Drake Questions

[Force Zero Boomer]

I previously posted the analysis on sitting a QB or not and how it concluded sitting a QB has zero benefit and top 10 drafted QB's on bad teams do better starting year 1. So historically and statistically Maye should start.

Zero benefit? Statistically, maybe, but I'd consider not getting a major injury because you have a porous OL and below average WRs to be a major benefit. What are the stats on the injury rate for QBs with poor OLs?

 

[Zuma]

I think the hardest part of picking your franchise QB is getting the right person-character/ leader/demeanor/temperment

Brady and Mahomes both sat a season and were ready to go for year 2. Sit him until the line is strong, then let him go from there.

Agree. And every QB is different with development. While one QB could start and not completely fail…another may benefit from sitting a year. I don’t think it’s a black or white thing…there is some gray there…every player is different. Regardless…sitting can never hurt but playing may…permanently.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Keep 4.

Send the 3rd and 4th QBs to the practice squad. No one is signing Zappe or Milton... If either is signed away, so be it. No big deal. Milton is not going to play anyways. Just like with Cunningham, you won't even notice he's gone.

Wait, so Maye is backing up Brissette? You only get 3 elevations to the roster before a player must be signed to the 53.

 

[State]

I do not even want him as the backup until the left side of the line is solidified.
Keep Zappe as the backup if Jacoby is injured ... feed Zappe to the wolves.

Seriously, this. Maye will be an emotional wreck with constant blindside pressure.

VLowe or Chuks Okorafor or Calvin Anderson at LT? Maybe pixie dust is sprinkled on one of ‘em. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Agree. And every QB is different with development. While one QB could start and not completely fail…another may benefit from sitting a year. I don’t think it’s a black or white thing…there is some gray there. Regardless…sitting can never hurt but playing may…permanently.

And this is true especially for Maye. We know he has two major areas that must improve for him to succeed in the NFL: his footwork and throwing motion. They can be fixed, especially at his young age, but he needs time for his new form and footwork to bake in.

Anyone who has played a sport and worked hard to improve some physical aspect of their game knows it takes time. I played a lot of basketball growing up and was pretty good, but my instructor at basketball camp pointed out that my release was too low, making it easier to block my shot. We worked hard on my form. It took all summer, but by the end my release was where it should be and I was much harder to guard.

 

[Zuma]

And this is true especially for Maye. We know he has two major areas that must improve for him to succeed in the NFL: his footwork and throwing motion. They can be fixed, especially at his young age, but he needs time for his new form and footwork to bake in.

Anyone who has played a sport and worked hard to improve some physical aspect of their game knows it takes time. I played a lot of basketball growing up and was pretty good, but my instructor at basketball camp pointed out that my release was too low, making it easier to block my shot. We worked hard on my form. It took all summer, but by the end my release was where it should be and I was much harder to guard.

I’m putting the footwork as the highest priority only because it’s easier to fix and IMO more of an issue when it happen which is not all the time. I get the hitch throwing thing but then I start to worry about changing too much and Maye feeling robotic. I’m good with fixing the feet and learning the playbook. Etc.

 

[State]

Maye also gets hard on himself. He had some bad games last season. The one against NC State, the last regular season game, was a real clunker.

I don’t buy into the hype. He’s a first round talent. But not where he was taken. Don’t automatically put him in franchise status. That’s gotta be earned.

 

[KCSVEN]

Zero benefit? Statistically, maybe, but I'd consider not getting a major injury because you have a porous OL and below average WRs to be a major benefit. What are the stats on the injury rate for QBs with poor OLs?

The Pats line ranked about where Houston did the year before they got Stroud(mid 20's), I expect the line will be better with real coaching the same way Houston got to around 18-20th best line. Was fine for him.

Bryce Young didn't get hurt, Sam Howell didn't get hurt, I think we are waaaaaay over playing the level of bad this line might possibly be and how often QB's get hurt because of that. Sure, the more you get hit the higher % chance of injury but it's not that much more, especially for a well-built, mobile QB.

David Carr was sacked 76 times and played all 16 games.
Peak Randall Cunningham ran over 100 times and sacked almost 50 and played all 16 games.
Cunnngham got hurt on the same play Brady got hurt on, hit low in the pockets on a throw, which is now illegal.

All The top 27 highest sacked QB's in a season played pretty much every game that year.

So, the stats seem to indicate not an injury issue, but more detailed analysis is probably needed to 100% conclude that, but so far very little or no evidence seems to suggest it's an injury risk, or much of one.

