Tankathon

[TommyD4207]

Geez - I didn't even think that the Bengals could possibly win this game...

Up 4 and driving again, halfway through the 3rd just about.

 

[The Gr8est]

So if the Steelers and Bengals both win (both currently leading), it's 139-131 a piece, right?

I thought we would benefit more if Seattle won.

No?

 

[Love The Drake]

I thought we would benefit more if Seattle won.

No?

I thought the same.
Really confused.

 

[sambam94]

I thought we would benefit more if Seattle won.

No?

I thought we would benefit more if Seattle won.

No?

correct, for SOS root for Sea, Den, Cinn...KC will screw us

 

[farn]

Prob better off watching on mute. Mahomes throws the ball in the ground back to back : it’s never his fault.

 

[TommyD4207]

I thought we would benefit more if Seattle won.

No?

It would, then Washington would be 139-131, and the Patriots would be 138-132.

 

[Ian]

Just an FYI @venecol, @ctpatsfan77 , and @Ross12 I've just added OPP PCT to the standings, so that people have access to that number. You can mouseover it and it shows you the full decimal:

2025 NFL Standings

2025 NFL Standings including Home / Away Records along with Division / Conference Records.

www.patsfans.com

2023 NFL Conference Standings

2023 NFL Conference Standings including Home / Away Records along with Division / Conference Records.

www.patsfans.com

2023 NFL League Standings

2023 NFL Full League Standings including Home / Away Records along with Division / Conference Records.

www.patsfans.com

I'm still working on the draft order page, but given the discussion here it's a metric that I felt was relevant enough to add to it.

 

[Ian]

This just updated again at the completion of the Seattle, Pittsburgh game. Patriots still sit at #3

 

[BHPatriot]

This just updated again at the completion of the Seattle, Pittsburgh game. Patriots still sit at #3

And Cinci is about to lose so we went 0-2. Killer.

 

[festy1986]

Dallas and niners win next week so it don't matter.

We lose we are 2

 

[ctpatsfan77]

No, @venecol , @Ross12 and @ctpatsfan77 are right - I had to extend the decimal places, which is the current factor. What throws things off is that division opponents are projected and counted twice until the second meetings are played, which @Ross12 and I figured out previously based on how Tankathon tracks it.

And the league lists the conference records as a tie-breaker, but it is based on their own conferences, etc. So in the case, it would then come down to head-to-head, common opponents, etc.

I'm fairly sure I've posted that here somewhere. (Divisional opponents count twice, period.)

 

[sambam94]

lose next week, pick #3 or #2. Win and most likely drop to #5 or #6.

 

[Ian]

I'm fairly sure I've posted that here somewhere. (Divisional opponents count twice, period.)

I think you did, and Ross and I figured out the math on the Divisional opponents total, which was interesting. Funny that for 20-years, I never really delved too deep into this, so it's been sort of interesting to try and piece it all together.

 

[festy1986]

If division counts twice, then Washington is adding 5 extra wins to their schedule compared to us with the difference in Jets and Dallas.

That's quite a bit to make up in one day.

Lose and were pick 2.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If division counts twice, then Washington is adding 5 extra wins to their schedule compared to us with the difference in Jets and Dallas.

That's quite a bit to make up in one day.

Lose and were pick 2.

Those are already counted in the Tankathon numbers, sorry.

 

[Ross12]

Those are already counted in the Tankathon numbers, sorry.

They actually aren’t.

I did the math on this. While tankathon SAYS they pre-count all future opponents, they actually don’t. They’re only counting games played so far. You can run the numbers yourself. The percentage tweet they posted earlier about NE vs WSH SOS matched exactly the figure that you would come up with if you excluded all unplayed games from your calculations.

Edit: Actually, I dug deeper into this and it looks like they do project games for division opponents as a double-count, so I am partially offbase here.

 

[thecore762]

If Fields has another solid game then I can see the following:

1. Bears take MHJr
2. Commanders take Fields
3. Pats take Maye
4. Cardinals take Jayden Daniels

 

[40yrpatsfan]

But...
Washington & NE are tied at 4-12 with a .515 strength of schedule.
Washington plays Dallas.
NE plays Jets.
If both lose, Washington lost to a 12-win team and NE lost to a 7-win team.
Would that tweak the strength of schedule slightly in NE's favor?
If so, a loss to the Jets could reinstall NE at #2.

I don't believe that's how it works. All of WA's opponents wins & losses (x2 for division opponents) are totaled to give a SoS percentage such as .515. So if they lose to Dallas, who they played twice, their opponents win total increases by 2 and the percentage recalculated accordingly. If we also lose to the Jets, our opponents win total also increases by 2. So nothing would change in terms of SoS percentage due to those games, but our other opponents and their other opponents are also playing so those games also affect the calculation.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

They actually aren’t.

I did the math on this. While tankathon SAYS they pre-count all future opponents, they actually don’t. They’re only counting games played so far. You can run the numbers yourself. The percentage tweet they posted earlier about NE vs WSH SOS matched exactly the figure that you would come up with if you excluded all unplayed games from your calculations.

Edit: Actually, I dug deeper into this and it looks like they do project games for division opponents as a double-count, so I am partially offbase here.

correct. Say all your 14 opponents each end up with a record of 9-8, then there would be 17 occurrences of 9-8 in the calculation (division opponents counted twice apiece).

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It appears that a single win raises a .515 SoS percentage about 2-3 points. If both we and WA lose next week, there's a chance we still move up to pick #2, as it would depend on how all our opponents and their opponents for the year perform next week.

If we beat the Jets and WA loses, which is likely, then we drop out of the 4-win club to the 5-win club. If the other 5-win teams all lose and we're in a 4 way tie with the Giants, Titans, and Chargers, it looks the Giants would sneak ahead of us but we'd stay ahead of the other two, meaning we'd pick 5th. Our pick will therefore be either 2, 3, 4 or 5. Sucks that the Giants lost that winnable game today. A ray of hope is that AZ plays Seattle at home, and if they beat the Hawks then they're a 5 win team as well, and we'd pick ahead of them. We'd remain at 3rd.