The Case Against Eliot Wolf

[Huckleberry1]

Seeing as how Wolfe picked Polk & Baker I figured you would have realized I mistakenly “fat fingered” the draft date year and I’m pretty sure you knew that. But I digress…

Here an excerpt from an NFL writers post regarding the *2024* draft:

“The Chargers had a hole in their wide receiver room after the offseason trade of Keenan Allen to Chicago and the release of Mike Williams.
McConkey brings versatility as an inside-outside wideout. His flexibility, coupled with excellent route-running ability and 4.39 40-yard-dash speed, makes him a menace for defensive backs. The 6-foot wideout might not have ideal size, but his quick release, smooth route running, ability to separate and stellar hands allow him to win all over the field.”

Whether McConkey is called an “X”, “Z”, or “slot” my guess is there isn't *anybody* who reports to work at Gillette Stadium including coaches, players (especially a rookie QB), and ownership, who doesn’t regret the trade that was made no matter who made it!

No, I thought you were part of the chorus claiming Wolf tied Belichick up in the basement at Patriots Place and made his bad picks for him. McConkey’s a good player, and in retrospect it’s hard to argue against him, but in retrospect everyone is the greatest GM ever. I don’t know if Polk and Baker will pan out, but if they don’t then Wolf will own those busts. However Kayshon Boutte would be gone had they listened to the chorus here last year, and he ended up being a bright spot. This is an impossible season to evaluate because the Brissett era was an unmitigated disaster. I’ll make my call on this draft down the road, and I think we will have a much better ability to evaluate Wolf a year from now, although most evaluations will be done in August, at least the ones not done already.

 

[Since1960]

Since there is a LOT at stake this coming off-season, and he’s gonna be under a ton of pressure, I’m hoping he does turn it around and makes the right choices both in FA and the draft. I’ve followed all seasons and even with the 20 year run, we’ve still probably had a few more downers than successful seasons. I just don’t care to return to bad old days after being so spoiled! Look forward to a review next year!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

And Ladd McConkey is a slot receiver, and the Patriots already had 3 of those. So if not drafting a 3rd slot receiver is the litmus test to be a GM then no one can ever be the GM.

This McConkey is a "slot receiver" schtick is so old. We already have "3 of those"? LOL. If we had McConkey, we could release our "3 of those" and be MUCH MUCH better off.

Sorry, I am sure you prefer to have Polk and Baker instead of McConkey because we already have "3 of those". Dude, you have any idea how silly you look.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

No, I thought you were part of the chorus claiming Wolf tied Belichick up in the basement at Patriots Place and made his bad picks for him. McConkey’s a good player, and in retrospect it’s hard to argue against him, but in retrospect everyone is the greatest GM ever. I don’t know if Polk and Baker will pan out, but if they don’t then Wolf will own those busts. However Kayshon Boutte would be gone had they listened to the chorus here last year, and he ended up being a bright spot. This is an impossible season to evaluate because the Brissett era was an unmitigated disaster. I’ll make my call on this draft down the road, and I think we will have a much better ability to evaluate Wolf a year from now, although most evaluations will be done in August, at least the ones not done already.

Yeah, we know. You have already said you can't make an evaluation on Wolf for 3 to 4 years. LOL. The 2023 draft was a good one, and Wolf's 2024 FA and draft, except for Maye, are a disaster. But you can not admit that for 2 to 3 more years. We go it.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Since there is a LOT at stake this coming off-season, and he’s gonna be under a ton of pressure, I’m hoping he does turn it around and makes the right choices both in FA and the draft. I’ve followed all seasons and even with the 20 year run, we’ve still probably had a few more downers than successful seasons. I just don’t care to return to bad old days after being so spoiled! Look forward to a review next year!

I’m completely willing to judge Wolf on the decisions he makes, what I’m not willing to do is hold him responsible for his bosses decisions, or judge him on the inability to turn a 3-14 team around in 8 months on the job, which is what many here have done. Even though he’s saddled with Kraft’s coaching staff he’s responsible for roster construction, and after the coming offseason they will have to show significant progress or he will be a goner. He has the $$& cap space and the draft picks to fix their most pressing problems, and he has to get that done. I won’t like it if he blows 30 million a year on a guy like Tee Higgins, who is a 20 million a year player, but the pressure is going to be on him to do just that. I’m really looking forward to the coming offseason, and I think it will make or break Wolf’s future here.

 

[PScottman]

I’ll make my call on this draft down the road, and I think we will have a much better ability to evaluate Wolf a year from now, although most evaluations will be done in August, at least the ones not done already.

