mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

[mgcolby]

It's back. Not sure if anyone missed it but here it is anyway.

Will give the proverbial explanation for any newbies:

How it works:

At its core it is a model, based on the last four games played. There are several columns, most I think are self-explanatory but just in case:

Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head-to-head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head-to-head. Hence my statement above, I removed the "losing" teams spread to declutter the visual.
Live Spread: Is based on the line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that team's favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.

Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:

1. If you do use this as a tool for any degeneracy, do not come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami, injuries sustained during the game etc. Don't be a tool and be smart, use it as a tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
2. I always enjoy other people's thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.

I normally have write ups about games I find surprising or outright shocking, but this week I don't find any really shocking per se. Maybe the Saints and Bengals, maybe? I don't think its worth a writeup based on the teams first four games have played out.

Either way enjoy!

Week 5 Predictions

 

[Pape]

cool... was wondering if this might pop up again... kinda figured you'd need a few games to get going again...

 

[jmt57]

Thanks @mgcolby for making the time it takes putting this together. Ever since I was a young kid I've been into sports statistics, which is probably why math was always my best subject. Over the more recent years I've spent time at TeamRankings.com, looking at yards per play, opponent yards per play, etc. I miss Football Outsiders and their articles and DVOA and DYAR stats, that was a site I really enjoyed.


I am curious: I can't remember, does your system consider home field at all? To me home field seems to have become less of an advantage than it once was years ago, but that could be due to perception bias.

 

[Ian]

It's back. Not sure if anyone missed it but here it is anyway.

Will give the proverbial explanation for any newbies:

How it works:

At its core it is a Yards Per Point model, based on the last four games played. I have added/developed some wrinkles here and there over time in order to improve it. There are several columns, most I think are self-explanatory but just in case:

Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head-to-head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head-to-head. Hence my statement above, I removed the "losing" teams spread to declutter the visual.
Live Spread: Is based on the line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that team's favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.

Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:

1. If you do use this as a tool for any degeneracy, do not come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami, injuries sustained during the game etc. Don't be a tool and be smart, use it as a tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
2. I always enjoy other people's thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.

I normally have write ups about games I find surprising or outright shocking, but this week I don't find any really shocking per se. Maybe the Saints and Bengals, maybe? I don't think its worth a writeup based on the teams first four games have played out.

Either way enjoy!

Week 5 Predictions

This was really cool last year and excited to see this back on here. I'm obviously a stats/data nerd, so I've absolutely been a fan of this. Definitely curious to see how things play out over the course of the season. Good stuff.

 

[mgcolby]

Thanks @mgcolby for making the time it takes putting this together. Ever since I was a young kid I've been into sports statistics, which is probably why math was always my best subject. Over the more recent years I've spent time at TeamRankings.com, looking at yards per play, opponent yards per play, etc. I miss Football Outsiders and their articles and DVOA and DYAR stats, that was a site I really enjoyed.


I am curious: I can't remember, does your system consider home field at all? To me home field seems to have become less of an advantage than it once was years ago, but that could be due to perception bias.

I have substantially reduced the time it takes to do by automating all of it with power queries in Excel this year. I put a **** ton of time into the automation part and building the new models. However what used to take me an hour or two to handjam the team stats and make the schedule now takes the click of a button and about two minutes for everything to load. Which would be much faster but pro-football-reference puts you in cyber timeout if you make more than 10 connections a minute. So I have a built in delay between team urls to get the data in the power query.

Now I have working notebook that pulls in the picks from all three models and that needed some tweaking yesterday. The only other thing that takes a few minutes now is to adjust the weekly picks for the amount of games. But by the end of the year I should have a template for each scenario 13 games, 14 games with an international game etc ...

Yes it used to account for 3 points to the home team. I have reduced that to 2 points. You are correct it isn't what it once was, but the average between 2020 and 2023 was just under 2.5, I don't recall the exact number, but I decided to round down. And speaking of HFA and international games, I removed the HFA from the scores for the international game(s) this year. I had not done this in the past but I don't believe there is any HFA in these games.

