How Good Does Mac Have To Be To Get His Option Picked Up?

[Real fan 02]

To me Daniel Jones isn't worth the contract he got in any way, that's the formula for being stuck with a guy that can only be as good as his environment and won't elevate a team while paying 40 million for that privilege. I guess maybe that level of performance would warrant Mac's 5th year option being picked up, but surely not an extension at the price he'd command.

While I'll agree, the main thing is we need Mac to play well and the offense to be in sync. That happens we'll be able to compete with anyone. Having a defense that will always keep the team in the game. The QB... well ... good QB play salaries I'll say is going to continue to climb.

 

[mgteich]

Seems to me that if you don’t pick up the option then you have a highly, highly motivated 4th year QB because that suddenly becomes a contract year. See Jones, Daniel.

Yup, that could happen. The Giants got everything they wanted from Jones, and now have paid. This is the BEST case scenario. I'm not sure that Belichick would want that great success.

On the other hand, I believe that it is equally likely that the 4th year player doesn't play as well as he might have had the team picked up the option.

The Fifth-Year Option Can Be Friend or Foe

The Fifth-Year Option Can be Friend or Foe: The 2011 CBA drastically changed the way NFL rookie contracts are done. Drafted players went from

www.the33rdteam.com

The 5th year option is insurance. Sure, you might have secured a starter that you know will work out in 2024. More likely, you would rather have a known starter available.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yup, that could happen. The Giants got everything they wanted from Jones, and now have paid. This is the BEST case scenario. I'm not sure that Belichick would want that great success.

On the other hand, I believe that it is equally likely that the 4th year player doesn't play as well as he might have had the team picked up the option.

Another thing that goes without mentioning is BOB is very good with QBs and getting them to maximize thier potential.. GOAT even made mention that he credits BOB for helping him even evolve as QB.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I expect to see Mac take a leap this year. He's shown us flashes of his upside/ceiling, but hasn't consistently put it together. He went through some adversity last year with his injury, his receivers' injuries, the disarray around him, and the crazy L's that should have been W's. Having survived that, together with the apparent team & coaching improvements around him, he should be a much improved player this year.

The part of his game I'll be looking at most is his mobility (his arm-smarts-leadership are all very good). At times he has moved up in the pocket well, scrambled well, run well, thrown on the run well, reacted to pressure well - last year's Ravens game in particular. At other times he has looked underwhelming and panicky in those situations, and didn't see lanes that were there. He's got to become more fluid and relaxed when the pocket starts to break down, break through contact like Brady learned to do, and use his speed to get outside.

Agree. This is what I’m looki

My point is more that, if Mac shows he is pretty good, say 4K yards 27tds. even if its not "all pro/elite" I don't see how you don't pick it up.

If you refuse to pay any QB who isnt "All pro/elite" after their first 3 years that is no way to build a team. keep going into the lottery every 3-4 years and letting alot of decent QB's go..Doesn't mean you don't keep drafting though

I didn’t say he should play for free, I said I wouldn’t give $40 million per to an average QB. And I would not stop looking for a franchise QB until I found one.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Lol no worries my friend.. I get your impatience, but I urge you to look into the stats I provided you.. and really look at them.. you seriously? With an open mind? Everything that has transpired last season and this offseason truly believe we could be worse that that?

Mac isn't bad . He wasn't drafted to be bad.. he was drafted on what his intangibles are. His accuracy his ability to read and analyze defenses, he showed all of that in 2021.. top 10 in offense, top 5 in red zone.. wasn't a fluke.

Any ranking better than 32 is a good number, compared with 32.

 

[Bill Lee]

All we have to do is look at the production from Daniel jones. He's the best comparison to use. As his production at the QB position is wich led his team to the playoffs. Mac is capable of that and beyond. Mac will have support.. a great RB group led by Rham a nice mix of WRs and TEs.

I think it's a decent comp, but we have to keep in mind DJ is going into his fifth season after not having his fifth-year option picked up, whereas MJ is going into his third season. A lot can still happen positively or negatively to MJ's career trajectory this season and next that could make it a better or a worse comp.

