or Maye getting hurt are way higher than playing backups and losing.

 

[Ross12]

I like your Patriots fanfiction better than the real thing.

It distracts from the pain

 

[denverpatsfan]

This Pats Oline is so bad. I'm not sure if it makes a difference who plays for the Bills.

These receivers are so bad. Do they actually catch the ball even when they are trying?

 

[Triumph]

How's this for an algorithm.

Game 1 - Win! Remember the Gatorade bath? Whoopee. Mayo beat one of the best teams in the NFL with legitimate SuperBowl aspirations.
Games 2 - 7 = 6 straight losses.
Game 8 - Win. Vs the pitiful Jets. Jocoby still has it.
Game 9 - Loss vs the pitiful Titans.
Game 10 - Win vs the pitiful Bears.
Games 11 - 16 = 6 straight losses.
Game 17 - A win follows 6 straight losses.

Its too late to avert history in the making. Thunder wont go along with tanking because he is forking out millions.

 

[PaulThePat]

You win, get to #1, Wolf trades down to Raiders at 8 for a future first and some seconds, now you're getting a pick that's not elite but just as likely a bust as a good player.

You lose, no worse Thean 4th, good chance at 3. At 3 you get a potential All-Pro in Hunter, at 4 you get a 50% chance at a pro bowl player. What helps Mayo more in 2025? 2nd round picks hit at a 33% rate so likely bust more than good there.

I'm confused. Do you have win/lose the wrong way round??

 

[Triumph]

Furthermore on why this will be a WIN baby!

Krafts dont want another ugly scene in their house. Especially since this game is not confined to NE viewing.

 

[KCSVEN]

I'm confused. Do you have win/lose the wrong way round??

Yup I will edit

 

[p8ryts]

Furthermore on why this will be a WIN baby!

Krafts dont want another ugly scene in their house. Especially since this game is not confined to NE viewing.

Well, if he is smart, he will not worry about his reputation for one game, one season and make sure we are in the best position for improvement next year. It's the part about being smart that's hard for him.

 

[Thunderhead]

Go Bills. Blast this clown team and force Kraft's hand in firing the entire FO and coaching staff. Actually hope they lose 100-0.

 

[Ross12]

Furthermore on why this will be a WIN baby!

Krafts dont want another ugly scene in their house. Especially since this game is not confined to NE viewing.

This game is being shown across a lot of land-mass, but not a lot of eyeballs. Most of the most populous areas are seeing other games. Still, this is more viewership than usual.

 

[Grogan14]

The rankest of dumpster-diving.

#FireTheChildrenUpstairsNOW

Reduced for quick sale
Everything must go
Clearance

 

[turkeyneck]

This game is being shown across a lot of land-mass, but not a lot of eyeballs. Most of the most populous areas are seeing other games. Still, this is more viewership than usual.

It's just NE, upstate NY, and those areas that have a playoff interest in what BUF does.

 

[Ring 6]

Lol. I bought one of those to try to manage one of our dog’s severe car anxiety without pharmaceuticals. It did nothing. 0.25 mg of Xanax works like a charm, though!

I may end up needing to use some of that Xanax myself, when Thunder announces on Monday morning that Mayo will return a head coach for 2025.

I got one specifically for thunderstorms. The instructions say put in where they sleep so they can get used to it. My dog chewed a hole in it.

 

[Triumph]

This game is being shown across a lot of land-mass, but not a lot of eyeballs. Most of the most populous areas are seeing other games. Still, this is more viewership than usual.

Las Vegas, Denver, Kansas City, St Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland.

A conservative cursory estimate of 10 million who could watch the B & J Kraft circus for laughs.

 

[Ring 6]

He's a grade A moron. Teams across the NFL are sitting their starters in week 18 if they have nothing to play for at all. No reason to risk injury for the next season.

Mayo - Play everyone. What an *******.

He's not just inept, he is an *******.

I agree Mayo is a moron but teams that are eliminated are not sitting their healthy starters, and especially not their young ones.
not risking injury to a player who doesn’t have a game for 9 months isn’t a thing.