If patriots lose out, Travis Hunter could be theirs

[Huckleberry1]

You're a fkn clown everyday, I don't need to even peg you, I I already know.
GFY LOSER.

That’s not very nice.

 

[KCSVEN]

would you gamble trading down to 3rd and betting on TH is still there…?

That's my plan and hope. Depends on what team is at 2 of course.

People Overestimate the idea you get so much back for a trade down from 1. Draft picks are way less valuable analytically and historically than people think. Top 5 or so picks in a draft are very high value.
The only real value you get back in trade is an existing player(maybe) and the next year's first which you only know the value of after the next season.

I'd rather be sure to get a very likely pro bowl player at 3 and take less than drop to 4 or lower and miss out. No way I go lower than 5 or now you get into less than 50% shot at a pro bowler.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

That’s not very nice.

Sometimes I am not very nice Ivan.
I hear SO MANY RIDICULOUS THINGS every day, that once in awhile I snap.

Sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

That's my plan and hope. Depends on what team is at 2 of course.

People Overestimate the idea you get so much back for a trade down from 1. Draft picks are way less valuable analytically and historically than people think. Top 5 or so picks in a draft are very high value.
The only real value you get back in trade is an existing player(maybe) and the next year's first which you only know the value of after the next season.

I'd rather be sure to get a very likely pro bowl player at 3 and take less than drop to 4 or lower and miss out. No way I go lower than 5 or now you get into less than 50% shot at a pro bowler.

with the way the pats have been drafting, they need a lay up/sure pick - top 5 like you said

 

[PWRxWLF]

But here's the question. I haven't seen any of the draft analysts' state that Hunter is THE top WR prospect in this draft, or THE best CB in the draft. What makes him the best player in college football is that he plays both very well. I don't disagree. But this might be the #2 pick in the draft, P, do you really want to take a guy who IS that guy because he plays 2 positions well, but is the master of neither. And that doesn't count the issue of the likelihood he will only play a token number of plays on the "other side". Given the rigors of what it takes to play just ONE side of the ball, I just can't get past the fact that if he plays a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball in the NFL, he will likely leave his best football on the field BEFORE his rookie contract is done

Now if we end up at #2 and take ANY player, I might be disappointed. At the #1 or #2 slot you are looking to get a franchise changing player, and I just don't see anyone being that this year except a QB, just because that really IS the most impactful position in the game. IF we trade down and stay at #6 like in the Giants trade there would be a number of players that I would be happy to get.

Plenty of draft analysts state that Hunter is the best CB prospect in the draft. PFF being the biggest and most well known. Nfl draft buzz, yahoo etc. are some others. A few rank Johson from Michigan higher. What they all agree on though is that Hunter is the best football player. He’s going to be interesting to watch over the next few years. No way he lives up to the hype.

 

[silentone]

That's my plan and hope. Depends on what team is at 2 of course.

People Overestimate the idea you get so much back for a trade down from 1. Draft picks are way less valuable analytically and historically than people think. Top 5 or so picks in a draft are very high value.
The only real value you get back in trade is an existing player(maybe) and the next year's first which you only know the value of after the next season.

I'd rather be sure to get a very likely pro bowl player at 3 and take less than drop to 4 or lower and miss out. No way I go lower than 5 or now you get into less than 50% shot at a pro bowler.

Hi KCSVEN - always enjoy your posts. I also would gamble trading down to three and think you may be able to create more value by trading down to pick #2, then trading to pick #3. If that goes to plan, then the question for me is what can I get in return for #3 (Hunter) and how does that compare to Hunters value (with many saying he is best player in the draft). I feel over the years, the draft pick value models have improved meaningfully and I'm happy to trade almost any pick if I feel I'm getting meaningful additional value with such a week roster but also in general. In the case of Hunter (at #3), I view him as more like the #1 pick or close to it and would want to be over compensated for it while valuing at worth something around the #1 pick). We may disagree, but I have no problem trading past five again as long as I'm getting over compensated, especially with so many holes in the Pats roster. I trust the models value of picks much more than I trust the GM's trying to pick future probowlers. I hate drafting for need, but if the top couple of left tackles are truely left tackles, one could make the case for working your way down the board but positioning for one of the top two or three tackles (Campbell, Banks, Simmons - these seem to be top three currently). I recognize the obvious need for tackles and they need to have a plan to acquire one or two whether thru draft, free agency, or trade.

