Trade Back or Straight QB Pick

[40yrpatsfan]

I will readily admit that I am not a college football guru. But from what these amateur eyeballs witnessed with his play this season in losses to Notre Dame, Utah, Oregona and UCLA I was still impressed - but not to the point where I would feel comfortable that he is worthy of being a number one overall pick.

What has NFL teams concerned about Caleb Williams? | Inside Coverage

Once the overwhelming favorite to the number one overall pick in next April’s NFL draft, the USC quarterback and defending Heisman Trophy winner has begun to earn some doubters. Yahoo Sports’ Jason Fitz and senior NFL reporter Charles Robinson discuss the talk that has been circulating among...

sports.yahoo.com

I don't think it's the automatic hammerlock that it felt like before the season. And what you're hearing more about Caleb Williams now that is concerning teams is how much he is operating in sort of an unscripted manner on offense. He's running around. His feet aren't always set the way that they should be. There's a Johnny Manziel-esque quality to it when he was at A&M, where Johnny, a lot of the time it looked like the offense was just Johnny trying to make a play, make something big happen.​

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I think teams are starting to see some of that with Caleb Williams, especially in this last season, and they're going to nitpick at that. They're going to say, we need you to-- that's great that you can make plays. That's awesome. We love that quality. But we also need to know that you can sit inside a structured offense and go through your reads and just play quarterback. Right? Play quarterback, don't play playmaker.​

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Then with Drake Maye, I think it's the opposite. Like, he can do that, and he has shown the ability to do that and do the off-script stuff. But he very much is playing traditional quarterback.​

I've seen Drake Maye compared to Justin Herbert - similar size and athletic profile, similar arms. And Caleb Williams is a bigger Kyler Murray.

 

[Steve102]

I will readily admit that I am not a college football guru. But from what these amateur eyeballs witnessed with his play this season in losses to Notre Dame, Utah, Oregona and UCLA I was still impressed - but not to the point where I would feel comfortable that he is worthy of being a number one overall pick.

What has NFL teams concerned about Caleb Williams? | Inside Coverage

Once the overwhelming favorite to the number one overall pick in next April’s NFL draft, the USC quarterback and defending Heisman Trophy winner has begun to earn some doubters. Yahoo Sports’ Jason Fitz and senior NFL reporter Charles Robinson discuss the talk that has been circulating among...

sports.yahoo.com

I don't think it's the automatic hammerlock that it felt like before the season. And what you're hearing more about Caleb Williams now that is concerning teams is how much he is operating in sort of an unscripted manner on offense. He's running around. His feet aren't always set the way that they should be. There's a Johnny Manziel-esque quality to it when he was at A&M, where Johnny, a lot of the time it looked like the offense was just Johnny trying to make a play, make something big happen.​

​

I think teams are starting to see some of that with Caleb Williams, especially in this last season, and they're going to nitpick at that. They're going to say, we need you to-- that's great that you can make plays. That's awesome. We love that quality. But we also need to know that you can sit inside a structured offense and go through your reads and just play quarterback. Right? Play quarterback, don't play playmaker.​

​

Then with Drake Maye, I think it's the opposite. Like, he can do that, and he has shown the ability to do that and do the off-script stuff. But he very much is playing traditional quarterback.​

That's interesting, thanks for posting. The structure thing is key IMO.

 

[Ring 6]

Age.

I don’t understand. Why would that make him not a stop gap elsewhere?

 

[Steve102]

I don’t understand. Why would that make him not a stop gap elsewhere?

It does, from my seat anyway.

 

[Ring 6]

It does, from my seat anyway.

But why? What team would see him as long term while we wouldn’t?

 

[Steve102]

But why? What team would see him as long term while we wouldn’t?

I don't know. He's 35. What does he have, 3-4 years?

 

[203Pat]

I agree with what you said… but isn’t that what Mac is? High pick .. big nadda…so here we are again picking a QB this time higher in the draft. Crazy to think about all the coaches historically across the NFL losing their jobs because of not picking the right QB. A lot rides on that selection…so I’m sure there must be some trepidation

That is just the nature of the NFL and the quarterback position. Sure there are outliers of teams winning without great/elite quarterbacks and sure there are outliers of guys who became franchise quarterbacks taken after round one but those are just that, outliers. The most successful way to find a quarterback is to draft one high. Mac didn't work so it is onto the next one unless we get lucky and end up in the outlier category.

