Tankathon

[Ross12]

If you assume the Pats and Commanders both lose next week, these are the keys:

- Bears vs Packers: Commanders played the Bears - need the Bears to win
- Texans vs Colts: Patriots played the Colts - need the Texans to win
- Steelers vs Ravens: Patriots played the Steelers - need the Ravens to win
- Falcons vs Saints: Commanders played the Falcons, and Patriots played the Saints - need the Falcons to win
- Broncos vs Raiders: both teams played the Broncos, but only the Pats played the Raiders - need the Broncos to win

If all 5 of the above occur then NE finishes one game ahead of Washington in SOS - 149-140 vs 150-139 - for a SOS of 0.516 against 0.519.

If only 4 of the above occur then they'll tie in SOS, and NE will still finish ahead, as the next tiebreaker is head-to-head, which NE wins due to losing to Washington this year.

If 3 or fewer occur, Washington takes the higher pick.

 

[aluminum seats]

If you assume the Pats and Commanders both lose next week, these are the keys:

- Bears vs Packers: Commanders played the Bears - need the Bears to win
- Texans vs Colts: Patriots played the Colts - need the Texans to win
- Steelers vs Ravens: Patriots played the Steelers - need the Ravens to win
- Falcons vs Saints: Commanders played the Falcons, and Patriots played the Saints - need the Falcons to win
- Broncos vs Raiders: both teams played the Broncos, but only the Pats played the Raiders - need the Broncos to win

If all 5 of the above occur then NE finishes one game ahead of Washington in SOS - 149-140 vs 150-139 - for a SOS of 0.516 against 0.519.

If only 4 of the above occur then they'll tie in SOS, and NE will still finish ahead, as the next tiebreaker is head-to-head, which NE wins due to losing to Washington this year.

If 3 or fewer occur, Washington takes the higher pick.

Assuming this is correct, thanks for taking the time

 

[Fubby]

I feel very confident that Ryland is going to take us to the promised land next week

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I see @Ross12 has done this analysis too.

It appears that a single win raises a .515 SoS percentage about 2-3 points. If both we and WA lose next week, there's a chance we still move up to pick #3, as it would depend on how all our opponents and their opponents for the year perform next week.

If we beat the Jets and WA loses, which is likely, then we drop out of the 4-win club to the 5-win club. If the other 5-win teams all lose and we're in a 4 way tie with the Giants, Titans, and Chargers, it looks the Giants would sneak ahead of us but we'd stay ahead of the other two, meaning we'd pick 5th. Our pick will therefore be either 3, 4 or 5. Sucks that the Giants lost that winnable game today.

A simpler way of looking at it:
Washington's opponents [counting divisional teams twice] have 140 wins.
New England's have 141.
[Arizona's have 153.]

If both WAS and NE lose, then all of the divisional matches will cancel out. If Washington's non AFCE/NFCE opponents win more games than the Patriots' non-AFCE/NFCE opponents do, NE gets the #2 pick. Otherwise, they get #3.

If NE wins, the worst they can possibly do is #7.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

A simpler way of looking at it:
Washington's opponents [counting divisional teams twice] have 140 wins.
New England's have 141.
[Arizona's have 153.]

If both WAS and NE lose, then all of the divisional matches will cancel out. If Washington's non AFCE/NFCE opponents win more games than the Patriots' non-AFCE/NFCE opponents do, NE gets the #2 pick. Otherwise, they get #3.

If NE wins, the worst they can possibly do is #7.

If NE wins and becomes a 5 win team, then Ariz and the Giants come into play. Ariz would also need to win vs Seattle so they also end up with 5 wins. If not we pick behind Car/Chi, Wash, AZ, and the Giants assuming the Giants also lose next week vs Philly. We're in good shape vs the other 5 win teams, so the worst we pick should be 5th.

 

[Joey007]

I see @Ross12 has done this analysis too.

A simpler way of looking at it:
Washington's opponents [counting divisional teams twice] have 140 wins.
New England's have 141.
[Arizona's have 153.]

If both WAS and NE lose, then all of the divisional matches will cancel out. If Washington's non AFCE/NFCE opponents win more games than the Patriots' non-AFCE/NFCE opponents do, NE gets the #2 pick. Otherwise, they get #3.

If NE wins, the worst they can possibly do is #7.

