If you look at the 49ers/Dolphins trade, the Dolphins traded away Trey Lance and got Tyreek Hill, Jaden Waddle, and Bradley Chubb. Sure Chubb hasn't been as good as he was in Denver and is on IR this year, but Hill and Waddle have been great additions. Sure two were via trade, but there would be no stopping the Pats for using draft capital from trading down to trade for established players also.
The Bears got Caleb Williams, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, Tory Taylor, and Carolina's second round pick in 2025 from draft picks for trading Carolina the #1 pick. If Williams can get consistency, the Bears made the absolute right move. He still has the potential to be either a franchise or even an elite QB (although the latter is less likely than when he was drafted). Wright is a solid LT. Stevenson is a good starting #2 CB. Taylor is a good punter. I didn't even include DJ Moore to the discussion.
I would argue those are two examples of teams trading down and addressing multiple positions on their roster with solid to elite starters.
I'm not against the idea of a trade down, I just have no confidence ANY GM would then use the return properly. So maybe they should just take the sure thing instead.
Chiefs got Trent McDuffie and some other guys, and the consensus is the Hill trade goes down as a rare win-win for both teams.
The Bears lucked into the #1 overall pick in a deep draft the next year and still may not be better off down the line.
Not as clear cut the Bears are going to win that trade IMO. Jury is still out.
Bears could have Will Anderson or Devon Witherspoon to pair with JJ McCarthy and basically give up Odunze and a mediocre LT plus DJ Moore. The other 2 guys are probably off the team by second contract and 2nd round pick in 2025 is like a normal 3rd or 4th. Low chance of success.
They passed on 1 perennial pro bowl player and so far, have not gotten a pro bowl player out of the deal.
I admit I'm somewhat playing devil's advocate as I would have made that deal, but I would have drafted better than the Bears. Odunze had trouble separating in college, and I hate WR's that can't separate, AND Brock Bowers was right there!
They took Williams over Drake Maye! They just get Maye and Bowers, BOOM, great trade and great result, but they didn't.
Titans could have taken Joey Bosa instead of trading down, or Witherspoon could be on the Bears, not bad consolation prizes.
IMO GM's just don't understand the draft. History shows drafting high and taking a non-QB is closest thing to a guaranteed Pro Bowl player in the draft as you can get. After that there is a 50% chance of bust in first round, 67% chance of bust in second. Odds wise you get 2 first and 2 seconds back and most likely outcome is you passed on 1 great player for 2 good players.
I think teams underestimate the pro bowl player vs 2-3 good players.
My main point is trading down is not some franchise altering reset in most cases. It's questionable that any of the teams that did these big tops of the draft trade downs ended up better off 4-5 years later for having done the deal.
NFL GM's have not proven they can turn the return they get into clear wins.