Mac and the "It Factor"

[RodThePat]

Separation stats suck, honestly. They tell you very little. The Patriots receivers have trouble separating against man, but not because of Next Gen Stats telling us they've averaged 1.6 yards of separation or whatever. NGS counts separation at the time the receiver gets targeted, so if the QB is late with the ball the receiver is penalized, if the QB throws the ball behind the receiver bringing him into coverage the receiver is penalized, if the receiver dusts his marker and gets 5 yards of separation but doesn't get thrown the ball it doesn't count, if the receiver jukes the corner into the ground but the QB holds and holds the ball and only targets him when the safety is closing in, that's the nearest defender used in the calculation, not the peak separation at the top of the route. It's kind of useless. You'll often see some very good receivers and route runners at the bottom of those separation stats, due to them being trusted to be targeted even in tight windows more often, while worse players that only get the ball when they're wide open rank highly. People read it as "average peak separation per route run", when it doesn't measure peak separation and only counts if the receiver is targeted.

I'd honestly even go so far as to say that separation in the specific way Next Gen Stats measures it is more a play caller stat than a receiver one.

 

[Ian]

Separation stats suck, honestly. They tell you very little. The Patriots receivers have trouble separating against man, but not because of Next Gen Stats telling us they've averaged 1.6 yards of separation or whatever. NGS counts separation at the time the receiver gets targeted, so if the QB is late with the ball the receiver is penalized, if the QB throws the ball behind the receiver bringing him into coverage the receiver is penalized, if the receiver dusts his marker and gets 5 yards of separation but doesn't get thrown the ball it doesn't count, if the receiver jukes the corner into the ground but the QB holds and holds the ball and only targets him when the safety is closing in, that's the nearest defender used in the calculation, not the peak separation at the top of the route. It's kind of useless. You'll often see some very good receivers and route runners at the bottom of those separation stats, due to them being trusted to be targeted even in tight windows more often, while worse players that only get the ball when they're wide open rank highly. People read it as "average peak separation per route run", when it doesn't measure peak separation and only counts if the receiver is targeted.

I'd honestly even go so far as to say that separation in the specific way Next Gen Stats measures it is more a play caller stat than a receiver one.

Sort of, but it measures the distance between the receivers and the defender, so while it is subjective, that distance is essentially how they evaluate it. And you're right. It could be how the play is drawn up, it could be the fact the receiver isn't fast/quick enough to get away. I will say the fact that technology even exists has been interesting. It's just too bad the website they built for it isn't better...glitches all over the place and makes it very difficult to try and look things up.

 

[RodThePat]

Sort of, but it measures the distance between the receivers and the defender, so while it is subjective, that distance is essentially how they evaluate it. And you're right. It could be how the play is drawn up, it could be the fact the receiver isn't fast/quick enough to get away. I will say the fact that technology even exists has been interesting. It's just too bad the website they built for it isn't better...glitches all over the place and makes it very difficult to try and look things up.

It measures the distance between the receiver and the closest defender only when he's targeted and at the point he receives the ball. It hinges so much on play calling and QB decision making/accuracy that in the way it's calculated I just don't know how you could say it's solely a receiver stat.

I mean, right now by that very same stat the best separators in the league are Cole Kmet and Luke Musgrave. Guys like Tyler Conklin, former Jet Elijah Moore and our very own Mike Gesicki rank super high, while AJ Brown, Steffon Diggs and Davante Adams are middle of the pack. Depth of route, target rate, a whole lot of stuff comes into play that will impact separation in the way NGS measures it. Considering there's little to no correlation between the output of that stat and the receiver's quality or route running ability, I'd just not even consider it.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Part of the passing game making the run game effective is having speed threats on the outside potent enough to prevent defenses from overselling at the LOS. The Pats lack that.

I agree but if you watch the QB School with the All22 you can see that guys are open and Mac is missing them. Parker is open in almost every screenshot on the QB School tutorial.

Also, not only have Mac's reads lacked separation, he hasn't had sufficient time to even see them.

On the first drive Parker was wide open for the TD across the middle and Mac tried to throw a back footed pass to Gesicki who was double covered. Guys are open, look at the tape.