Funny you mention yards per play as I have a new model I am testing out that uses that as a an additional dataset. Actually, I have the math applied two separate ways that I am treating as two separate models. Going to see how they do for the season before deciding if it will be the new picker or not. The new models had a better week 4 ATS, even on the straight picks and worse on the over under.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 5 Results

Much like last year off to a **** start.

Ignore the Model 1 and Model 2. I am tracking the results of adding a fourth data set and I am too lazy to create multiple record tables.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6 Predictions

Apologies for the late posting. I am attending a race in Georgia and between traveling and dabbling in livations I hadn't had a chance to get this up here.

Obviously as you will see it continued it **** picking from last week with the Thursday night game.

One note: I noticed this week that formula for the predicted spread column is not functioning properly by aligning with the pick of each game, I will look at that this week. However the live spread is aligning with the correct pick for each game, so use that for a quick reference.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6 Results

Once again no words. **** week and start. Reminiscent of a few weeks last year.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 7 Predictions

Before I get into the games a quick housekeeping update:

1. Fixed the issue with the wrong predicted spread displaying. I have a conditional formatting rule that is supposed to blank out the cell that does not coincide with the pick. I made the correction, everything is the way it should be.
2. I removed a decimal point to give what I think is a cleaner look. I initially removed the decimals all together for the predicted score. I felt the rounding up and down could be confusing. So, I decided to keep the one decimal.
3. I also changed the font for the team names and bolded the pickers play in that game. Thinking it will help folks identify the play quicker.

To the games:
TNF
Den/NO: 29 points from Denver? Denver is averaging nearly 22 ppg over the last 4 while New Orleans is allowing over 450 yards per game on defense and a eye opening 29.5 points. Denver's defense is playing stifling defense allowing 287 yards per game along with 14.2 ppg. I expect NO's offense to struggle against this defense and Denver to have some room to move the ball on offense. The biggest question is can Denver put it in the End Zone? They are converting at a rate of 50% in the red zone 9 TDs in 18 trips while NO's is allowing teams to score 38% of the time. On the flip side, NO's offense has been excellent in the red zone converting 71% while Denver's defense has been equally as impressive allowing just 4 TDs in 12 trips allowed. I see a closer game than the picker does, but I think my play would be the over.

Homers
NE/JAX: Ah, even the picker is on the Drake Maye wagon, at least with a little boost from the oddsmakers. I personally can't trust this Pats team to play disciplined enough to beat anyone right now. I also think in this game Jacksonville does have a homefield advantage, even though the picker treated this as a neutral field, given the fact they have been in London for two weeks now. And that is not whining, I do believe they deserve it. Regardless of what you may think of the international games Jacksonville stepped up to play multiple games over there. So, it is what it is. I think I agree, the Pats keep this game close or maybe the ineptness of both teams, at this point, will keep it close. With that said I agree with the picker rolling with the Pats and the points here.

Head Scratchers

NYG/PHI: I do not agree here, so lets dig into the numbers on this one. First the offensive numbers are nearly identical between the two team:
Yards/Points
NYG: 343/18
PHI: 356/18
As you can see both teams are moving the football up and down the field but simply struggle to put points on the scoreboard. Both teams are 8 of 18 in the red zone conversions. The Giants have a bit of an edge on defense allowing 287/18 to Philly's 353/20.8 which accounts for point differential in this weeks pick. Another interesting note is that both defenses have allowed 17 trips to the red zone and allowed 7 TDs. Philly comes into this game -4 in the turnover battle giving the ball away 5 times in the past four games while the Giants are -1 also giving it away 5 times. Both teams have played tough schedules with SoS at or above 500%. This is a no play for me but if forced to make a play I would take the under.

Ten/BUF: I won't deep dive into the numbers on this one but essentially Buffalo's defense is what is pushing the pickers towards Tennessee. Buffalo's defense is allowing 371 yards and 22 ppg and Tennessee's offense has been pretty efficient gaining 255 yards and scoring 19.8 ppg. However a lot of Tennessee's numbers are skewered by the Miami win. Me personally I disagree with the picker here. But again, some of the numbers support it, Tennessee's average loss is by 8.25 points with three of the 4 by a TD or less. The one outlier is losing by 16 to GB. Not sure if this a play for me but I would lean laying the chalk here. It will be interesting to see what Amari Cooper can do to help the Bills offense over the course of the year, but I would think it will be limited this week.