A good business model would have actual conditions for employees to meet along a continuum of time if a solid, dependable evaluation system was in place, For the GM especially it would have to encompass both short term (this year) and long term (last couple years) metrics taking into account changes in his role. Same for players.

The issue remains the complexity of the system. While I agree that multiple years is best for evaluation, can the franchise afford the wait given the criticality of the contract and cap balancing particularly for the QB position that cascades across the entire franchise?

I'm as "continuity is king" as anyone here, but what indicators have been shown at all demonstrating that the current staff - from GM to HC to position coaches to masseuses and personal trainers are making continued quality decisions or at a minimum learning from previous poor ones and correcting them?

That's the metric in the current year I would say is the most critical and frankly have not seen. In many cases I've seen the opposite - compounding bad decisions and establishing poor habits. The only exception being the fundamentals growth from Maye which could be both or either himself or Van Pelt. What would be the second best? Maybe Ben Brown coming in? It hasn't been any of the other draft picks or free agents. Maybe Slye as a free agent who's been "middle of the road"?

I struggle to pinpoint much for indicators demonstrating an upward trend line that would be necessary to decide.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I just don't understand how Wolf gets the job picking players in 2024 if he wasn't involved in the process in 2023 and before. I don't think he had Bill tied up in the basement and I think Bill was the decider on all the picks, and he "owns" them. But I assume Kraft saw the scouting reports, heard what Wolf was suggesting during the 2023 and previous drafts, and trusted his opinion enough to put him in charge of personnel in 2024. I just wish we would see some of that because otherwise all we have to believe is that Wolf was part of the team that put together the draft boards that helped lead to the players being evaluated the way they were. And it makes you wonder if he's truly capable of picking the right players.

 

[Clonamery]

I just don't understand how Wolf gets the job picking players in 2024 if he wasn't involved in the process in 2023 and before. I don't think he had Bill tied up in the basement and I think Bill was the decider on all the picks, and he "owns" them. But I assume Kraft saw the scouting reports, heard what Wolf was suggesting during the 2023 and previous drafts, and trusted his opinion enough to put him in charge of personnel in 2024. I just wish we would see some of that because otherwise all we have to believe is that Wolf was part of the team that put together the draft boards that helped lead to the players being evaluated the way they were. And it makes you wonder if he's truly capable of picking the right players.

Here's a conundrum....the Packer Way...the list and the results thus far.

Stepping Stone 1: Identify What Needs to be Fixed - the list is longer than what doesn't need to be fixed.

Stepping Stone 2: Hire the Best--Before Anyone Else Does - Not the best that's for sure.

Stepping Stone 3: Develop an Obsession with Winning Today - Nope.

Stepping Stone 4: Play to Your Strengths - We have great fans when we're winning, knowledgeable, thirsty and hungry.

Stepping Stone 5: Use the Four C's to Measure Performance - I'm not reading the book but I assume the 4 C's are C*nts, C*cks, C*cks*ckers, Courage.

Stepping Stone 6: Making It Work - like Play-Doh, I assume.

Stepping Stone 7: Keeping It Going - We'll see maybe, maybe not, most likely.

Stepping Stone 8: Handling the Unexpected - death by small and large cuts.

Stepping Stone 9: Staying on Top - death by small....yeah.

 

[Fubby]

Is there a case for Wolf

 

[Huckleberry1]

I just don't understand how Wolf gets the job picking players in 2024 if he wasn't involved in the process in 2023 and before. I don't think he had Bill tied up in the basement and I think Bill was the decider on all the picks, and he "owns" them. But I assume Kraft saw the scouting reports, heard what Wolf was suggesting during the 2023 and previous drafts, and trusted his opinion enough to put him in charge of personnel in 2024. I just wish we would see some of that because otherwise all we have to believe is that Wolf was part of the team that put together the draft boards that helped lead to the players being evaluated the way they were. And it makes you wonder if he's truly capable of picking the right players.