Against Dallas he was under pressure 53 percent of the time, which is almost unheard of -- that's how bad the pass blocking was. This doesn't excuse some of the horrid decisions he made but no quarterback is going to maintain composure (and mechanics) under that kind of consistent pressure.

Agreed. As long as Mac can not hit the quick outs and slants, teams will continue to copy the Miami defensive game plan by playing a base defense with a heavy emphasis on QB pressure. Watch Tua, three or five steps back, he plants the back foot, and the ball is out. Then watch Mac, three or five steps back, he plants his back foot, and then he starts dancing. Watch the QB School tape. It is obvious.

 

[Ian]

It measures the distance between the receiver and the closest defender only when he's targeted and at the point he receives the ball. It hinges so much on play calling and QB decision making/accuracy that in the way it's calculated I just don't know how you could say it's solely a receiver stat.

I don't disagree, and I don't know what the duration is, whether it's for the entirety of the play or just based on the proximity when the ball gets there. So that's definitely a good question.

 

[amfootball]

#31 ranked offense. Counting the 21 points given away, far and away the 32nd ranked offense. How do you get here?

Bad offensive line
Bad skill players
Bad quarterback

Again what does the receiver separation have to do with Mac Jones? We’re not looking at why this team is ranked 16th and how improved WRs could get them to 10th.

We’re looking at the obvious: failures everywhere. They need better blocking. They need better receivers. They need a third down back. They need a quarterback.

I really don't think the skill guys are that bad this year. We have two great RBs, two solid TEs, the receivers are getting open but Mac is either missing them on his reads or does not have time to get the ball to them because of the bad Oline. I know Zappe only threw a handful of passes on Sunday but you could see him throw with anticipation and that made a huge difference for the receivers who have to be hit with the ball as soon as they break.

 

[captain stone]

Bill always used to be one step ahead at some crucial positions. We won't even touch on what he did at QB but we went from Matt Light to Nate Solder at LT and then he whiffed on Wynn and now musical chairs in the last couple years with Trent Brown. We had Troy Brown, then to Wes Welker, to Edelman/Amendola, to Meyers, and now to no one in the slot receiver role. We went from Kevin Faulk, to Danny Woodhead, to Shane Vereen, to James White, to no one as a third down back.

Those are three of the most important positions in this offense and Bill has either neglected or whiffed on them in the draft or free agency. He has built the 30th ranked offense that punts almost 80% of its drives, has a QB that looks broken, an offensive line that can't block in the run or passing game, an overpaid receiver that can't run, and not a single explosive player on that side of the ball.

I think we all need to look at the positives:

 

[mike_usagisan]

Agreed. As long as Mac can not hit the quick outs and slants, teams will continue to copy the Miami defensive game plan by playing a base defense with a heavy emphasis on QB pressure. Watch Tua, three or five steps back, he plants the back foot, and the ball is out. Then watch Mac, three or five steps back, he plants his back foot, and then he starts dancing. Watch the QB School tape. It is obvious.

An interesting thing from that video was he talked about how he could see Mac's regression from the start of the game to the end of the game. He started well, and as the game fell apart and Mac pressed himself to do more, his mechanics completely unraveled.

On the positive side, that's one game and he's looked better previously (according to previous QB School videos). On the negative side, it suggests that he's not very good when the pressure gets turned up.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

@Rob0729
take a close look at the wr routes here please

It wasn't all Patricia#s fault as a lot of guys blamed him for WR running into each other. The same **** play designs are in the current Offense as well. Two WR running into each other in the MOF and the RB runs in this area as well. Easy to defend, no one open, these schemes are not good enough for the NFL level




Trent Brown already got beaten, the other edge rusher is around the T soon as well, no one open, #1 and Douglas are running into each other on this play, without Jones extending this play with his feet he wouldn't be able to hit Douglas for that huge gain.

Somebody ran the wrong route. This is not the play call. Rham #38 short over the middle, Parker #1 intermediate over the middle, and my guess is that Douglas was supposed to run into the right flat and instead ran over the middle into Parker. Douglas is having a hard time picking up the plays. Jonnu Smith was the same so BB traded him (he ran into Henry last year). The play was not designed as it was executed.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

An interesting thing from that video was he talked about how he could see Mac's regression from the start of the game to the end of the game. He started well, and as the game fell apart and Mac pressed himself to do more, his mechanics completely unraveled.

