Trade Back or Straight QB Pick

[Steve102]

Why would cousins be a stopgap here but not elsewhere?

Age.

 

[vicspats]

My biggest hesitation on the guy now is that we just have been through a QB who lacked emotional maturity. Now Williams has faced far more adversity than Mac did in college, but the fact he broke down sobbing in the stands with his mother scares me a bit. And of course his size is a concern.

But that brings us to the difference between Williams and Manning/Luck/Lawrence. Physically, the later three were prototypical NFL QB. Williams, on the other hand, is very short. Doesn't mean he cannot be a generational talent, but it definitely makes him different from the other guys.

I agree the kid is weak. If he landed on a team that had a veteran defense in place, wonder if that would eliminate some of his immaturity?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We should learn from the failures of other teams. What percentage of really highly drafted QBs work out?

Brady notwithstanding, what percentage of low drafted QBs work out?

 

[p8ryts]

Unless they are in love with Maye or Williams, they probably should at least consider trading back and see what the trade offers are. This team is far from one QB away from being a playoff contender and you can risk ruining the QB if you play him with what the Patriots might have.

If you trade back, there is a chance you could get three Pro Bowlers/All Pros in exchange (potentially one of them being a QB). That is what the Dolphins did by trading back the third pick. The Bears traded back and didn't draft a QB and are in position right now to have either Maye or Williams because of it.

A lot of it depends on what they do in free agency and whether they strongly believe either Williams or Maye are potential HOFers. But I think a lot teams who bust out with a high QB draft pick do so not because they had convictions that the QB they drafted high was going to be great, but they feel they had to draft a QB high and they drafted the best available.

a lot depends on if BB returns and who replaces him. If they bring a SF whiz kid, the roster make get remade and that could be a long haul. It's easier to be a wunderkind if you have Tua and Tyreek or Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. Personally, I have confidence in BB with a competent QB. For those who consider the roster terrible, I disagree. OL will be good with an Onwenu resign and a healthy left tackle. Defense doesn't have a lot of stars, but there are quality players on IR returning and the current cast has performed well without any support from the offense. I will be disappointed if BB is shelved but I will still be a Patriots fan and a BB fan.

 

[lancerman]

I like the trade back idea.

I like a QB who feels he has something to prove, rather than an entitled attitude.

Would Jamarcus Russell have been better if he slipped to the 2nd or 3rd round?

The chip on his shoulder served Brady well, as did lowered expectations and sitting for a year.

We should learn from the failures of other teams. What percentage of really highly drafted QBs work out?

A significantly higher percentage than lower draft picks working out.

 

[p8ryts]

Brady notwithstanding, what percentage of low drafted QBs work out?

It's a crap shoot. It seems there are several tier 2 QB's with potential, such as Ewers, who I know zero about. I like Daniels best but I'm okay with a trade down for a Jimmy G type.

 

[AQPE]

I’m going to be happy with anyone they pick as long as he has “It”



And of course also as long as it isn’t a guard or a strong safety, or anyone for whom we see one word about playing special teams

 

[vicspats]

I couldn't disagree with this more. The percentage of first round QBs that are good (and this is all debatable on what is good and what isn't) is roughly 40% over the last 20 or so years. Obviously 40% is pretty low but when you look at QBs drafted outside of the first round it is significantly lower than 40%. We can't be too scared to take a QB early because we think he could end up being a bust. You can't run a football team scared of what may go wrong.

I agree with what you said… but isn’t that what Mac is? High pick .. big nadda…so here we are again picking a QB this time higher in the draft. Crazy to think about all the coaches historically across the NFL losing their jobs because of not picking the right QB. A lot rides on that selection…so I’m sure there must be some trepidation

 

[lancerman]

This team particularly does not have the luxury of overthinking and getting cute. Teams that trade down successfully are ones that usually are set at QB or at least think they have their guy AND have shown some competency in prior drafts.

Whoever the new GM/coach is, they won't survive not taking the best QB and watching that QB succeed somewhere else. If Caleb is there, you take him. Regardless of how you feel, he is far and away the best chance you can take right now at getting a franchise QB in this draft. Maye is the second. If they don't work out, you try again. But you take the best hand you are dealt. We are more likely to miss on a QB later in the draft anyways and there's no guarantee we hit on whatever we get in a trade.

 

[Grogan1980]

People seem to like to cherrypick drafts so here's another one. The 2020 draft. Burrow at 1, Tua at 5, and Herbert at 6. All great quarterbacks all went early. Hurts and Dak are anomalies. Look below at the names highlighted in red. Those are the only guys currently starting in the NFL since Dak in the 2016 draft and out of the 6 quarterbacks only Dak, Purdy, and Hurts would be considered good. That is 3 good quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round in the last 8 drafts out of all those names.

Tanner McKee was the guy I thought we should have taken a shot on last year (for basically no risk, a 6th round pick)... Big guy, big arm, obviously not a dummy coming from Stanford ... With good coaching had the potential to be a stud ... And seems to be exceeding expectations in Philly (not in taking Hurts job of course, but making drastic improvements with good coaching)

 

[jmt57]

I was going to start a similar thread earlier, but I consider there to be more options than just QB/Trade Back.

My question for the last several weeks is what position is best for the Patriots to draft, if hypothetically they have any and all options available?

Quarterback
This position is by far the most important one on the team. Football may indeed be the ultimate team sport, but the QB has an exponentially greater influence on the outcome compared to any other player.

Other Skill Player
Specifically this refers to Marvin Harrison Jr. The way the game is played now it is imperative to have that difference maker on the outside. He can dramtically change things in a positive way for his QB and OC. And this is before we consider how poor the Pats WR corps has been collectively, in such dire need of an upgrade.