DJ's numbers:

2023: $9.5M (fully guaranteed) (will be his 5th year)
2024: $35.5M (fully guaranteed)
2025: $30M (guaranteed for injury at time of signing. If he’s on the roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year, $11M is guaranteed for skill and cap)
2026: $46.5M

The Gints have gotten DJ to sign for in essence $45M for the first 2 years so $22.5M/year. As noted in the verbiage above he's cuttable at the beginning of 2025 so the Gints can bale if they need/want to, albeit with an ugly cap hit. If they want to keep him then $30M/year for year seven for a starting QB is a team-friendly number. The last number is not guaranteed so neither side really expects that to be the number.

Bottom line is the Gints will have gotten a NFL-starter caliber QB for six to seven years at team-friendly numbers, but it's too early to know if that's how MJ's career trajectory will work out.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Daniel Jones might be a good comparison. Like Mac, he struggled early in his career, but got a big extension after not only leading his team to the playoffs but winning a playoff game. Before that it was murky whether the Giants were going to bring him back. So Mac may have to get into the playoffs and win at least one game to show the Pats coaching staff that's he worth keeping around.

Daniel Jones improved greatly once Joe Judge was fired…. And then he came here as QB coach, partnered with Fat Matt Patricia for a symphony of incompetence, and Mac Jones went from a rookie of the year candidate and alternate pro bowler with 10 wins and playoff appearance to a bottom of the league QB/Offense

I don’t think that’s purely coincidence

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Mac was touted (correctly so) as a pro ready, high floor QB prospect, physically. Most people think of something physical pertaining to "upside." Most of his upside, if not all is coming on the mental side of the game. Year 2/3 are the most important for a QB's development. So there's nothing wrong with having realistic expectations at this point. Regardless of what happened the last two years. Mac should be ready to lead a playoff ready team to the playoffs at this point. We have a thread on "how many wins" but the more appropriate question is "can he hang with Josh Allen?"

Stats - 11 or 12 QB's passed for at least 25 TD last year. I think 25-29 TD - 4000 - 66+% Top 15 A/ANY is realistic for who he is and was projected to be. NE brought in multiple WR, TE and now OB so I don't believe those are unrealistic. Specifically related to what most were expecting from Mac (15th overall, record year at Bama, pro ready) You don't bring in multiple OC, WR, TE and NOT judge the QB.

On the field, specific play - he's had trouble with pressure from the second level since he came in the league. The closer pressure is around his feet the the more problematic it is for him. I don't expect that to change a lot but ID delayed stunts and blitzes are must for a QB like him. Hes not mobile or physically gifted enough to recover that quickly from situations like that.
He could process a little faster too. He's had more than a few defenders read him up & down off his 1st read (colts game stands out). Post snap processing/decision making could be quicker and better. I think he could be a little faster in general. Arm strength and others but those are the big ones.

It's tough to translate it in stats but they usually follow very good - great players. More importantly Mac just needs to get it done and make it happen. He needs to show he belongs with the big "names." And show some kind of special. Make the tough plays more routine. Completely eliminate the few dumb mistakes he makes. It's not many but we've seen him make 1-2 boneheaded plays a game and he simply doesn't have the room for error to make up for those mishaps like a Allen or Burrow could. To date we've yet to see "special" from Mac. I understand he had to deal with Patricia and Judge last year but you can see special through the mud. There's plenty of instances of it. Manning looked like dogshit his rookie year but everyone knew he would play in the SB bc of peaks and potential. We need to see that this year.

I'm in the minority or maybe I'm reading this wrong but Daniel Jones isn't my favorite comp or we. I'm a fan if anyone remembers from his college days but his upside or peaks come from his rushing ability. Isolate his passing stats and ask yourself if you want to pay 40m per for that. Career sub 6 any/a, doesn't throw TD and has taken over 100 sacks the last 3 years. There's not much separation in terms of per year earning a lot of years. Some guys have more security but the per year #'s are just bonkers.