 

[State]

Drake Maye makes some elite throws. His protection is light years better than what Spencer Rattler experienced at USC. But a franchise QB?

In college Tom Brady almost single handed beat Alabama in the 2000 bowl game in New Orleans. A much better team than 2023 NC State.

Temper your Maye-orgasms, people. It’s going to be a long, at times painful journey.

 

[Pape]

Wait, so Maye is backing up Brissette? You only get 3 elevations to the roster before a player must be signed to the 53.

"emergency" qbs are not subject to the three game restriction this year... Basically it's a loop hole... Exploit it til they close it

Emergency QB can now come from practice squad

The emergency quarterback rule has gotten a much-needed boost.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Fuzz]

The Pats line ranked about where Houston did the year before they got Stroud(mid 20's), I expect the line will be better with real coaching the same way Houston got to around 18-20th best line. Was fine for him.

Bryce Young didn't get hurt, Sam Howell didn't get hurt, I think we are waaaaaay over playing the level of bad this line might possibly be and how often QB's get hurt because of that. Sure, the more you get hit the higher % chance of injury but it's not that much more, especially for a well-built, mobile QB.

David Carr was sacked 76 times and played all 16 games.
Peak Randall Cunningham ran over 100 times and sacked almost 50 and played all 16 games.
Cunnngham got hurt on the same play Brady got hurt on, hit low in the pockets on a throw, which is now illegal.

All The top 27 highest sacked QB's in a season played pretty much every game that year.

So, the stats seem to indicate not an injury issue, but more detailed analysis is probably needed to 100% conclude that, but so far very little or no evidence seems to suggest it's an injury risk, or much of one.

Great post. We are overstating how bad this line might be, and I think slightly overestimating the line in the dynasty years. In a couple of years, they actually had worse lines than they did last year but managed to remain competitive (of course, Brady had a lot to do with that).

These are all the PFF Rankings of the Patriots O-lines I could find over the years:
After 2023 Season (Record 4-13): Ranked 20
After 2022 Season (Record 8-9): Ranked 12
After 2021 Season (Record 10-7): Ranked 9
After 2020 Season (Record 7-9): Ranked 4
After 2019 Season (Record 12-4): Ranked 10
After 2018 Season (Record 11-5*): Ranked 4
After 2016 Season (Record 14-2*): Ranked 10
After 2015 Season (Record 12-4): Ranked 25
After 2014 Season (Record 12-4*): Ranked 23
After 2013 Season (Record 12-4): Ranked 14
After 2012 Season (Record 12-4): Ranked 2
After 2009 Season (Record 10-6): Ranked 3

*Won Superbowl

So, according to this, they've had 4 great O-lines, 5 good O-lines, and 3 bad O-lines (including last year), with a median rank of 10. Assuming they have better injury luck, better coaching and an NFL starter level player at LT (biggest unknown), they should be able to get back to the level of play they had as recently as 2022.

 

[KCSVEN]

Drake Maye makes some elite throws. His protection is light years better than what Spencer Rattler experienced at USC. But a franchise QB?

In college Tom Brady almost single handed beat Alabama in the 2000 bowl game in New Orleans. A much better team than 2023 NC State.

Temper your Maye-orgasms, people. It’s going to be a long, at times painful journey.

Not tempering crap.
First 8 plays:
Receiver fell down on 2 of them
He ran on 3rd down, also slipped on bad field, tried to truck 2 guys to get the extra yard for the 1st and fumbled, no fumble problem historically.
1 throw away as play was covered everywhere
1 throw away had 2 free rushers, side stepped the 1st, allowing time to throw ball away before second got there, great play.
1 throw was short as 1 of the 2 free rushers was chasing him as he was running left and had to throw across his body as the guy was bearing down, he's made that play before, would have been a great throw if he got it up, very few QB's even attempt that throw.
Next ball, had to throw to incut, got ball over the underneath linebacker, in front of the safety, slightly high due to getting it over the LB, catchable ball, hit both hands. Not even mentioning he had to throw it over the lineman (and did so by a few inches), pretty incredible throw to not get batted down and place it where he did. Let's also point out 2 of the 5 routes on 3rd and 12 are running about 5 yards so basically 3 receivers against 6 defenders and dropped it in there. Bad OC showing his face on almost every play BTW.
Leads receiver a little 2 much on a slant though hit receiver's hand. It is 3rd down, only guy open, maybe in-cut at top as a likely 3rd read but not really open, if he does not lead him zero chance of a 1st. Tough one to judge without talking to the receivers, looks like both receivers to that side did not execute the rub properly and receiver did not get the depth expected and Maye put it where it was supposed to go but rub was done poorly so receiver was cutting it short.
So, no completions, no positive plays but Maye is not playing poorly at all on 1 good leg.

