Trade Back or Straight QB Pick

[lancerman]

10 of those are Peyton Manning. I'm guessing the rest are a mix of Rodgers and Mahomes with one time guys like Wentz and Josh Allen.

Rodgers, Mahomes, Lamar, Newton Ryan, Allen, Palmer, McNair.

The 2nd rounders are basically Brees, Favre, and Hurts last year.

All the 6th rounders are Brady.

A

 

[VrabelJr]

Rodgers, Mahomes, Lamar, Newton Ryan, Allen, Palmer, McNair.

The 2nd rounders are basically Brees, Favre, and Hurts last year.

All the 6th rounders are Brady.

A

That's about what I figured. Given how many Manning (10), Rodgers(5), and Mahomes (3) account for a more fair assessment is 10 QBs drafted in the first round have been All Pros since 2001.

 

[condon84]

You are using data selectively.

Since 2001, the first and second team all pro QB's

23 of those went to first round QB's.
10 were second round.
1 was in the third round.
1 was in the 4th round.
6 were in the 6th round (guess who)
2 were undradted.

That's 43 QB's that got that accolade. 53% or a clear majority were first rounders. The next best is still only 23%. The third and fourth round respectively each are only at 2%. The third highest round is all the same guy.

No you are using the data selectively.

Of those 23 All Pro selections, 10 came from Peyton, 5 from Rodgers, 3 from Maholmes, 1 from Matt Ryan, 1 from Newton.

That's 5 players. There's been 63 QBs selected in the first round. Try again.

Like I mentioned, only 5.3% of first round QBs chosen are likely to become an All Pro.

 

[lancerman]

No you are using the data selectively.

Of those 23 All Pro selections, 10 came from Peyton, 5 from Rodgers, 3 from Maholmes, 1 from Matt Ryan, 1 from Newton.

That's 5 players. There's been 63 QBs selected in the first round. Try again.

Okay.

Even if you just go by the player.

1st round: Peyton, Rodgers, Mahomes, McNair, Newton, Ryan, Palmer, Jackson.
2nd round: Brees Favre, Hurts
3rd round: Wilson
4th round: Gannon
5th round: nobody
6th round: Brady
7th round: nobody
undrafted: Warner, Romo.

The ratio still breaks down pretty much the same way. So 8 of 16 are first rounders. So you went from 53% to 50%. WHOA!!! Giant difference there.

 

[condon84]

Okay.

Even if you just go by the player.

1st round: Peyton, Rodgers, Mahomes, McNair, Newton, Ryan, Palmer, Jackson.
2nd round: Brees Favre, Hurts
3rd round: Wilson
4th round: Gannon
5th round: nobody
6th round: Brady
7th round: nobody
undrafted: Warner, Romo.

The ratio still breaks down pretty much the same way. So 8 of 16 are first rounders. So you went from 53% to 50%. WHOA!!!

Brother, 63 QBs have been chosen in the first round since 2001. Only 5 players have made All Pro.

 

[lancerman]

Brother, 63 QBs have been chosen in the first round since 2001. Only 5 players have made All Pro.

Doesn't matter. You used All Pros as your metric. You are dramatically more likely to get an All Pro QB in the first round than any other round.

You dramatically more likely to get a QB that wins or appears in a Super Bowl in the first round.

You are dramatically more likely to get a franchise QB in the first round.

No matter how you do it, the first round overhwelmingly has the highest success rate for teams when they pick a QB. Like it's not even close.

You are arguing that we should be picking a QB somewhere with far less of a success rate out of pure fear of missing.

 

[*ChungFu*]

I like Daniels and if he declares, Beck
Would rather a top OT be taken instead of WR though.
The Johnny Manzeil vibe with Williams is strong.

 

[condon84]

Doesn't matter. You used All Pros as your metric. You are dramatically more likely to get an All Pro QB in the first round than any other round.

You dramatically more likely to get a QB that wins or appears in a Super Bowl in the first round.

You are dramatically more likely to get a franchise QB in the first round.

No matter how you do it, the first round overhwelmingly has the highest success rate for teams when they pick a QB. Like it's not even close.

I used All Pro as a metric of success comparing QBs to other positions.

With QB having the lowest rate at 5%. It's significantly lower compared to other positions. This was my argument to support BPA.

We are more likely to draft a bust at QB in the first round than any other positions besides LB.

 

[lancerman]

I used All Pro as a metric of success comparing QBs to other positions.

With QB having the lowest rate at 5%. It's significantly lower compared to other positions. This was my argument to support BPA.

We are more likely to draft a bust at QB in the first round than any other positions besides LB.

No ****. That doesn't prove you shouldn't pick a QB in the first round. It proves that it's a hard position to draft regardless. The 1st round is still always going to be your best show to get a QB.

The alternative is draft a QB in a round where you are more than half as unlikely to hit on QB

 

[203Pat]

Anyone entertaining a trade back in nuts. We have seen what it is like with no QB. We need an elite QB.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Anyone entertaining a trade back in nuts. We have seen what it is like with no QB. We need an elite QB.

a small trade back, staying within the top 10. We need to multiply this top pick.

 

[lancerman]

a small trade back, staying within the top 10. We need to multiply this top pick.

No we don't. We need to take the absolute best shot at the most important position.

 

[203Pat]

a small trade back, staying within the top 10. We need to multiply this top pick.

No we don't. We need to take the absolute best shot at the most important position.

 

[Uptown]

You take Williams or Maye & don’t think twice about it. We currently have a TOP 2 PICK…

 

[archstanton543]

You take Williams or Maye & don’t think twice about it. We currently have a TOP 2 PICK…

People are acting like the #2 pick comes along all the time. Just take one of the two best QB's. Don't overthink it.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't know. He's 35. What does he have, 3-4 years?

Wouldn’t that be a stop gap for any team?

 

[Ring 6]

People are acting like the #2 pick comes along all the time. Just take one of the two best QB's. Don't overthink it.

There have been plenty of top 2 QBs who failed miserably.

 

[archstanton543]

There have been plenty of top 2 QBs who failed miserably.

And plenty who have had success. I don't get this argument.

 

[Ring 6]

And plenty who have had success. I don't get this argument.

What argument are you referring to?

 

[Callmecrazy]

You take Marvin Harrison Jr. He is the only sure thing. Get a Veteran free agent QB and draft Dion's kid Shedeur Sanders in 2nd if available.