No we need to hope for Burrow-Brady - lite. (not Tom Brady, I've been calling Joe Burrow, Joe Brady)

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Daniel Jones improved greatly once Joe Judge was fired…. And then he came here as QB coach, partnered with Fat Matt Patricia for a symphony of incompetence, and Mac Jones went from a rookie of the year candidate and alternate pro bowler with 10 wins and playoff appearance to a bottom of the league QB/Offense

I don’t think that’s purely coincidence

True, Patricia was a big part of Mac's slide in year 2. However, I do think Daniel Jones' skillset is better than Mac's - he has a much better arm and is one of the better-running QBs in the league. DJ's decision-making also significantly improved in years 3 and 4. He's had a terrible offensive line to date, so it will be interesting to see how much he improves with better protection. That and he's gone through multiple offensive coordinators like Mac.

 

[Real fan 02]

I think it's a decent comp, but we have to keep in mind DJ is going into his fifth season after not having his fifth-year option picked up, whereas MJ is going into his third season. A lot can still happen positively or negatively to MJ's career trajectory this season and next that could make it a better or a worse comp.

DJ's numbers:

2023: $9.5M (fully guaranteed) (will be his 5th year)
2024: $35.5M (fully guaranteed)
2025: $30M (guaranteed for injury at time of signing. If he’s on the roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year, $11M is guaranteed for skill and cap)
2026: $46.5M

The Gints have gotten DJ to sign for in essence $45M for the first 2 years so $22.5M/year. As noted in the verbiage above he's cuttable at the beginning of 2025 so the Gints can bale if they need/want to, albeit with an ugly cap hit. If they want to keep him then $30M/year for year seven for a starting QB is a team-friendly number. The last number is not guaranteed so neither side really expects that to be the number.

Bottom line is the Gints will have gotten a NFL-starter caliber QB for six to seven years at team-friendly numbers, but it's too early to know if that's how MJ's career trajectory will work out.

Great info!! You make perfect sense.. yes that's right DJ is a 2019 draft pick. He too was also a Joe Judge victim.. so I give him some what of a pass during judge's time there.

Mac in my opinion just needs to follow the script of what got him to the NFL.. he has winning pedigree, structure, accountability. Basically he has all the traits you want in a QB.. while physically he's not Allen or Mahomes.. but he can be the best version of Mac Jones.

If he reaches or what I believe will surpass his 2021 production it will force the team to pick up the option.. if like RK says he loves Mac, and believes he is the QB to lead this team then they will have to pay him.

Or else it's mediocrity for years to come.. we will become one of those teams we used to routinely pummel.

So I'm sure Mac's representatives have likely had that discussion on what's available to him if he can bounce back.

I'll say.. I'm going to say we will see more often than not... the Minnesota Vikings game of last season version of Mac that's my bold prediction for the season!

 

[Real fan 02]

Any ranking better than 32 is a good number, compared with 32.

We'll be a top 10 offense, top 5 defense..

 

[PatsFanInVa]

From your keyboard to God's monitor. But the other guys get paid too. Man,. I am so ready to start seeing the season unfold.

 

[Real fan 02]

From your keyboard to God's monitor. But the other guys get paid too. Man,. I am so ready to start seeing the season unfold.

Brother I'm right with ya, that is true... we need to be the best 2023 patriots team we can be.. no excuses, no blame game, we need to start fast and stay aggressive on offense and defense.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Brother I'm right with ya, that is true... we need to be the best 2023 patriots team we can be.. no excuses, no blame game, we need to start fast and stay aggressive on offense and defense.

Yes like everybody I have big hopes of a jump by the offense... but man how I would love for the defense to open up with a huge statement game and make Hurts live up to his name. Sure I would love for offense and defense to be great, but I would be thrilled with 3-0.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Great info!! You make perfect sense.. yes that's right DJ is a 2019 draft pick. He too was also a Joe Judge victim.. so I give him some what of a pass during judge's time there.