 

[silentone]

Plenty of draft analysts state that Hunter is the best CB prospect in the draft. PFF being the biggest and most well known. Nfl draft buzz, yahoo etc. are some others. A few rank Johson from Michigan higher. What they all agree on though is that Hunter is the best football player. He’s going to be interesting to watch over the next few years. No way he lives up to the

 

[silentone]

I think that's right. No idea if he lives up to the hype but I'd gladly trade him/that pick if somone is willing to overpay based on the hype.

 

[KCSVEN]

I think that's right. No idea if he lives up to the hype but I'd gladly trade him/that pick if somone is willing to overpay based on the hype.

Historically the #1 non-QB drafted lives up to the hype 80% of the time. Also, nobody pays much for non-QB's.

I might be the only person here not too upset if the Pats win, and one of the Giants or Titans win against their resting team and we get the #3 pick and have no trade options and must take Hunter.

I almost feel like the Drake Maye pick; Wolf had no choice, so he got it right. I have little faith he'll make the right trade and ends up with the right draft pick/position in 2025. Almost feel safer if he has to take Hunter. Though I'd feel that with almost every GM out there.

Of course, winning and going to 4 would not be good. I also assume Titans, Browns, Giants are going QB. Browns and Giants are 100%, Titans might want to pair Levis with Hunter but doubt they don't go QB.

 

[hornetfb85]

I’m fairly drunk already, so Merry New Year

Anyways, Tyler Warren dropped an easy one, but would still look pretty damn good in a Pats uni

 

[Betterthanmost]

Need to focus on the trenches first.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Need to focus on the trenches first.

In the draft it is best to pick BPA. It increases your hit rate and high end picks.

In FA it is great to focus on positions of need like the trenches. Sign one or two OTs, a DT, and a DE. With $140M let's get a LB too. In FA it is not always smart to sign the best guy available when you can sign two above average guys for the same money.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I personally don't care where they get the help, just need to get it. We have a ****bag of $, and high draft picks in every round.... problem is, we had the same last year, and so far results are weak as fk.

 

[Betterthanmost]

In the draft it is best to pick BPA. It increases your hit rate and high end picks.

In FA it is great to focus on positions of need like the trenches. Sign one or two OTs, a DT, and a DE. With $140M let's get a LB too. In FA it is not always smart to sign the best guy available when you can sign two above average guys for the same money.

Outside of hitting on a generational QB for the Chiefs, BB’s approach to the draft was the best. Yea his recent picks were not good, but it needed time.
What has the teams who have taken the BPA ever won? It is nice seeing highlights of nice plays, see teams win some games etc, but if you don’t build from the trenches but rather focus on picking the Julio Jones, the Jeffesons when you can’t protect the QB, can stop the run, then you will get the wow plays and be like everyone else.

 

[NE_Zealot]

I’m starting to lean towards McMillan more and more if we grab WR high in the first (not necessarily first overall, rather trade down a few spots). Too much negative press around Hunter and his GF, could be a headcase and a massive bust.

 

[Dec54]

I’m starting to lean towards McMillan more and more if we grab WR high in the first (not necessarily first overall, rather trade down a few spots). Too much negative press around Hunter and his GF, could be a headcase and a massive bust.

Oh do tell

 

[NE_Zealot]

Oh do tell

Well for starters (if you believe the stories) he would drive his GF to a party, then stay outside in the car while she “partied” with other men.

 

[Dec54]

Well for starters (if you believe the stories) he would drive his GF to a party, then stay outside in the car while she “partied” with other men.

naughty

 

[Dec54]

naughty

How nice this page has been to read without certain members taking part and dragging the conversation down to insults and arguments.

 

[silentone]

Historically the #1 non-QB drafted lives up to the hype 80% of the time. Also, nobody pays much for non-QB's.

I might be the only person here not too upset if the Pats win, and one of the Giants or Titans win against their resting team and we get the #3 pick and have no trade options and must take Hunter.

I almost feel like the Drake Maye pick; Wolf had no choice, so he got it right. I have little faith he'll make the right trade and ends up with the right draft pick/position in 2025. Almost feel safer if he has to take Hunter. Though I'd feel that with almost every GM out there.

Of course, winning and going to 4 would not be good. I also assume Titans, Browns, Giants are going QB. Browns and Giants are 100%, Titans might want to pair Levis with Hunter but doubt they don't go QB.

I found this draft pick analysis paper that I found interesting. They looked at the surplus value of picks excluding the QB's. The curve is actually inverted at the top of the first round with the most valuable pick being pick number 12. This is because the top picks take up too much of the salary cap. Basically they are saying the "Loser's Curse" that Massey & Thaler wrote about still exists. The article also references a lot of studies with links. Welcome peoples critiques as this suggests trading out of high first round picks when not drafting a QB.

Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart

Constructing surplus value from scratch.

opensourcefootball.com