Game(s) of the week!
We have some Dandy's baby!
Lets start with the SB rematch:

KC/SF: Turnovers! Both offenses have been turnover machines this season including the last four games: KC 7 and SF 8 respectively. That is some sloppiness normally reserved for Vivid Entertainment - not two of the best offenses in the NFL. San Francisco's offense has been much better averaging 430 yards and 28 points while Kansas City's defense has been much stiffer allowing 269 yards and 16 points. Now where the defenses differ is on forced turnovers, KC only forcing 3 while SF has forced 7. I think this one is simple, whichever team wins the turnover battle will come out on top. I like SF in this one on the MoneyLine and with the picker on the under as well.

Det/MIN: Who had this one picked as a competitive game much less IMO the game of the week? Goes to show why looking at the schedule before the season, especially in April and trying to make judgements about who has a tough or weak schedule is foolish. I mean Sam ****ing Darnold....yep that guy. What a start to the season. Good for him. And fortunately for him he doesn't have to deal with Hutchinson off the edge (****ty for him, hope he heals quick) allowing more time to find his plethora of weapons. Talk about efficiency gaining 326 yards while scoring 27.5 per game. Doesn't get much better than that, well actually it doesn't get better than that they lead the league over their last four games in Yards Per Point scored 11.7. Detroit is no slouch either averaging 429 yards scoring 31.2 for a 13.7 yards per point scored. Both offenses are well oiled efficient machines.

Now how about those defenses? well pretty close there too. Detroit is allowing 315 yards and 17.8 ppg while Minny is allowing 353 for 17.5 ppg. As mentioned above it will remain to be seen what kind of drop off will occur for Detroit minus Hutchinson. But based on games played so far both teams are only separated by 2.5 yards per point allowed and 2 yards per point scored. Like I said game of the week!

So, what gives? Minnesota has turned the ball over 5 times in the past two games which sounds catastrophic but their defense has saved the day by causing a whopping 7 turnovers giving them a +2 in the turnover battle. Now look back at that efficiency on offense and you can see the defense has helped that by providing short fields. At the same time Detroit has not turned the ball over in the past two games and only twice in the past four. But its defense has forced 7 themselves in the past two games 9 in the past four giving them a silly +7 in the past two weeks and a +6 in the past four. As always, "its the economy stupid", turnovers will most likely determine the winner on Sunday.

With Minnesota coming off a bye and Detroit on the road for the second week in a row along with the loss of Hutchinson, I am with the picker on the home team here, my play would be the Money line and I would lean towards the over.

I'm hoping the picker gets the ship righted this week.

 

[jmt57]

Interesting, because I stumbled across an article today or yesterday that was similarly adamant that the Giants should be the pick over the Eagles - despite the Vegas line, and prevailing assumption that Philly is a much better team than NYG.
Apparently many still have that 9-1 start from last year stuck in their brains, and assume the Eagles will revert to the team that they were in the first half of 2023, or all of 2022.


I'm also surprised that the software has Green Bay favored by 5 over Houston, but I haven't done a deep dive on either team.
I guess I came into the season thinking that the Packers would regress to the norm after exceeding mainstream expectations last year.


On a related note, how about that NFC North?
Best division in football right now, when was the last time one could say that?
All four teams have a winning record, with a collective 16-4 record outside of their own division.

 

[mgcolby]

Interesting, because I stumbled across an article today or yesterday that was similarly adamant that the Giants should be the pick over the Eagles - despite the Vegas line, and prevailing assumption that Philly is a much better team than NYG.
Apparently many still have that 9-1 start from last year stuck in their brains, and assume the Eagles will revert to the team that they were in the first half of 2023, or all of 2022.


I'm also surprised that the software has Green Bay favored by 5 over Houston, but I haven't done a deep dive on either team.
I guess I came into the season thinking that the Packers would regress to the norm after exceeding mainstream expectations last year.


On a related note, how about that NFC North?
Best division in football right now, when was the last time one could say that?
All four teams have a winning record, with a collective 16-4 record outside of their own division.