 

[203Pat]

Tanner McKee was the guy I thought we should have taken a shot on last year (for basically no risk, a 6th round pick)... Big guy, big arm, obviously not a dummy coming from Stanford ... With good coaching had the potential to be a stud ... And seems to be exceeding expectations in Philly (not in taking Hurts job of course, but making drastic improvements with good coaching)

I am all for taking developmental guys late but then you need to go down the bridge QB road if you don't already have the guy.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

That is just the nature of the NFL and the quarterback position. Sure there are outliers of teams winning without great/elite quarterbacks and sure there are outliers of guys who became franchise quarterbacks taken after round one but those are just that, outliers. The most successful way to find a quarterback is to draft one high. Mac didn't work so it is onto the next one unless we get lucky and end up in the outlier category.

True, but if we pick in the top 2, the question is more nuanced: do we take a QB there, or move down within the top 7 or even top 12 - e.g. Herbert was 6th, Allen was 7th, Mahomes was 10th, Watson was 12th. Also Lamar at 32, Hurts at 53, Love at 26, Dak at 135, Purdy at 262. There's currently 8 starters that were picked 1-5, another 8 starters picked 6-32, and about 16 starters picked after that (disregarding injuries).

 

[Rob0729]

That is just the nature of the NFL and the quarterback position. Sure there are outliers of teams winning without great/elite quarterbacks and sure there are outliers of guys who became franchise quarterbacks taken after round one but those are just that, outliers. The most successful way to find a quarterback is to draft one high. Mac didn't work so it is onto the next one unless we get lucky and end up in the outlier category.

The flip side of that is QBs in the first round often times get overdrafted.

Let;s face it. In 2021, the only real high first round worthy QBs were Lawrence and maybe Wilson (who was still probably drafted too high based on his potential). Mac, Fields, and Lance all should have been late first or second rounders. And they pretty much were at the start of the entire draft process.

I don't think you should draft a QB or any player high in the first round unless you absolutely love them. If you have doubts of a top 3 pick before you even pick him, odds are those doubts will come true. A top three pick should be a pick that there is no question in your mind that the player will be a great player. You could be wrong. But odds are if you doubt your top three pick isn't worthy of the position, he probably isn't. That is why what the 49ers did in 2021 was so stupid.

 

[Nikolai]

It's possible we, as a fanbase, are conditioned to believe there's easy gold to be found in later rounds with QBs, and it's understandable for obvious reasons.

I'm not against the idea of going the Harrison route and signing a Cousins to carry the team. With a decent defense, we could be ok. It's a bit like the Arizona Cardinals strategy during the Fitzgerald era, when they brought in Warner and Palmer and, more or less, stayed in some sort of contention. They obviously didn't win a Super Bowl, so there's that.

If you go the QB route, we just have to make sure the roster around him is up to snuff....



....as well as the coaching

 

[mgteich]

For me, the choice is relatively straightforward.

1) Draft as high as you can for your franchise QB until you have one. In addition, have a veteran backup that is capable of winning games until the franchise QB is ready. 40%, 50%, whatever. The percentage is much lower when you go out of the top 10.

Not having a veteran backup to Jones is pure malfeasance on the part of our GM.

2) Draft a long shot late as the #3 QB, and do this almost every year, until we get a quality #2.

3) When we are convinced that our pick isn't the ONE, then rinse and repeat.
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Let's be clear. We would be in the playoff fight with many of the #2 QB out there, and with some of the #3's.

 

[Rob0729]

True, but if we pick in the top 2, the question is more nuanced: do we take a QB there, or move down within the top 7 or even top 12 - e.g. Herbert was 6th, Allen was 7th, Mahomes was 10th, Watson was 12th. Also Lamar at 32, Hurts at 53, Love at 26, Dak at 135, Purdy at 262. There's currently 8 starters that were picked 1-5, another 8 starters picked 6-32, and about 16 starters picked after that (disregarding injuries).

