My mind was changed today…

[PatsFan2]

Below are most of the QB's taken in the last 10 drafts. The question is whether to always pick a QB when you have a top-3 pick.
- I count 14 of the picks as excellent: Goff (1st), Prescott (135th), Mahomes (10th), Watson (12th), Allen (7th), Jackson (32nd), Murray (1st), Burrow (1st), Tua (5th), Herbert (6th), Hurts (53th), Lawrence (1st), Purdy (262nd), Stroud (2nd). Recap: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12, 32, 53, 135, 262 (six from picks 1-5, four from picks 6 to 12, four from picks 32 to 262)
- I count 11 more as solid starters: JimmyG (62), Carr (36), Mayfield (1), D Jones (6), Minshew (178), Love (26), Fields (11), Howell (144), Young (1), Richardson (4), Levis (33). Recap: 1, 1, 4, 6, 11, 26, 33, 36, 62, 144, 178 (for from picks 1-6, four from 11 to 36, three from 62 to 178)
Also, in 3 of the past 10 drafts there were no good QB's near the top: 2014, 2015, 2022 (and 2016 only had Goff).

Dam it's a Hit or Miss with the QB early on well IF we get he next Drew Bledsoe I could live with that.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Will the patriots stop being cheap?

 

[palialka]

Couldn’t disagree more. Just because they use their top pick on a QB that doesn’t mean they can’t sit them for a season while they upgrade their OL. They can still sacrifice a veteran until that happens. This is their best shot at getting the best QB on their draft board. If they don’t take it then I’m done watching them until they have their answer at QB. I’m not going to keep watching this garbage if they don’t give enough of a **** to address the most important position on the team.

Dude chill…I’m not saying we shouldn’t address the QB problem; obviously we need to do that.

The point I’m making is that there’s more than one way to rebuild our offense. It needs an almost total overhaul.

Sorry to disappoint you, but the odds of us getting everything fixed by the start of next season is slim to none. This process, if done correctly and not gunning for quick fixes, is going to take at least a couple of years.

If the Pats really believe that one of Williams, Maye or Daniels is a can’t miss, franchise guy…then yeah we should take him. But understand that he’s gonna suffer along the lines of Mac/Zappe until we fix the OL and add WR talent. How the Pats do that in terms of GM/coaching changes, the draft and FA is still up in the air based on how the new organizational approach will be. We may need to wait another year for that next QB…

You talking about quitting on the team as a fan if we don’t have an immediate fix is kind of crazy. Maybe you’ve only been a fan of this team since the 2000s…I don’t know.

Have patience man…Rome wasn’t built in a day

 

[PatsFan2]

Dude chill…I’m not saying we shouldn’t address the QB problem; obviously we need to do that.

The point I’m making is that there’s more than one way to rebuild our offense. It needs an almost total overhaul.

Sorry to disappoint you, but the odds of us getting everything fixed by the start of next season is slim to none. This process, if done correctly and not gunning for quick fixes, is going to take at least a couple of years.

If the Pats really believe that one of Williams, Maye or Daniels is a can’t miss, franchise guy…then yeah we should take him. But understand that he’s gonna suffer along the lines of Mac/Zappe until we fix the OL and add WR talent. How the Pats do that in terms of GM/coaching changes, the draft and FA is still up in the air based on how the new organizational approach will be. We may need to wait another year for that next QB…

You talking about quitting on the team as a fan if we don’t have an immediate fix is kind of crazy. Maybe you’ve only been a fan of this team since the 2000s…I don’t know.

Have patience man…Rome wasn’t built in a day

All can use their legs and put pressure on the Defense a far cry from what we have. Yeah I want a QB.

 

[palialka]

Nah, I want to contend in 2024.

This team might be 3-11, but they are 2-7 in one score games this year... a few slight tweaks here and there...and this team is a 6-8 team with no QB play, IMO.

Barring a miracle, we’re not contending in 2024. We have massive holes to fill all over the offense that’s likely going to take at least 2 seasons to get it right.

Not to mention that we need to hire a GM and HC…or at least we should. They’re not going to be in a prime position to fix everything in year 1 of an organizational/team rebuild.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Barring a miracle, we’re not contending in 2024. We have massive holes to fill all over the offense that’s likely going to take at least 2 seasons to get it right.

Not to mention that we need to hire a GM and HC…or at least we should. They’re not going to be in a prime position to fix everything in year 1 of an organizational/team rebuild.

More than likely but I can also see a scenario where we are contending for a wild card spot due to how mediocre the AFC is as a whole.

 

[palialka]

More than likely but I can also see a scenario where we are contending for a wild card spot due to how mediocre the AFC is as a whole.

I’d be happy seeing steady, progressive improvement.

What I don’t want is quick fix, flash in the pan signings that bomb or only work for one year and then we’re back at square one again.

If we do this right, we’ll be back in contention again in a couple of years because of what you said…the AFC is all around mediocre. There’s no team that stands out. Really the whole league is like that with maybe the exception SF.

 

[KCSVEN]

More than likely but I can also see a scenario where we are contending for a wild card spot due to how mediocre the AFC is as a whole.

