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Endogeneity is real.Not sure the point of that, in recent NFL history it's obvious passing relates to playoffs, rushing does not. The average NFL winning team is scoring 23 points, so 20 or under makes sense. The study below also proves it but I bet the effect is much more toward passing in recent history as this is from 2005, passing offenses are way more efficient today, I'd say the evidence is OVERWHELMING that a good/great passing offense is a guarantee of making the playoffs, rushing offense has no real effect on making playoffs. Partly because teams can stack the box and stop the run and playoff teams can stop run without stacking the box, much harder to stop a great passing attack.
Teams that win the turnover margin win the game almost 70 percent of the time.
Teams that win TOP win 67% of games
So in 900 regular season games, about 4% of this stat applies. When you just take out TO margin it leaves you with 13-14 games where the other things mattered.
Analyses by Jeremy Arkes, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School:
A problem with these simple assessments is that teams that are winning will rush the ball more to run out the clock and reduce the chance of turnovers and will often wait until the clock runs down before starting a play. So, if a team is heading towards victory, they are likely to increase their rushing yards while boosting their time of possession
The twist in this analysis is that the model corrects for endogeneity by using the first-half statistics. This essentially strips a large portion of the endogenous component from these statistics, as teams are not likely to change strategies to “ball preservation” or “speedy catch up” until the second half. Given that 78.5 percent of teams leading at halftime in 2005 games ended up winning the game, having a halftime advantage in many of these statistics should contribute to a higher probability of winning
This paper is the first analysis to model a production function for winning an NFL game based on in-game statistics. This carefully constructed framework, which models victories based on home-team over away-team statistics, can be used for other models for winning games in the NFL or in other sports leagues.
The results of this analysis cast doubt on the contention that the key to winning games in the NFL is to control the rushing game. The results do indicate that having a rushing advantage for the full game is positively correlated with the probability of winning and having a passing advantage for the full game is not correlated with winning, holding other factors constant. However, these correlations are likely due to endogeneity, in that full-game rushing and passing yards are partly products of a team’s success during the game. In other words, as demonstrated in this paper, the strategy for second-half rushing-passing mix depends on where a team stands at halftime. This means that we cannot label these correlations as causal influences.
#### Results
I find that having a first-half passing-yard advantage increases the probability of winning, but having a first-half rushing-yard advantage has no significant effect.
The results in this analysis suggest that NFL coaches may be more successful if they were to place more emphasis on the passing game than on the running game
Is Controlling the Rushing or Passing Game the Key to NFL Victories?
Jeremy Arkes, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School ### Abstract #### Purpose To evaluate whether controlling the running game or the passing game contributes more to winning in the NFL. #### Methods This analysis uses...thesportjournal.org
But rushing vs. passing has little to do with it.
After conducting thorough research, I've concluded that the biggest factors are which hand I'm drinking my beer from during a game.
Also if I'm eating Cheezits, results are significantly different from me munching on pistachios