Offensive Tackle
Build your roster from the line back. What good is a QB if he has no time to throw and ends up on IR? An elite OT also opens up the running game, and helps keep the defense off the field. Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt will be available when the Patriots are on the clock.

Trade Down
While it is true that trading down has resulted in much exasperation over the years, the roster has not been this bereft in talent in decades. The caveat here is getting something well worth that exchange, and not just accepting any mediocre offer.

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[PatsFan2]

People seem to like to cherrypick drafts so here's another one. The 2020 draft. Burrow at 1, Tua at 5, and Herbert at 6. All great quarterbacks all went early. Hurts and Dak are anomalies. Look below at the names highlighted in red. Those are the only guys currently starting in the NFL since Dak in the 2016 draft and out of the 6 quarterbacks only Dak, Purdy, and Hurts would be considered good. That is 3 good quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round in the last 8 drafts out of all those names.

Definitely First Round for QBs whether we like it or not.

 

[condon84]

BPA.

 

[lancerman]

I agree with what you said… but isn’t that what Mac is? High pick .. big nadda…so here we are again picking a QB this time higher in the draft. Crazy to think about all the coaches historically across the NFL losing their jobs because of not picking the right QB. A lot rides on that selection…so I’m sure there must be some trepidation

It's damned if you do and damned if you don't. Mac was the same pick because we....

1. NEEDED a QB.
2. He was the last first round worthy QB left when we picked. So Belichick and the coaches could just hide behind "well he was all that was left". They didn't make a tough decision about trading up.

You get the first pick and you have a shot at everyone so if you pick wrong, there's nobody to blame. You guess right and you are a hero. You guess wrong and you are the dumbass that screwed it up. You trade down and someone you could have got is a stud, then it's something you get ragged on.

With Mac they had the luxury of playing it safe. You couldn't critcize a QB needy team for taking the last first round worthy QB that fell to them at a spot in the draft.

 

[lancerman]

Definitely First Round for QBs whether we like it or not.

I made a big post on it, but the vast majority of QB's that win and make the Super Bowl are first round QB's. Even with Brady being a massive outlier that throws everything off, they still make up a huge majority. Considering Brady is gone and the top QB's are mostly first rounders (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Rodgers) and guys like Hurts that were still second round, are outliers..... that's likely going to increase as the years go by.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If you can’t guarantee me that you get both, then draft whomever your guy is. Don’t play no games.

There is no way a team can guarantee they get two specific players they want unless they have the top 2 picks.

Right now, they are guaranteed to have their choice of Williams and/or Maye.

If they pass on those two, their next pick is currently at 34. If they have another target in mind, then they have to either (A) hope that guy falls to 34, or (B) trade up. (A) is obviously not a given. (B) is also not a given, because it requires finding someone willing to trade out of the first round and offering a package of picks they'll accept. [It also means drafting fewer players this year, which isn't ideal.]

 

[KCSVEN]

My biggest hesitation on the guy now is that we just have been through a QB who lacked emotional maturity. Now Williams has faced far more adversity than Mac did in college, but the fact he broke down sobbing in the stands with his mother scares me a bit. And of course his size is a concern.

But that brings us to the difference between Williams and Manning/Luck/Lawrence. Physically, the later three were prototypical NFL QB. Williams, on the other hand, is very short. Doesn't mean he cannot be a generational talent, but it definitely makes him different from the other guys.

I agree with you, I'm not 100% sold on him yet, but most scouts I've read have him up there with those other guys.
As a GM, how do you pass on him? If he fails, you get a pass, everyone said he was THE guy. If you are right, you have a top 5 QB for the next decade. If you pass and he becomes the QB the scouts think, and your choice of QB is not, you probably get fired.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's a crap shoot. It seems there are several tier 2 QB's with potential, such as Ewers, who I know zero about. I like Daniels best but I'm okay with a trade down for a Jimmy G type.

Several of those QBs are likely to go back for another year (Ewers and Sanders in particular).

 

[jmt57]

Isnt Williams a version of Mac Jones with the crying and the other stuff?

Plus, he is a USC QB.

I will readily admit that I am not a college football guru. But from what these amateur eyeballs witnessed with his play this season in losses to Notre Dame, Utah, Oregona and UCLA I was still impressed - but not to the point where I would feel comfortable that he is worthy of being a number one overall pick.

What has NFL teams concerned about Caleb Williams? | Inside Coverage

Once the overwhelming favorite to the number one overall pick in next April’s NFL draft, the USC quarterback and defending Heisman Trophy winner has begun to earn some doubters. Yahoo Sports’ Jason Fitz and senior NFL reporter Charles Robinson discuss the talk that has been circulating among...

sports.yahoo.com

I don't think it's the automatic hammerlock that it felt like before the season. And what you're hearing more about Caleb Williams now that is concerning teams is how much he is operating in sort of an unscripted manner on offense. He's running around. His feet aren't always set the way that they should be. There's a Johnny Manziel-esque quality to it when he was at A&M, where Johnny, a lot of the time it looked like the offense was just Johnny trying to make a play, make something big happen.​

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I think teams are starting to see some of that with Caleb Williams, especially in this last season, and they're going to nitpick at that. They're going to say, we need you to-- that's great that you can make plays. That's awesome. We love that quality. But we also need to know that you can sit inside a structured offense and go through your reads and just play quarterback. Right? Play quarterback, don't play playmaker.​

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Then with Drake Maye, I think it's the opposite. Like, he can do that, and he has shown the ability to do that and do the off-script stuff. But he very much is playing traditional quarterback.​

 

[goheels22002]

As a Toronto boy, I'm suspicious of anyone named Drake.

Get lost, you hoser!