Yes, I was surprised by the Giants and Philly's numbers. I think it's two fold Philly's 2022 season, combined with the 9-1 start before the wheels fell of last year and the Giants general ineptness over the past few seasons, especially with lackluster play from the QB position. I have the same biases/perceptions, but the numbers are nearly identical against similar competition.

With that said the Picker has not been reliable ATS so far this season. I do blame that on inconsistent play from teams week to week. But I digress.

Just for clarity it's not software, I would like to convert it to an app at some point. It's just a very large Excel workbook full of data and a worksheet with a very long series of formulas.

I think GB is a very good team and I personally thought they were a team that would continue their ascension into this season. I believe they are a legitimate SB contender. I haven't looked into the numbers here but I am not shocked. In fact the new models I built and am monitoring have the Packers favored by 11.

As far as the NFC North, Detroit and Minnesota have faced tougher competition than GB and Chicago thus far. But obviously Chicago is playing with a rookie QB and GB played two games with a backup. It is impressive. I never thought Minny would win 5 games all season with Sam Darnold.

Obviously, Chicago made some great moves via trades last year to prep for this year and it has paid off so far. I think it's a great example for what the Pats should attempt to do. Get some proven talent who's under contract and has to come here. Now, I get Chicago was in a much better position to do so thanks to the Carolina trade. But if you can add a player or two at a position of need now, it can only help expedite the rebuilding process.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 7 Results

Improvement but ever subtle ATS. Great week on the Over/Unders for my predictions. ****ing TB and LAC couldn't come through to save my ass, and make my **** presentable for company. Nope, LA has to choke at the end and TB made it look better than it was. Although, I think losing Evans early really changed the dynamic of the game. Godwin is good as a two, but he just doesn't open up the field the way Evans does as the one. And speaking of both, hopefully Evans will be back soon, but Godwin is done. That was a gross injury. Tampa will miss both and will struggle mightily as long as Evans is out.

My new Models had winning weeks across the board which is promising. I will stick with my original through the year and then decide which way to go next year. But so far, the original is looking a little worn.

Still have plenty of weeks to go.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 Predictions

I had a small writeup but it was lost do to a connection error. Basically I hope it has a better week than the past 3. I personally think it could be an 8-10 win week for the picker based on what I think could happen but then again that may spell doom.

I figured I would throw in the other model predictions as well.

 

[Ian]

I need to create a thread tag for you to make it easier to find every week on one page. I’ll get on that tonight when I get home.

 

[Ian]

I need to create a thread tag for you to make it easier to find every week on one page. I’ll get on that tonight when I get home.

This has been done, and I’ll go back through your other threads and tag those as soon as I have some extra time

Update: someone beat me to it

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 Results


Finally off the schneid. Rough start for the picker but a 10 win week is a good start at turning it around. Would have been nice if it hit over 50% on the over/under but it was not in the cards.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9 Predictions

TNF:
Houston traveling to the meadowlands to take on the Jets dwelling in their "darkness" as 2.5 point dogs. First lets look at the Saleh affect on the defense, I believe this was pointed during the broadcast, but the last four weeks its been well not good. Last two weeks vs the Steelers and Pats they are allowing 31 points per game on 328 yards. The prior two games against the Bills and Vikings they allowed 23 points per game on 306 yards against much better offenses. The last four weeks they are allowing 317 yards and 27 PPG, while only scoring 18.5 ppg on 326 yards. Texans seemingly allow 20-24 points each week. While scoring 23-24 with the exception of the Pats. The Texans are 2nd in the league in pressures at 43.8% with a defensive success rate of 75.8%, the Jets are 24th in the league against pressure, in other words probably going to be a tough day for Mr Rodgers. Now, depending on the status of the big boy in the middle for the Jets (Williams), he too could wreak havoc if healthy against an interior O-line allowing the most sacks in the league. The Texans have been trying to help the interior offensive line by using a lot of 21 personnel, look for that to continue. The Jets offense is not right nor do I think there locker room, hell organization the whole organization is not right, however about 20 points seems right for the Jets here. Stroud and company will have room to move the football and put up some points 24-27 seems to be where they tend to fall, no reason to think it won't happen here. I agree with this one and would lean the Moneyline here and the over.

Head Scratchers: ?

