Getting Into Kraft's Thought Process - Some Thoughts

[mgteich]

We can't score points

My point was that we don't need to re-sign Dugger if we can a solid replacement who is a free safety.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Did you have a look at free agency?

No good players go to FA anymore.

Teams are doing a couple things: signing their QBs to massive contracts which eats up the cap (Patriots are obviously not doing that) or retaining their top players.

The Patriots' top players other than Judon are mostly all in their first contracts (Barmore, Rham, Dugger, Keion White, Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Onwenu).

There's no point in signing guys like McGlinchey who will eat up $87m of the salary cap for subpar performance, not when you have to pay a bunch of guys for their second contracts.

If we were bringing in Tee Higgins and Kirk Cousins, I would feel differently.

When a team doesn't have a QB and is filled with a bunch of young players, it's just not going to have a big spend.

These days, when you have a very good QB on their 1st contract, you're going to redo their deal in their 3rd year, to the tune of $50m per.

I expect the Patriots to sign their own young guys to huge deals this offseason, maybe one top WR like Higgins or Pittman, and then try to deal with our older vets like Henry, Peppers, and the like

Well for example they could have sprung for JHop - they offered him a contract but Arizona offered him a better one. He would have been our best WR and the season might have looked very different.

I saw a stat that the Patriots haven't signed a high pick (first few rounds) to a second contract in a decade. So it's been a strategic policy decision by us - some of these players have had successful careers elsewhere.

I do agree that part of the reason for our massive cap space over the next 3 years is not many signed players.

 

[upstater1]

Well for example they could have sprung for JHop - they offered him a contract but Arizona offered him a better one. He would have been our best WR and the season might have looked very different.

I saw a stat that the Patriots haven't signed a high pick (first few rounds) to a second contract in a decade. So it's been a strategic policy decision by us - some of these players have had successful careers elsewhere.

I do agree that part of the reason for our massive cap space over the next 3 years is not many signed players.

You mean DHop to the Titans? I've heard we made him a big offer; but remember he had a very bad experience with O'Brien at Houston. This is why Houston traded one of the best WRs in football at the time.

That stat about the Patriots not resigning high draft picks over a decade neglects the fact that new deals aren't done until the 5th or 6th year in the league. So if you're looking at the last 4 or 5 drafts, there's a reason no one resigned.

For instance, we're now looking to resign Onwenu, Dugger, Anfernee Jennings, and Uche, who were drafted 4 years ago. Next year is their 5th in the NFL.

It makes much more sense to look back at the eligible to be resigned, but that forces you to go back 4 years more in order to look at an entire decade.

2010: resigned McCourty, Gronkowski, Hernandez (didn't resign Cunningham, Price and Spikes)
2011: resigned Solder and Cannon (didn't resign Vereen, Ridley, Dowling & Mallet -- but we did get a legendary performance out of Vereen).
2012: resigned Hightower (didn't resign Chandler Jones [traded], Wilson and Bequette)
2013: resigned Logan Ryan and Harmon (didn't resign Boyce, Dobson and Jamie Collins [though we got Collins back after he was cut by the Browns])
2014: resigned James White (didn't resign Easley, Stork [injury retirement], Fleming, Garoppolo was traded for a 2nd).
2015: resigned Shaq Mason (didn't resign Trey Flowers [this one is odd, he played great for the Patriots, made a ton of $$ w/ Lions, now back with Patriots, I would not consider this a failed draft pick], Malcolm Brown, Richards, Grisson, Tre Jackson)
2016: (didn't resign Joe Thuney, Cyrus Jones, Valentine, Mitchell [injury retirement], then [traded] Brissett).
2017: resigned Wise (didn't resign Garcia and Rivers)
2018: resigned Bentley (didn't resign Wynn, Dawson, and we [traded Sony Michel])
2019: (didn't resign Harry, Williams, Damien Harris, Cajuste, Froholdt, Stidham, but we [traded Winovich for Mack Wilson, Jr.)