On the positive side, that's one game and he's looked better previously (according to previous QB School videos). On the negative side, it suggests that he's not very good when the pressure gets turned up.

Mac started falling apart on the goal line play on the 1st drive. On the 1st drive!!! I am not sure anyone recovers from being that scared. Maybe. It seems like a heavy lift to me.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

No one is coming; it's up to them.

Hey, you should make a t-shirt

 

[RodThePat]

Somebody ran the wrong route. This is not the play call. Rham #38 short over the middle, Parker #1 intermediate over the middle, and my guess is that Douglas was supposed to run into the right flat and instead ran over the middle into Parker. Douglas is having a hard time picking up the plays. Jonnu Smith was the same so BB traded him (he ran into Henry last year). The play was not designed as it was executed.

Douglas was supposed to do exactly what he did, run across the middle of the field and cross with Parker. He just didn't get the correct depth and bumped into him. He executed the route poorly, but he ran the correct route the concept called for.

Now, the concept kinda sucks because they're either calling mesh with so much depth that you just generate traffic over the middle and don't really conflict the linebackers into having to clamp down and opening passing lanes or the receivers are so poorly coached they actually ran it 4 yards deeper than they should. And then you compound the issue by having the RB leak into the middle of the field in front of the mesh, which further muddles the look and ruins spacing. So Douglas was supposed to run across the field there, but the way they integrated the mesh into the concept isn't great.

 

[archstanton543]

Mac started falling apart on the goal line play on the 1st drive. On the 1st drive!!! I am not sure anyone recovers from being that scared. Maybe. It seems like a heavy lift to me.

If Gesucky makes a play there, maybe he doesn't fall apart. If BB goes for the TD rather than a FG maybe he doesn't fall apart.

 

[archstanton543]

Hey, you should make a t-shirt

Of the worst Pats' team slogan ever? I don't think it will sell.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If Gesucky makes a play there, maybe he doesn't fall apart. If BB goes for the TD rather than a FG maybe he doesn't fall apart.

Maybe. But Gesicki was Mac's third read, and his second read, Parker, was wide open for the TD. Mac might have recovered if the play worked out, but he had already started his panicking. Watch Mac's feet and look at Parker wide open on a slant.

 

[Kasmir]

Of the worst Pats' team slogan ever? I don't think it will sell.

Maybe the T-shirt should have said "JC is coming soon"

 

[mike_usagisan]

Maybe. But Gesicki was Mac's third read, and his second read, Parker, was wide open for the TD. Mac might have recovered if the play worked out, but he had already started his panicking. Watch Mac's feet and look at Parker wide open on a slant.

Yeah, it was pretty terrible in the QB School video. Gesicki was double teamed on that play too.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Douglas was supposed to do exactly what he did, run across the middle of the field and cross with Parker. He just didn't get the correct depth and bumped into him. He executed the route poorly, but he ran the correct route the concept called for.

Now, the concept kinda sucks because they're either calling mesh with so much depth that you just generate traffick over the middle and don't really conflict the linebackers into having to clamp down and opening passing lanes or the receivers are so poorly coached they actually ran it 4 yards deeper than they should. And then you compound the issue by having the RB leak into the middle of the field in front of the mesh, which further muddles the look and ruins spacing. So Douglas was supposed to run across the field there, but the way they integrated the mesh into the concept isn't great.

Thanks. Yeah it was a mess. If Rham ran the right route and Douglas was supposed to go over the middle, it must have been a very deep middle route for Douglas. Three guys at various depths over the middle seemed a bit crowded to me.

 

[203Pat]

No one is coming; it's up to them.

Lol Apparently Old Joe Judge cooked up some more t-shirts on Sunday. I guess they were wearing "real men cover kicks" or something similarly ridiculous. Also our special teams hasn't been great either.

 

[RodThePat]

Lol Apparently Old Joe Judge cooked up some more t-shirts on Sunday. I guess they were wearing "real men cover kicks" or something similarly ridiculous. Also our special teams hasn't been great either.

"Tough teams cover kicks". Just all the right priorities with this team. Yeah, kick coverage, that's why they aren't winning. Stop the run, tackle on special teams, don't turn the ball over. Might as well bring Y. A Tittle in at quarterback.