Den/Bal: Wow, I don't typically like disagreeing with my crystal ball, but this one is pushing it. Denver over Baltimore by 5...I don't know. But then again they did just lose to Cleveland, so ****. Also, as you will note the blondes (new models) disagree with the tried and true drastically. I would have to go back through the weekly picks, but I don't recall seeing such a big difference in score predictions between the new and old models. Its a 20 point swing. I have to say I think I agree with the blondes here at first sight. But as a great man once said (a lot), not so fast my friend. The Broncos defense is definitely good top ten in just about every defensive metric. On the other side the Ravens defense has been really bad. Two games under 24 points and five games over 25 points. Two in the last four over 30. In fact over the past four games the Ravens are allowing 30.3ppg on 407 yards. That is as the kids say not good. I can see why the original has its prediction, but personally I can't take a rookie QB on the road in Baltimore to win the game outright. Against the spread? Well that I can see, 9.5 is a lot of points in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised if the public pushes this up to 10.5-11 by kickoff. This is a no play for me ATS or SU, but I really like the over here.

NO/Car: This game will come down to.....screw it, I ain't got the energy for this **** game and these **** teams.

The Patriots:
NE/Ten: Maybe will come back to this later in the week when we know Maye's status.

Game of the Week:
Not sure I see a game of the week. It would obviously be Detroit vs Green Bay but with Love's status up in the air going to pass on a write up about it.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9 Results

Well, I gotta tell ya, folks, this week’s got me feeling all a bit sad. I knew some changes had to be made late last year.
Sure, the picker had one hell of a run to end last season - 10-3 against the spread in the playoffs! Managed to pull itself out of that slump, way down in the dark depths of self-doubt. But man, it was rough there for a while. The picker hit rock bottom, trying to drown its sorrows one drink after another. I knew this wasn’t sustainable. I had to pull the picker together, straighten up, and get its act back on track. I believed in its instincts, I knew it still had value, but I just couldn’t figure out why the losses kept piling up week after week. So, I started reworking the numbers, even back before the pickers low point. But I Just couldn’t put my finger on what was wrong.

So, over the winter, I rolled up my sleeves and got to work, crunching numbers till it finally hit me. The teams - they were just too inconsistent, week to week, let alone over a four-week stretch! I needed something steady, something reliable. Back to the numbers I went, experimenting with new formulas. There it was, clear as day: the stabilizer! But not just the four week average - no, this would need to be the season average, a stabilizer. So, I added it to the mix, and bam - New Model 1 was born. And then I thought, “What if I work it in before factoring home-team points?” And just like that, Model 2 came to life.

At first, they were interesting, but they weren’t quite the classic, the OG of my formulas. But soon enough, they started keeping up with the original. Then they took a steady climb, and that rise hit its peak in Week 9! And because I’m a person of my word, I’ll stick with the original through the rest of the season. But I think it’s nearly time to admit that the new models - especially Model 2 - are gonna be the new standard next year.

This week, the original and the new models disagreed on seven games. The new models swept them all.



Original


New Model 1


New Model 2

 

[Ian]

Week 9 Results

Well, I gotta tell ya, folks, this week’s got me feeling all a bit sad. I knew some changes had to be made late last year.
Sure, the picker had one hell of a run to end last season - 10-3 against the spread in the playoffs! Managed to pull itself out of that slump, way down in the dark depths of self-doubt. But man, it was rough there for a while. The picker hit rock bottom, trying to drown its sorrows one drink after another. I knew this wasn’t sustainable. I had to pull the picker together, straighten up, and get its act back on track. I believed in its instincts, I knew it still had value, but I just couldn’t figure out why the losses kept piling up week after week. So, I started reworking the numbers, even back before the pickers low point. But I Just couldn’t put my finger on what was wrong.

So, over the winter, I rolled up my sleeves and got to work, crunching numbers till it finally hit me. The teams - they were just too inconsistent, week to week, let alone over a four-week stretch! I needed something steady, something reliable. Back to the numbers I went, experimenting with new formulas. There it was, clear as day: Yards Per Play! But not just the four week average - no, this would need to be the season average, a stabilizer. So, I added it to the mix, and bam - New Model 1 was born. And then I thought, “What if I work it in before factoring home-team points?” And just like that, Model 2 came to life.

