All this talk on trade down and reset the franchise lets revisit the Bears trade:
Looking at what the Bears got for Bryce Young:
-OT Darnell Wright-78 grade this year PFF, Bears fans consider him an above average Tackle that they expect was better based on a top 10 pick, consensus is he should have been drafted around #32.
-CB Tyrique Stevenson-58 grade PFF average over 2 seasons-bad advanced analytics, Bears fans say he sucks
-WR DJ Moore-Good WR, not great, excellent #2 on a good team
-QB Caleb Williams-Might be a 15th best QB as an upside but also might bust and been underwhelming, takes too many sacks, small size etc.
-2nd round pick 2025 in a weak draft
They could have taken Will Anderson (Defensive ROY-11 sacks this year) or Devon Witherspoon (shut down corner). Then drafted JJ McCarthy (Or Penix but why?) in 2025
I'm not sure Bears would be much worse off not having made that trade.
They know they got out of it a good #2 receiver and, at best, slightly above average Tackle out of the deal.
They could have had a shutdown corner or a top pass rusher and JJ McCarthy.
Yes, the Bears could have taken Nabers #1 and then taken McCarthy this year, but the point is a trade down is no magical reset of a franchise. The best NON-QB players are at the top of the draft. Trading down is a huge risk of losing an elite talent.
Just a cautionary tale.
From 2014-2023
-80% of the first non-Qb's taken played in a pro bowl
-65% of the top 4 non-QB's played in a Pro Bowl
-On average After the 6th picked non-QB drafted the # of players in the pro bowl % wise really dropped off. 3 of the years it was after the top 4.
Best talent is top of the draft, there are maybe 4-6 non QB's that will have at least 1 really good season. Trading out of those spots for picks outside that range has not historically been better than just drafting the great player.