So is #7 likely at all in that scenario? Chargers and Titans SOS’s seem to be a decent level above ours. Feels like we’d still likely land pick 5 at worst.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

If NE wins and becomes a 5 win team, then Ariz and the Giants come into play. Ariz would also need to win vs Seattle so they also end up with 5 wins. If not we pick behind Car/Chi, Wash, AZ, and the Giants assuming the Giants also lose next week. We're in good shape vs the other 5 win teams, so the worst we pick should be 5th.

We'll end up between 2 and 5 after losing today, I'd prefer 2 or 3 but it is the Jets.

 

[Joey007]

Is it also still possible to land the #3 pick, despite winning next weekend? With wins by the Cardinals and Giants, that would probably do it. I could see either winning.

We'll end up between 2 and 5 after losing today, I'd prefer 2 or 3 but it is the Jets.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

More on this: there's a post on Reddit that suggests things are a bit more complex.

I will have to do the math to double check this, but it appears that there are 12 out of 32 possible outcomes that give NE the #2 pick, but almost all of them depend on the Falcons beating the Saints.

If the Falcons beat the Saints, then the Patriots need any two of the remaining games to go their way.
If the Saints win, the Patriots need all of the remaining games to go their way.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

So is #7 likely at all in that scenario? Chargers and Titans SOS’s seem to be a decent level above ours. Feels like we’d still likely land pick 5 at worst.

It's a 3 win difference for TEN (they have 144, NE has 141). I haven't done the math to see how likely it is that difference evaporates.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

More on this: there's a post on Reddit that suggests things are a bit more complex.

I will have to do the math to double check this, but it appears that there are 12 out of 32 possible outcomes that give NE the #2 pick, but almost all of them depend on the Falcons beating the Saints.

If the Falcons beat the Saints, then the Patriots need any two of the remaining games to go their way.
If the Saints win, the Patriots need all of the remaining games to go their way.

Or they could just lose and at least get the 3rd pick.

 

[TheRainMaker]

We need to root for the Commanders, Bears and Cardinals to win next week because the Pats are going to take care of the Jets.

 

[Ross12]

More on this: there's a post on Reddit that suggests things are a bit more complex.

I will have to do the math to double check this, but it appears that there are 12 out of 32 possible outcomes that give NE the #2 pick, but almost all of them depend on the Falcons beating the Saints.

If the Falcons beat the Saints, then the Patriots need any two of the remaining games to go their way.
If the Saints win, the Patriots need all of the remaining games to go their way.

Yeah good call out. Looks like the first critical cornerstone is the Falcons-Saints game, and then secondary to that with lesser but still relatively high importance is the Broncos-Raiders game since both teams have played Denver but only the Pats have played Vegas.

Here is the section of the sheet from Reddit which gives you all of the “scenarios” which result in NE getting the 2nd pick, assuming they and WSH both lose this weekend:

 

[venecol]

Assuming this is correct, thanks for taking the time

 

[*ChungFu*]

That the formula for SOS is so complicated and nuanced tells me the league will place whoever the hell they want wherever they want them. Dean Blandino will provide the reasoning.

 

[festy1986]

Now's a great time to lose to the Jets and have it actually be a win.

Make it happen.

I'm hoping patriot players opt out, Bill does the right thing and we can all go into the off-season with some hope.

I want a QB but I'll take Harrison as a consolation prize.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah good call out. Looks like the first critical cornerstone is the Falcons-Saints game, and then secondary to that with lesser but still relatively high importance is the Broncos-Raiders game since both teams have played Denver but only the Pats have played Vegas.

Here is the section of the sheet from Reddit which gives you all of the “scenarios” which result in NE getting the 2nd pick, assuming they and WSH both lose this weekend:

It turns out Broncos/Raiders doesn't hold special weight (other than Falcons, every other team that favors NE appears the same number of times).

Again, I'm not 100% sure which one is correct (I don't feel like doing the math right now), just noting the discrepancy.

 

[venecol]

This is what we'll miss out on with a win.

 

[PaulNEPats]

I think they sucked enough to land a top 3 qb but if next week goes to hell, I’d love to see Bowers in a Pats uniform.

 

[PaulThePat]

I'm not convinced the Bears take a QB. Heck, they might even be up for trading down. All things possible once the season is finished, senior bowls, combines etc etc