At first, they were interesting, but they weren’t quite the classic, the OG of my formulas. But soon enough, they started keeping up with the original. Then they took a steady climb, and that rise hit its peak in Week 9! And because I’m a person of my word, I’ll stick with the original through the rest of the season. But I think it’s nearly time to admit that the new models - especially Model 2 - are gonna be the new standard next year.

This week, the original and the new models disagreed on seven games. The new models swept them all.



Original


New Model 1


New Model 2

That's pretty amazing, especially in a league that has had a lot of unpredictable finishes this season. Definitely curious to see how these next few weeks go

 

[mgcolby]

Week 10 Predictions
(Note: All game writeups are still based on the original predictor)

TNF
Cin/Bal: Got what should be as good as it gets for a Thursday night game. Cincy looking to continue clawing their way back out of the gutter and this week they have to fittingly do it in Baltimore. Baltimore comes in trying to keep Cincy in the rearview and keep pace with those pesky Steelers. The crystal ball sees a virtual tie despite the rather generous spread. This is not a surprise, statistically they are pretty even in most categories with the exception of Yards gained and Points scored per game, Baltimore has a significant lead in those categories. But, where Baltimore gains far more yards and scores about 10 points more per game, their offense is slightly less efficient than Cincy's. Cincy is averaging 12.3 yards per point versus Baltimore's 13.1. And once again in yards per point against Cincy has the exact same difference of 0.8, 15.4 to 16.2. I think the Ravens have played slightly better competition and the Bengals giving up an average of 130 yards per game on the ground may make for a long day in Baltimore. The Bengals can possibly avert total disaster and even sneak out of Baltimore with a win if they can take advantage of Baltimore's last place pass defense and jump out to a double digit lead early. I think 6.5 points is a lot for an AFC North divisional game on a short week between two teams who were separated by a Field Goal in their last meeting a few weeks ago. I like the over here and would take the points if forced to pick.

Head Scratchers:
I truly can't find any...Maybe Minnesota and Jacksonville? But Minnesota does like to let people hang around and Jacksonville loves making their fans think there is a chance.

Game of the Week: Wait this can't be right. Rechecking to make sure. Yep, it is. Wow
The Washington Commanders vs the Pittsburgh Steelers, I have to check the calendar what is this 1984? get out of here with this craziness. Well, here we go. The matchup of two different tales: the wash up trying to prove he can still get those stains out of the old t-shirt against the shiny new hood ornament. And the crystal ball has it as a dead heat. And don't look now, but the Steelers just picked up Mike Williams, talk about getting crazy with the cheese whiz, that zout bottle is getting worked over time in Steel city. They're washing all the laundry over there baby! And and don't overlook Washington going out and picking up Lattimore from New Orleans or shall we say, saving him from New Orleans. This should be a great game the 2nd ranked defense (PPG) against the 3rd ranked offense (PPG) as well as the 4th and 5th ranked teams in the all new ER rankings. Thats right my very own efficiency rankings has the Steelers 4th and the Redskins 5th with an ER Rating of 8.2 and 9.7 respectfully. Now the Redskins defense is no slouch either ranking 11th in defense (PPG) while Pittsburgh comes in 13th offensively. I have to say it doesn't get a whole lot closer.

Another game I think I would shy away from on the points. I think if I were to make this is a play it would be on the Steelers and the Over.

Going to throw out a couple new things I have been working on and introduced last week elsewhere:

Efficiency Ratings (ER) Power Rankings, I will post them separately to not over clutter this post.

And Shamlock, he is officially 1-0 in his picks after stating Detroit -3.5 was the Shamlock of the week.

I wanted to add a pick of the week. So, I invent....invited the greatest pontificator I know. Shamlock!

This segment will be known as Shamlock's pick of the week!

Thats right Shamlock's pick of the week, others claim their prowess with their "Locks" of the day or week. Well, we know those claims are ********, bunklocks, fauxlocks or fraudlocks if you will. After much pontificating on the matter; I chose Shamlock to extensively review my picks and give me his can't lose play of the week. Shamlock is giving all of you one game each week that is a guaranteed lo....ah...winner!



Shamlock says: Atlanta -3.5

I’ll have more ta say in the future. For now, grand ta meet all ye Puritan bastards!
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