These are the 10 years prior to 2020 when Dugger, Uche, Anfernee Jennings and Onwenu were selected. All four are up in free agency this year.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

You mean DHop to the Titans? I've heard we made him a big offer; but remember he had a very bad experience with O'Brien at Houston. This is why Houston traded one of the best WRs in football at the time.

That stat about the Patriots not resigning high draft picks over a decade neglects the fact that new deals aren't done until the 5th or 6th year in the league. So if you're looking at the last 4 or 5 drafts, there's a reason no one resigned.

For instance, we're now looking to resign Onwenu, Dugger, Anfernee Jennings, and Uche, who were drafted 4 years ago. Next year is their 5th in the NFL.

It makes much more sense to look back at the eligible to be resigned, but that forces you to go back 4 years more in order to look at an entire decade.

2010: resigned McCourty, Gronkowski, Hernandez (didn't resign Cunningham, Price and Spikes)
2011: resigned Solder and Cannon (didn't resign Vereen, Ridley, Dowling & Mallet -- but we did get a legendary performance out of Vereen).
2012: resigned Hightower (didn't resign Chandler Jones [traded], Wilson and Bequette)
2013: resigned Logan Ryan and Harmon (didn't resign Boyce, Dobson and Jamie Collins [though we got Collins back after he was cut by the Browns])
2014: resigned James White (didn't resign Easley, Stork [injury retirement], Fleming, Garoppolo was traded for a 2nd).
2015: resigned Shaq Mason (didn't resign Trey Flowers [this one is odd, he played great for the Patriots, made a ton of $$ w/ Lions, now back with Patriots, I would not consider this a failed draft pick], Malcolm Brown, Richards, Grisson, Tre Jackson)
2016: (didn't resign Joe Thuney, Cyrus Jones, Valentine, Mitchell [injury retirement], then [traded] Brissett).
2017: resigned Wise (didn't resign Garcia and Rivers)
2018: resigned Bentley (didn't resign Wynn, Dawson, and we [traded Sony Michel])
2019: (didn't resign Harry, Williams, Damien Harris, Cajuste, Froholdt, Stidham, but we [traded Winovich for Mack Wilson, Jr.)

These are the 10 years prior to 2020 when Dugger, Uche, Anfernee Jennings and Onwenu were selected. All four are up in free agency this year.

I guess the only real regrets there are Flowers and Thuney. But Onwenu should have been resigned earlier - they are going to have to pay more now.

 

[upstater1]

I guess the only real regrets there are Flowers and Thuney. But Onwenu should have been resigned earlier - they are going to have to pay more now.

I've always said the big mistake was giving Mason money that should've gone to Thuney. Mason was an excellent run blocker, but he always had breakdowns in pass blocking. Thuney I guess is the opposite of that. Too tall and skinny to really plow people in the running game, but he's like an extra tackle at left guard. Great pass blocker.

The problem with extending Onwenu was the broken ankle he suffered at the end of last season.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

My point was that we don't need to re-sign Dugger if we can a solid replacement who is a free safety.

You can't let go of all your good players... You stay at the status quo. So dugger is another player who never sees 2nd contract from the pats. The pats need to stop being cheap

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The problem with extending Onwenu was the broken ankle he suffered at the end of last season.

Which is why he would have taken a discount on the next contract. Most players are risk averse.

 

[Thelonious]

Most of my career, I managed a group of about a dozen people: best group in the organization. The group worked well in large part because there were clear lines of authority, clear areas of responsibility (which actually matched the former as they alas often do not), and - where needed - a clear understanding of hierarchy. Such clarity is the way to minimize conflict among any group. In my mind, such a rigorously rational approach to such things is far more valuable that all the touchy-feely hug-it-out ******** so broadly applied these days.

This approach only works, of course, if you hire the right people, on merit and on nothing else.