I have never suggested Wolf didn’t have input, nor Groh or the scouts, but Belichick had final say, and we don’t know who said what in the meetings. The only thing said out loud was that Wolf set up the trade up to pick Barmore, but even that had to get Belichick’s final approval. And we only know that because Belichick said it after the draft. And if, as you suggest, Kraft heard Wolf’s input in meetings, and thought he was giving good advice, that he was recommending the hits, and advising against the misses, but no one can know that for sure because they haven’t put out records of the meetings. Either way i expect him to be around for this offseason, so we will have a much better measure of him this time next year. If he blows this offseason then I would expect a repeat of this season, and his job will be in peril.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I have never suggested Wolf didn’t have input, nor Groh or the scouts, but Belichick had final say, and we don’t know who said what in the meetings. The only thing said out loud was that Wolf set up the trade up to pick Barmore, but even that had to get Belichick’s final approval. And we only know that because Belichick said it after the draft. And if, as you suggest, Kraft heard Wolf’s input in meetings, and thought he was giving good advice, that he was recommending the hits, and advising against the misses, but no one can know that for sure because they haven’t put out records of the meetings. Either way i expect him to be around for this offseason, so we will have a much better measure of him this time next year. If he blows this offseason then I would expect a repeat of this season, and his job will be in peril.

Agreed. We have to assume Kraft liked him for some reason. And I assume he’s getting at least another year.

I just think there’s not enough evidence to support both sides of the argument. “We don’t know Wolf’s input, so he shouldn’t be held liable for advising Bill’s picks.” Or “We know Wolf gave input, so he is somewhat liable for advising Bill’s pics.” He’s like the Scroedinger’s cat of GMs.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I’m completely willing to judge Wolf on the decisions he makes, what I’m not willing to do is hold him responsible for his bosses decisions, or judge him on the inability to turn a 3-14 team around in 8 months on the job, which is what many here have done. Even though he’s saddled with Kraft’s coaching staff he’s responsible for roster construction, and after the coming offseason they will have to show significant progress or he will be a goner. He has the $$& cap space and the draft picks to fix their most pressing problems, and he has to get that done. I won’t like it if he blows 30 million a year on a guy like Tee Higgins, who is a 20 million a year player, but the pressure is going to be on him to do just that. I’m really looking forward to the coming offseason, and I think it will make or break Wolf’s future here.

Noone expects Wolf to turn the team around. We do expect him to have a good FA and a good draft. In 2024 his FA and draft were so bad I do not want Wolf to get a 2nd chance to further weaken the roster. Wolf should be fired and RK should hire a professional like the Commanders and Chargers did.

 

[KCSVEN]

Is there a case for Wolf

To play devil's advocate because you should always weigh all the evidence.
(Devil's Advocate means not all my positions I want to defend LOL))

-He did not hire Mayo, how much of the underachieving is due to bad coaching he has no Control over?
-He had contacts to get AVP who is the best of the top 3 coaches.
-Under BB, he was one voice among many that BB listened to and BB made the final decision on, so can't knock him for what happened before this year
-He resisted the other options and just took Drake Maye
-His 4th round pick is already starting and showing positive growth signs. If he becomes a regular solid starter they got 2 starters from this draft which is average for the NFL, so he'd have an average draft at worst.
-3rd round pick has been injured but showed signs of a possible future starting RT
-Lowe has outplayed all the other options people wanted him to get at Left Tackle
-Dell Pettus is playing meaningful snaps and playing pretty well as an UDFA
-Picked Ben Brown (practice squad steal) and D. Jacobs (Waiver Claim) off scrap heap, could have been worse.
-Not his fault Chuks retired
-Traded an aging and fading Judon for a 3rd when everyone said no way he gets better than a 4th
-Aggressively went for Aiyuk and Ridley, would he have gotten them if they had hired a different coach? Was it about location and they never had a chance?
-Did he get screwed by Tyler Hughes, who was at Washington with Polk? Hughes obviously gave them glowing review from inside the football team, was he wrong for taking that advice? Yes, but you also feel like Hughes should be the 1 fired over the Polk pick.

Also, comparing to other teams the 3 that improved the most is Washington, Broncos and Chargers. Interestingly you could argue all 3 mainly got better due to better coaching and adding 1-2 players in the draft) not due so much to any great GM moves.

The other bad teams from last year:
Panthers, Cards, Titans, Giants, Jets, Bears, Falcons, Raiders, Pats pretty much didn't improve.

I could go on but I'm kind of starting to reach a bit LOL.

If Mayo goes, I think the new coach should have say in the GM. Otherwise, Wolf is going to get 1 more off-season to prove he can be a good GM. He will do well or be out of a job in a year.

 

[Thunderhead]

I genuinely believe the franchise is doomed if the FO (including scouts) is not wiped out and replaced with competent people. It's a much bigger issue than coaching. I agree with Bedard that they could become the Jets for the next decade+.

 

[Grogan14]

This McConkey is a "slot receiver" schtick is so old. We already have "3 of those"? LOL. If we had McConkey, we could release our "3 of those" and be MUCH MUCH better off.