So down 23-0

Next drive down 23-0 includes great pass to start drive and All-pro, phenomenal throw for TD to end drive.
Next drive, 55 yard run, then 2 plays later trucks 2 guys to get to 1 and plows thru LB next play for TD (Runs in 2 pt play called back penalty). Phenomenal drive!
Next Drive, NC State rushed 8 at 1 point, OC had called for 2 deep patterns and a 20 yard out, 3 free rushers, threw it away, next play 2-3 free rushers, phenomenal throw as being hit gets first down on 3rd and 10, amazing play! This was followed by his worst throw of the game though was pressured just overthrew his target. His bad on that 1. Next throw is elite NFL QB throw, between 2 defenders, low at the goal line, TE had 2 hands on ball, tough catch he drops, but perfect throw that's incomplete, NFL tight end, probably a touchdown, not many NFL QB's can make that throw, They still get a TD on this drive.
Next Drive ends in interception but probably 4 ridiculously awesome throws by Maye. Incredulous playmaking by him on that drive, . Started at own 9, intercepted at opponent 15 as receiver on slant lets CB reach around him and knock ball in air. Bad play by WR

Maye re-injures ankle to start next drive when sacked from behind, probably should have come out for last few plays as clearly couldn't push off that foot, led to a high throw and interception (But was off both hands of the receiver...again and should have been caught despite not accurate)

So why do you think this was a bad game by Maye? He had a few bad throws, a # of great throws, excellent decision making, good scrambling.

If you want the full low down I did not chart them all, but I found someone that did:
1 Elite, 4 great, 7 solid, 9 pedestrian, 7 bad: These are good #'s compared to other QB's FYI
Maye vs NC State: 75% accuracy, 63% accuracy+, 40% + play %
Average top drafted QB 2024: 70%, 45%, 27%

His BAD game vs NC State ranks as better than an average game from the other QB's in the class.

Michigan with Brady had 3 first round picks on the team and 5 of the first 43 picks, NC had Maye, and then 2 guys drafted on day 3.

 

[JohnJH]

It's interesting you mention Luck, because his is the cautionary tale the Patriots should take to heart. He was absolutely slaughtered in his first year, taking a lot of big hits. Brady was also sacked a lot early on, but I don't recall him taking many big hits like Luck. There were a lot of "no one's open, time to turtle" sacks. Luck was a special talent, gone in 6 years. I realize it wasn't only the sacks.

Luck is a cautionary tale on how NOT to handle a Franchise QB or one that you believe has to potential to be one (especially if they're as young age-wise as Maye is). Coach him up and take what you have on this years team for talent and see who is and isn't going to work out, then combine that with a solid 2025 FA period (we have the money and FA's will see that we have the QB and a hopefully competent coaching staff), and another successful draft which hopefully procures a stud LT and a solid RB and WR prospect (not to mention addressing area's of need on Defense). With that being done, Maye and the rest of the team can make some positive noise in 2025 (he'll have his ups and downs, but so long as he's improving, along with the young talent around him, he could be very special).

 

[Fuzz]

Not tempering crap.
First 8 plays:
Receiver fell down on 2 of them
He ran on 3rd down, also slipped on bad field, tried to truck 2 guys to get the extra yard for the 1st and fumbled, no fumble problem historically.
1 throw away as play was covered everywhere
1 throw away had 2 free rushers, side stepped the 1st, allowing time to throw ball away before second got there, great play.
1 throw was short as 1 of the 2 free rushers was chasing him as he was running left and had to throw across his body as the guy was bearing down, he's made that play before, would have been a great throw if he got it up, very few QB's even attempt that throw.
Next ball, had to throw to incut, got ball over the underneath linebacker, in front of the safety, slightly high due to getting it over the LB, catchable ball, hit both hands. Not even mentioning he had to throw it over the lineman (and did so by a few inches), pretty incredible throw to not get batted down and place it where he did. Let's also point out 2 of the 5 routes on 3rd and 12 are running about 5 yards so basically 3 receivers against 6 defenders and dropped it in there. Bad OC showing his face on almost every play BTW.
Leads receiver a little 2 much on a slant though hit receiver's hand. It is 3rd down, only guy open, maybe in-cut at top as a likely 3rd read but not really open, if he does not lead him zero chance of a 1st. Tough one to judge without talking to the receivers, looks like both receivers to that side did not execute the rub properly and receiver did not get the depth expected and Maye put it where it was supposed to go but rub was done poorly so receiver was cutting it short.
So, no completions, no positive plays but Maye is not playing poorly at all on 1 good leg.