Yeah, say they think a JJ McCarthy (just a name I am throwing out) has the potential to be as good or better than Maye or Williams, they could get a draft bonanza to trade down and draft him. They could potentially get two or three stud players for the cost of giving up their top 3 pick (assuming that is where they end up).

 

[mgteich]

.

I don't think you should draft a QB or any player high in the first round unless you absolutely love them. If you have doubts of a top 3 pick before you even pick him, odds are those doubts will come true.

OK, we can wait until the 2nd or 4th. What are the chances that a 2nd round or later QB will be our franchise QB and lead us to the promised land? 25%? Nah. Probably less?

I suppose that we can keep picking in the top 10, until a QB is acceptable, and then have the normal 50% shot at being our franchise QB. We can all try to model this approach. My guess would be that a AFC in next 10 years would be maybe 20%, probably much less.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Yeah, say they think a JJ McCarthy (just a name I am throwing out) has the potential to be as good or better than Maye or Williams, they could get a draft bonanza to trade down and draft him. They could potentially get two or three stud players for the cost of giving up their top 3 pick (assuming that is where they end up).

exactly.

 

[Rob0729]

OK, we can wait until the 2nd or 4th. What are the chances that a 2nd round or later QB will be our franchise QB and lead us to the promised land? 25%? Nah. Probably less?

I suppose that we can keep picking in the top 10, until a QB is acceptable, and then have the normal 50% shot at being our franchise QB. We can all try to model this approach. My guess would be that a AFC in next 10 years would be maybe 20%, probably much less.

First of all, who said someone like McCarthy would be in the second round? I am guessing with class, there will be 3-5 QBs drafted in the first round.

But again, are these first round QB picks really worthy of a first rounder? Or are the next tier of QBs after the top two that much less likely to be successful?

In 2021, the 49ers took the approach you suggest and gave up three first round picks to get the third best QB in the draft. And Lance wasn't just a bust, he was one of the worst busts in NFL history.

I still think you gotta love the guy to draft that high.

 

[mgteich]

BPA.

BPA will very rarely result in the drafting of a QB in any round, certainly not after the couple of picks.

The BPA is often an OT or a front seven defender. This year, the BPA may be a WR.
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Teams "overdraft" for a QB because it so hard to get quality a QB. And those teams are right to do so, even if top 15 QB's are only 50% to be a successful choice.

IMO, Jones was a good choice at 15. The choice didn't work out, perhaps because of poor coaching, perhaps just because he isn't very good. The huge mistakes were the development "plan" for Jones and the lack of a veteran backup. It is NOT second to believe that if we had the "normal" set of QB's we'd be in the playoffs. Belichick just put everything on the line in 2023 by not bringing in backups. Some fans cheered because that strategy meant either a successful Jones or a top 10 draft pick. My WAG is the Kraft will correct the error of having a GM that makes such mistakes.

 

[PATS16N0]

Take the Quarterback.

I would go one step further. I'd trade up with Chicago to secure the number 1 overall pick if we wind up with the 2nd overall (They have Carolinas first round pick). Nip those claim jumpers also looking for a QB in the bud.

play sack jones next year let him take the weekly beatings while we continue to rebuild, then jettison him after your rookie has a red shirt season.

I actually like this idea.

 

[Grogan1980]

I am all for taking developmental guys late but then you need to go down the bridge QB road if you don't already have the guy.

First noticed him when the "rumors" about Brady coming back for a last year with the Pats (I know, was a 1:1,000,000,000,000 chance), and thought he'd be a great understudy... Unrealistic, but still thought McKee had potential. Oh well, kinda irrelevant now

 

[PatsFan2]

Yeah, say they think a JJ McCarthy (just a name I am throwing out) has the potential to be as good or better than Maye or Williams, they could get a draft bonanza to trade down and draft him. They could potentially get two or three stud players for the cost of giving up their top 3 pick (assuming that is where they end up).

McCarthy is the least of the QBs I like I don't think he makes tough throws might have to watch him again. I feel he could be a overdrafted player I wouldn't make him a First Rounder. The Texas kid is better and he's leaning towards returning.