Sorry, I am sure you prefer to have Polk and Baker instead of McConkey because we already have "3 of those". Dude, you have any idea how silly you look.

1000%. McConkey has played as wide out both at UGA and in pros and he has been very successful.
Just because he is white, many think he can only be a slot receiver. It wasn't true at the time he was drafted and its not true now.

In any event, I would rather have a great extra slot receiver than 2 complete busts like Polk and Baker who can not play slot or outside.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I believe Wolfe and Mayo are coming back, hopefully the results are better this off-season/next year.
They're learning the HARD WAY... I'm just hoping they GET IT.

 

[Love The Drake]

This keeps getting worse

 

[Huckleberry1]

Agreed. We have to assume Kraft liked him for some reason. And I assume he’s getting at least another year.

I just think there’s not enough evidence to support both sides of the argument. “We don’t know Wolf’s input, so he shouldn’t be held liable for advising Bill’s picks.” Or “We know Wolf gave input, so he is somewhat liable for advising Bill’s pics.” He’s like the Scroedinger’s cat of GMs.

For me it’s simple. The person with final say takes credit and gets the blame for personal de visions they make, regardless of who counseled what. Belichick owns his decisions, good and bad, and the same goes for Wolf. I won’t be blaming Matt Groh for bad decisions Wolf makes.

 

[NFL Mystique]

"Other than Belichick which coaches scout, draft, and sign players?"


I'm referring to Wolf. Not Mayo. Same goes for both. Keeping guys because the new guy could somehow possibly be worse isn't a reason to keep someone..

 

[mgteich]

I think there is a solid data-based case to dismiss Eliot Wolf.
I know it's early in his GM tenure, and there may be some longer-term strategy behind the really questionable handling of offseason spending on OL and WR.

But here are the facts.
He's not entirely in his first year with the Patriots.
Eliot Wolf was a consultant in scouting in 2020-2021, then Director of Scouting in 2022-2023, and then GM in 2024.
So, while Bill was the official GM, Eliot was charged with providing player recommendations and influencing his final decisions on free agency and the draft.
Let's look at the results.

Red is underperformed based on the acquisition cost, green is overperformed.
No "underperforms" for fourth round draft on, but you'd like to see one hit a year at least from that group.

2022 Draft
Cole Strange
Tyquan Thornton
Marcus Jones
Jack Jones
Pierre Strong
Bailey Zappe
Kevin Harris
Sam Roberts
Chasen Hinds
Andrew Stueber

2022 Free Agency
DaVante Parker
Mack Wilson
Raekwon McMillan
DaMarcus Mitchell
Jabrill Peppers

2022 Key Departures
Jarrett Stidham
Shaq Mason
Ted Karras

2023 Draft
Christian Gonzalez
Keion White
Marte Mapu
Jake Andrews
Chad Ryland
Sidy Sow
Atonio Mafi
Kayshon Boutte
Bryce Barringer
Demario Douglas
Ameer Speed
Isaiah Bolden

2023 Free Agency
Ezekiel Elliot
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Tyrone Wheatley Jr
Riley Reiff
Calvin Anderson

2023 Key Departures
Pierre Strong
Jakobi Meyers
Johnnu Smith
Nick Folk

2024 Draft
Drake Maye
Ja'Lynn Polk
Caedan Wallace
Layden Robinson
Javon Baker
Marcellas Dial
Joe Milton
Jaheim Bell

2024 Free Agency
Jacoby Brissett
Antonio Gibson
JaMycal Hasty
Austin Hooper
Chukwama Okorafor
Nick Leverett
Michael Jordan
Christian Elliss
Marco Wilson
Dell Pettus
JaLinn Hawkins
Joey Slye

2024 Key Departures
DaVante Parker
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Trent Brown
Lawrence Guy
Matthew Judon
Chad Ryland

Seven hits - including Drake Maye, which was a complete layup.
Sixteen misses. More if you include mistakes of omission.
You can debate - well, I really think it's eight hits. Or you can't count over-drafting a kicker in the fourth as a miss. Not replacing Lawrence Guy was really a miss. No penalties assessed for the contract decisions on Dugg
Plenty of debate possible.
However, it's a LOT more misses than hits.

While the offense has been terrible, most of us question whether it's the roster more than the coaches. Complete lack of talent across the OL and WR roster.
And that's on Wolf.
The decisions in 2024 were terrible, and the personnel decisions in which he had influence under Bill were terrible.
This draft - too early to evaluate - but signs that all they got was the #3 overall pick.

I would immediately replace Eliot Wolf.