So down 23-0

Next drive down 23-0 includes great pass to start drive and All-pro, phenomenal throw for TD to end drive.
Next drive, 55 yard run, then 2 plays later trucks 2 guys to get to 1 and plows thru LB next play for TD (Runs in 2 pt play called back penalty). Phenomenal drive!
Next Drive, NC State rushed 8 at 1 point, OC had called for 2 deep patterns and a 20 yard out, 3 free rushers, threw it away, next play 2-3 free rushers, phenomenal throw as being hit gets first down on 3rd and 10, amazing play! This was followed by his worst throw of the game though was pressured just overthrew his target. His bad on that 1. Next throw is elite NFL QB throw, between 2 defenders, low at the goal line, TE had 2 hands on ball, tough catch he drops, but perfect throw that's incomplete, NFL tight end, probably a touchdown, not many NFL QB's can make that throw, They still get a TD on this drive.
Next Drive ends in interception but probably 4 ridiculously awesome throws by Maye. Incredulous playmaking by him on that drive, . Started at own 9, intercepted at opponent 15 as receiver on slant lets CB reach around him and knock ball in air. Bad play by WR

Maye re-injures ankle to start next drive when sacked from behind, probably should have come out for last few plays as clearly couldn't push off that foot, led to a high throw and interception (But was off both hands of the receiver...again and should have been caught despite not accurate)

So why do you think this was a bad game by Maye? He had a few bad throws, a # of great throws, excellent decision making, good scrambling.

If you want the full low down I did not chart them all, but I found someone that did:
1 Elite, 4 great, 7 solid, 9 pedestrian, 7 bad: These are good #'s compared to other QB's FYI
Maye vs NC State: 75% accuracy, 63% accuracy+, 40% + play %
Average top drafted QB 2024: 70%, 45%, 27%

His BAD game vs NC State ranks as better than an average game from the other QB's in the class.

Michigan with Brady had 3 first round picks on the team and 5 of the first 43 picks, NC had Maye, and then 2 guys drafted on day 3.

I appreciate the effort you put into your posts. Always insightful.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Agree. And every QB is different with development. While one QB could start and not completely fail…another may benefit from sitting a year. I don’t think it’s a black or white thing…there is some gray there…every player is different. Regardless…sitting can never hurt but playing may…permanently.

Yep, I agree completely. And if the Patriots have invested in virtual reality the way some college programs have then that should expedite the learning curve. But they still have to make sure the OL is ready.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If the OL really improves, and Maye has shown a good grasp of the offense then I wouldn’t be against playing him in December, just so he gets a taste of the speed of the Pro game heading into the offseason.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

I'd keep 4 QB's. Start Brissett, and if he gets injured, play Zappe. I wouldn't play Maye this season and keep Milton as a #2 of the future (if they put him on the PS, they'll loose him).

I’m not that high on Milton that if he goes on practice squad we lose him.
If he shows something (I would be thrilled). Then he makes the 53 roster.
If not practice squad. Usually these type of players get poached later in the year. So they have a whole offseason with new team.
6 years in College. Still just throws a fastball. Seems like reading a coverage is like throwing a dart at a board.
There is a reason he lasted to the 6th round in a 4 round deep draft.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Keep 4.

Send the 3rd and 4th QBs to the practice squad. No one is signing Zappe or Milton... If either is signed away, so be it. No big deal. Milton is not going to play anyways. Just like with Cunningham, you won't even notice he's gone.

I have been saying this about Milton
Put him on the PS. If he gets poached which I doubt. See ya later
Look at Cunningham. Everyone was losing it when he got poached. Now he is going to play WR

 

[JohnJH]

I have been saying this about Milton
Put him on the PS. If he gets poached which I doubt. See ya later
Look at Cunningham. Everyone was losing it when he got poached. Now he is going to play WR

So, we wasted a 6th Round Draft pick then? That seems to be the consensus here by putting Milton on the PS. I'm not saying he's going to amount to anything, but it's too early to dump him on the PS. If they do, we did waste a Draft Pick. We would have been better off taking the best available RB (which is a position of need) or some other player that had upside at a position that could actually make the team.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Report: Brandon Aiyuk Looking To Top $28M Per Year Amon-Ra St. Brown Got From Lions

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported recently on "NFL Live" that 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk is looking to beat the $28 million per year Amon-Ra St. Brown got from the Lions in his new contract this offseason.

nfltraderumors.co

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