Mac in my opinion just needs to follow the script of what got him to the NFL.. he has winning pedigree, structure, accountability. Basically he has all the traits you want in a QB.. while physically he's not Allen or Mahomes.. but he can be the best version of Mac Jones.

If he reaches or what I believe will surpass his 2021 production it will force the team to pick up the option.. if like RK says he loves Mac, and believes he is the QB to lead this team then they will have to pay him.

Or else it's mediocrity for years to come.. we will become one of those teams we used to routinely pummel.

So I'm sure Mac's representatives have likely had that discussion on what's available to him if he can bounce back.

I'll say.. I'm going to say we will see more often than not... the Minnesota Vikings game of last season version of Mac that's my bold prediction for the season!

didn't we lose to the Vikings

 

[Real fan 02]

didn't we lose to the Vikings

We did.. just using the comparison to how Mac played in that game.. we lost to the Ravens as well another game he played well in.. 300 plus passing yards..

 

[captain stone]

We did.. just using the comparison to how Mac played in that game..

Except in the 4th quarter, during the final few drives, when it matters...

 

[Real fan 02]

Except in the 4th quarter, during the final few drives, when it matters...

Yeah.... that's where Mac will have to be better when it's crunch time. I believe he will. Also I don't necessarily think he's going to be in to many have to have it scenarios.. man.. I'm telling you this defense is going to be next level.. I'm talking they could be stifling offenses

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Good question.
If you dismiss last season as a BB brain-fart, then you can either argue that Mac has really only had one season to prove himself or argue that he should have done more with the opportunity he had in 22-23...but, I'm not going there.

What I do think is that it's a matter of his trajectory this season. The schedule is brutal and that the Offense is, according to "insiders," completely revamped. So, I'm going to look at how Mac performs in November and December.

I don't expect much more than 8 or 9 W's for the team overall, but how Mac matures into a new system and how he handles adversity are what I'm going to be looking at. And, I think that the "adversity" should start with a genuine QB competition in Training Camp. I'm not sold on Zappe, but I'd feel a lot better if Mac comes out with a chip on his shoulder and shows that he's "this year's guy" before opening day. He'll never become "The Guy" unless he proves he's "the 2023 guy."

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I was going to put this into my post (#99) just above, but I realized it's a separate point.

I think we have to step back and realize that we're only into "Post GOAT Season #4." But, let's look at modern/SB era Dynasties (i.e., don't go back to the old Browns).

The Packers waited ~30 seasons after the fifth Lombardi/Starr NFL Championship/SB win in 1967 before Favre took them back for another in 1996. 14 years or so after that, Aaaron won his (only) ring in 2010. Now, another 13 years and still counting again.
So, post Lombardi/Starr, two rings in over 50 seasons.

The Cowboys waited a relatively short 14 years after the last Landry/Staubach SB in 1978 (they went seven times, winning two) until Aikman and Johnson took them back in 1992. It's now been another 27 seasons since they returned after the 1995 W.
So, post Landry/Staubach, three rings in 46 or so seasons and none in the last 27.

Noll and Bradshaw (and the Iron Curtain) won their fourth SB in 1979. It would be 26 years before Big Ben got his first ring in 2005 and his second in 2008, but the Steelers haven't been back since 2010.
So, post Noll/Bradshaw, two rings in 43 or so seasons and none in 15 years.

Montana won his fourth ring in 1989 (three with Walsh, one with Seifert). The 'niners won another with Young and Seifert in 1994 and returned twice since then (2012 and 2019), losing both times.
So Post Montana/Young/Walsh/Seifert, no rings in 28 seasons.

What's the point? I hope our guys don't have to wait as long as any of those other great Franchises...the Krafts are amazing owners, but so are the Rooney's. The 'niners and Cowboys have not been as fortunate. The Pack is owned by the fans.

But, I think we have to calibrate our expectations. I really hope Mac's "The Guy" and think he deserves another season before the Pats start looking for someone else.