Wol g

I think there is a solid data-based case to dismiss Eliot Wolf.
I know it's early in his GM tenure, and there may be some longer-term strategy behind the really questionable handling of offseason spending on OL and WR.

But here are the facts.
He's not entirely in his first year with the Patriots.
Eliot Wolf was a consultant in scouting in 2020-2021, then Director of Scouting in 2022-2023, and then GM in 2024.
So, while Bill was the official GM, Eliot was charged with providing player recommendations and influencing his final decisions on free agency and the draft.
Let's look at the results.

Red is underperformed based on the acquisition cost, green is overperformed.
No "underperforms" for fourth round draft on, but you'd like to see one hit a year at least from that group.

2022 Draft
Cole Strange
Tyquan Thornton
Marcus Jones
Jack Jones
Pierre Strong
Bailey Zappe
Kevin Harris
Sam Roberts
Chasen Hinds
Andrew Stueber

2022 Free Agency
DaVante Parker
Mack Wilson
Raekwon McMillan
DaMarcus Mitchell
Jabrill Peppers

2022 Key Departures
Jarrett Stidham
Shaq Mason
Ted Karras

2023 Draft
Christian Gonzalez
Keion White
Marte Mapu
Jake Andrews
Chad Ryland
Sidy Sow
Atonio Mafi
Kayshon Boutte
Bryce Barringer
Demario Douglas
Ameer Speed
Isaiah Bolden

2023 Free Agency
Ezekiel Elliot
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Tyrone Wheatley Jr
Riley Reiff
Calvin Anderson

2023 Key Departures
Pierre Strong
Jakobi Meyers
Johnnu Smith
Nick Folk

2024 Draft
Drake Maye
Ja'Lynn Polk
Caedan Wallace
Layden Robinson
Javon Baker
Marcellas Dial
Joe Milton
Jaheim Bell

2024 Free Agency
Jacoby Brissett
Antonio Gibson
JaMycal Hasty
Austin Hooper
Chukwama Okorafor
Nick Leverett
Michael Jordan
Christian Elliss
Marco Wilson
Dell Pettus
JaLinn Hawkins
Joey Slye

2024 Key Departures
DaVante Parker
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Trent Brown
Lawrence Guy
Matthew Judon
Chad Ryland

Seven hits - including Drake Maye, which was a complete layup.
Sixteen misses. More if you include mistakes of omission.
You can debate - well, I really think it's eight hits. Or you can't count over-drafting a kicker in the fourth as a miss. Not replacing Lawrence Guy was really a miss. No penalties assessed for the contract decisions on Dugg
Plenty of debate possible.
However, it's a LOT more misses than hits.

While the offense has been terrible, most of us question whether it's the roster more than the coaches. Complete lack of talent across the OL and WR roster.
And that's on Wolf.
The decisions in 2024 were terrible, and the personnel decisions in which he had influence under Bill were terrible.
This draft - too early to evaluate - but signs that all they got was the #3 overall pick.

I would immediately replace Eliot Wolf.

I DISAGREE
It is not a firing offense to draft Polk (and Baker) who the staff had experience with and who was judged the next day to have been an OK WR picked a half round or 3/4 of a round early.

It is not a firing Offense to sign Okorafor as our LT. It was of course a major error. This mistake was probably the difference between where we will pick and picking in the teens.
====================
1) Wolf has made decisions for exactly ONE year. What you have stated in the case against Belichick.

2) You should be congratulating Wolf on the 2024 KEY departures instead of considering them reasons for him to be fired.

3) I agree that folks disagree with Wolf's off-season strategy of signing and extending the vets and saving the cap money until such time as
we had a QB. They would have sign top free agents and HOPED that we were able to draft the QB of the future, and that the QB could be competitive in 2024. I get it. I just strongly disagree. You probably should find some way to punish the Kraft's. There is about 0.00% chance that they didn't agree to this approach.

Personally, I would made except and sign a top EDGE rusher since the team didn't want Judon as part of the future. Of course, that would have made Judon less valuable in trade.
========
FOR ME, WOLF MADE TWO REALLY BAD MISTAKES
A) The signing of Okorafor as the only free agent LT was gross negligence.
B) Not going BPA with our second draft pick was also a major mistake. The was an opportunity to draft very good DT or a CB. If everone was insistent on drafting Offense, then he should have trade down 10 or 20 places and gotten an extra pick.
======


The choice of Polk and then Baker instead of McConkey is understandable. There really was support for Polk as a 2nd round value at WR (although any here disagreed)/