Agree, Texans were 30th in offense last year and now 15th and would be slightly higher without the Dell and Stroud injuries bringing the stats down the last 2 games.
The odds of going from a bottom of the league offense to a top 5 in 1 year are very slim but going from bottom to league average is doable and with good defense you are in the wild card hunt.
Patriots could be middle of the road offense next year, but all starts with getting the right QB.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Agree, Texans were 30th in offense last year and now 15th and would be slightly higher without the Dell and Stroud injuries bringing the stats down the last 2 games.
The odds of going from a bottom of the league offense to a top 5 in 1 year are very slim but going from bottom to league average is doable and with good defense you are in the wild card hunt.
Patriots could be middle of the road offense next year, but all starts with getting the right QB.

A new QB doesn't have to do everything himself. Simply allowing the running game to do its job would bring the team to middle ground. This year Mac gave the opposite team so many points, at the worst time, that the run part of the offensive game plan was out the window in the first half of many games.

 

[NormZauchin]

Dude chill…I’m not saying we shouldn’t address the QB problem; obviously we need to do that.

The point I’m making is that there’s more than one way to rebuild our offense. It needs an almost total overhaul.

Sorry to disappoint you, but the odds of us getting everything fixed by the start of next season is slim to none. This process, if done correctly and not gunning for quick fixes, is going to take at least a couple of years.

If the Pats really believe that one of Williams, Maye or Daniels is a can’t miss, franchise guy…then yeah we should take him. But understand that he’s gonna suffer along the lines of Mac/Zappe until we fix the OL and add WR talent. How the Pats do that in terms of GM/coaching changes, the draft and FA is still up in the air based on how the new organizational approach will be. We may need to wait another year for that next QB…

You talking about quitting on the team as a fan if we don’t have an immediate fix is kind of crazy. Maybe you’ve only been a fan of this team since the 2000s…I don’t know.

Have patience man…Rome wasn’t built in a day

If the Pats believe any of the top quarterbacks are "can't miss" it's a sign that their draft philosophy is faulty. There is no such thing as a "can't miss" pick, only choices that have higher probabilities of success. Several posters on this site have presented data showing how for some positions it is harder to assess the chance that a good college player will succeed. It doesn't mean that New England should not go for a QB with its first pick, but it should be made without any delusions.

 

[203Pat]

The Browns took a hall of fame LT and how much did they win while he was there? It's all about the QB.

 

[Kdo5]

Swing a trade for an OL, use draft picks to trade up, use all that FA money. We have avenues to find a more than competent offensive line without spending a top 3 pick for one lineman.

Everything else on offense is useless until we have a legitimate QB option. If that QB needs to sit and let a guy like Zappe get clobbered for a season or part of it while we build the rest of the operation, so be it. That would probably be for the best anyhow.

 

[palialka]

The Browns took a hall of fame LT and how much did they win while he was there? It's all about the QB.

On the flip side…there’s only been one QB in the last 20 years drafted in the top 3 who has won a superbowl with the team which drafted him…just one! Payton Manning.

It’s always a crap shoot no matter who you draft, regardless of position.

 

[palialka]

If the Pats believe any of the top quarterbacks are "can't miss" it's a sign that their draft philosophy is faulty. There is no such thing as a "can't miss" pick, only choices that have higher probabilities of success. Several posters on this site have presented data showing how for some positions it is harder to assess the chance that a good college player will succeed. It doesn't mean that New England should not go for a QB with its first pick, but it should be made without any delusions.

Obviously the draft is a guessing game. There are no guarantees.

But if a team is drafting a guy, at any position, in the top 3 of the draft; you better believe they have that guy rated as a can’t miss guy. Now we all know a draft rating and reality are two different things, but if you’re taking a guy in the top 3, you’re totally expecting him to be an immediate difference maker except in extremely rare circumstances.

 

[203Pat]

On the flip side…there’s only been one QB in the last 20 years drafted in the top 3 who has won a superbowl with the team which drafted him…just one! Payton Manning.

It’s always a crap shoot no matter who you draft, regardless of position.

Why do people randomly cherry pick an arbitrary number like 3? If you want a good QB the overwhelming odds are you need to get him in the first round.

Burrow has been to a super bowl.
Mahomes has won 2 and been to 3.
Jared Goff has been to a super bowl.
Wentz you can give half credit has he was an MVP candidate on a Super Bowl winning team.
Cam Newton went to a super bowl
Matt Stafford won a super bowl
Matt Ryan went to a super bowl
Joe Flacco won a super bowl
Aaron Rodgers won a super bowl
Eli Manning won 2 super bowls
Ben Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls and went to 3

That is 9 Super Bowl wins (not including Wentz) and 15 appearances in the last 20 drafts for first round quarterbacks. If you remove the greatest player of all time with 10 appearances and 7 wins that leaves you with a partial credit to Nick Foles, Russel Wilson, and Drew Brees (who was pick 32 but technically not a first rounder). So outside of Brady that is 2.5 Super Bowl rings for non-first round quarterbacks in the last 20 years.

Too many Patriots fans have this romanticized delusion that we will luck into another generational QB in the late rounds who will lead us to multiple Super Bowl wins. The odds are highly against that.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Deleted
Response to wrong message

 

[palialka]

Why do people randomly cherry pick an arbitrary number like 3? If you want a good QB the overwhelming odds are you need to get him in the first round.

Burrow has been to a super bowl.
Mahomes has won 2 and been to 3.
Jared Goff has been to a super bowl.
Wentz you can give half credit has he was an MVP candidate on a Super Bowl winning team.
Cam Newton went to a super bowl
Matt Stafford won a super bowl
Matt Ryan went to a super bowl
Joe Flacco won a super bowl
Aaron Rodgers won a super bowl
Eli Manning won 2 super bowls
Ben Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls and went to 3

That is 9 Super Bowl wins (not including Wentz) and 15 appearances in the last 20 drafts for first round quarterbacks. If you remove the greatest player of all time with 10 appearances and 7 wins that leaves you with a partial credit to Nick Foles, Russel Wilson, and Drew Brees (who was pick 32 but technically not a first rounder). So outside of Brady that is 2.5 Super Bowl rings for non-first round quarterbacks in the last 20 years.

Too many Patriots fans have this romanticized delusion that we will luck into another generational QB in the late rounds who will lead us to multiple Super Bowl wins. The odds are highly against that.

I didn’t randomly cherry pick anything. I said top 3 because that’s the range I suspect t we’ll be drafting in.

There are lots of 1st round QBs that have won or participated in SBs recently, just not so many winners in the top 3.

That was my point…using this notion that drafting a QB in the top 3 picks as some formula for winning a SB is a horrible measuring tool. It doesn’t add up; you just have to look at the last 20 years.

We need a lot more than just a QB to get back to where we want to be on top.

 

[PatsFan2]

Why do people randomly cherry pick an arbitrary number like 3? If you want a good QB the overwhelming odds are you need to get him in the first round.

Burrow has been to a super bowl.
Mahomes has won 2 and been to 3.
Jared Goff has been to a super bowl.
Wentz you can give half credit has he was an MVP candidate on a Super Bowl winning team.
Cam Newton went to a super bowl
Matt Stafford won a super bowl
Matt Ryan went to a super bowl
Joe Flacco won a super bowl
Aaron Rodgers won a super bowl
Eli Manning won 2 super bowls
Ben Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls and went to 3

That is 9 Super Bowl wins (not including Wentz) and 15 appearances in the last 20 drafts for first round quarterbacks. If you remove the greatest player of all time with 10 appearances and 7 wins that leaves you with a partial credit to Nick Foles, Russel Wilson, and Drew Brees (who was pick 32 but technically not a first rounder). So outside of Brady that is 2.5 Super Bowl rings for non-first round quarterbacks in the last 20 years.

Too many Patriots fans have this romanticized delusion that we will luck into another generational QB in the late rounds who will lead us to multiple Super Bowl wins. The odds are highly against that.

We should all play the powerball.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Why do people randomly cherry pick an arbitrary number like 3? If you want a good QB the overwhelming odds are you need to get him in the first round.

Burrow has been to a super bowl.
Mahomes has won 2 and been to 3.
Jared Goff has been to a super bowl.
Wentz you can give half credit has he was an MVP candidate on a Super Bowl winning team.
Cam Newton went to a super bowl
Matt Stafford won a super bowl
Matt Ryan went to a super bowl
Joe Flacco won a super bowl
Aaron Rodgers won a super bowl
Eli Manning won 2 super bowls
Ben Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls and went to 3

That is 9 Super Bowl wins (not including Wentz) and 15 appearances in the last 20 drafts for first round quarterbacks. If you remove the greatest player of all time with 10 appearances and 7 wins that leaves you with a partial credit to Nick Foles, Russel Wilson, and Drew Brees (who was pick 32 but technically not a first rounder). So outside of Brady that is 2.5 Super Bowl rings for non-first round quarterbacks in the last 20 years.

Too many Patriots fans have this romanticized delusion that we will luck into another generational QB in the late rounds who will lead us to multiple Super Bowl wins. The odds are highly against that.

If we finish with a top 3 choice, the focus isn't on whether we need to get a QB in the 1st round, but whether we need to draft one in the top 5 or top 10, vs trading down or picking a WR or OL.

Looking at the past 10 drafts for who's panned out very well (not necessarily SB winners), there were 14 very good QB's. Six were picked 1-5, four were picked 6 to 12, and four were picked 32 to 262. The odds look higher that a 1-5 QB will turn out to be very good, until you consider that at least 10 QB's picked in the top 10 have not panned out very well, and the four picked after 31 include some of the very best: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy (+ Russell Wilson in the 70's).

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I didn’t randomly cherry pick anything. I said top 3 because that’s the range I suspect t we’ll be drafting in.

There are lots of 1st round QBs that have won or participated in SBs recently, just not so many winners in the top 3.

That was my point…using this notion that drafting a QB in the top 3 picks as some formula for winning a SB is a horrible measuring tool. It doesn’t add up; you just have to look at the last 20 years.

We need a lot more than just a QB to get back to where we want to be on top.

So, are you in favor of trading the top pick we gets for more picks?