DRAFT Chad Ryland - Round 4 - 112th overall

[Ring 6]

You want to rehash all of this again?


My take is it was a dumb, inexcusable decision. You're content with the softer "it didn't work." They lost the game as a result. 1 of 3 games that BB's coaching completely screwed up that one season (2015). They had a Super Bowl caliber team in 2015, it didn't work, because the head coach got in the way.


According to who? We don't have the actual reason because everyone is so tight-lipped about it but Patricia, Belichick and Malcolm are all on record stating Malcolm was "ready to go" for that game. Malcolm's absence from the defense cost them the game. Period.


You said my takes suck so I was pointing out a few instances where my takes were dead on. Now you're moving onto BB has made plenty of good decisions as well... that's great, obviously, but it doesn't eliminate the bad ones or make my takes irrelevant.


It's valid when you're picking on individual takes. And you're ignoring the bigger picture here, which is Belichick has been a head coach in the NFL for 28 seasons, 18 with Brady, and 10 without. All of his success, every ounce, is in those 18 seasons with Brady (17 division titles and 9 SB appearances). 7 of the other 10 seasons finished with a losing record, none resulted in a division title, and only 1 playoff win in a decade. So the take that gets me in hot water here, the one that's unequivocally supported by the record, is Belichick the GOAT HC can't win without Brady.


Probably Moody, who they didn't take, so FAIL.


Not according to the 19 teams who rolled into the 2022 season with an UDFA kicker. Must be a lot of dumb NFL executives.


What rate are you talking about? Do you have a number? Show me.

FG% leaders for the 2022 season (top 10):

95.5% - ****er - UDFA
94.3% - Pineiro - UDFA
93.5% - Fairbairn - UDFA
93.3% - Gay - 5th round
91.9% - Meyers - UDFA
91.9% - Carlson - 5th round
91.3% - Santos - UDFA
90.6% - Maher - UDFA
90.6% - Gano - UDFA
88.0% - Prater - UDFA

Hello!! 8 of the top 10 in FG% are UDFA.

Straying further and further from the topic, a sure way to prove you know you are wrong.

What rate? The rate of UDFAs that succeed. You are comparing the rate of success of drafted Ks to the amount of UDFAs that are in the league completely ignoring the fact that 100s of UDFA Ks never made it to a game.
This has been the flaw in your approach all along and you refuse to accept it.

If 20 kickers are drafted and 10 make it but 100 Ks are signed as UDFAs and 12 make it, a team needing a K has a better chance of getting one in the draft despite the fact that other teams choose to pick off the scrap heap and pray.

 

[crawhammer]

What rate? The rate of UDFAs that succeed.

Did you see the top 10 FG% list? Ever heard of Justin Tucker?

You are comparing the rate of success of drafted Ks to the amount of UDFAs that are in the league completely ignoring the fact that 100s of UDFA Ks never made it to a game.

Where are you getting this "100s of UDFA Ks" figure? It's completely made up.

 

[Joker]

Did you see the top 10 FG% list? Ever heard of Justin Tucker?

More Ravens player pimping...BAN THIS OBVIOUS TROLL!!!!!

 

[crawhammer]

More Ravens player pimping...BAN THIS OBVIOUS TROLL!!!!!

Tucker is UDFA K example 1A. That's all, brother. Not a Ravens fans. Just a bigtime believer in LJ.

 

[Ring 6]

Did you see the top 10 FG% list? Ever heard of Justin Tucker?


Where are you getting this "100s of UDFA Ks" figure? It's completely made up.

You went back over 20 years, so yes there were hundreds of UDFA Ks.
Your argument is instead of drafting a K because of the odds they will be good, you should just rely on the leftovers. What are the chances of picking a good left over? So to fairly compare the approaches you need to see the % of UDFAs that made it out of all UDFAs.

There are more UDFAs in the NFL so if I follow your logic you shouldn’t draft players in the first round, UDFAs are better.

 

[crawhammer]

You went back over 20 years, so yes there were hundreds of UDFA Ks.

There were 8 UDFA kickers after the draft, which is the highest amount I can find over the last several years. 6, 6, & 5 the previous three years. 3 in 2019 and only 2 in 2017. 8 in 2018. We get an average of 5.4 UDFA kickers per year, which is 108 over 20 years. So your claim of "hundreds of UDFA Ks" is an exaggeration.

 

[Kasmir]

There were 8 UDFA kickers after the draft, which is the highest amount I can find over the last several years. 6, 6, & 5 the previous three years. 3 in 2019 and only 2 in 2017. 8 in 2018. We get an average of 5.4 UDFA kickers per year, which is 108 over 20 years. So your claim of "hundreds of UDFA Ks" is an exaggeration.

What a silly argument. If a team wants a particular kicker, why not spend a draft pick to get the one they want? Why choose to compete in the UDFA market for a kicker you know you want when you can use a pick to secure him?

Using a 4th on a kicker is a pretty safe bet vs other positions -- the average chance of a 4th round pick making the roster is 8%. And every other position can also be found in the UDFA market anyway -- 23% of NFL rosters are filled by UDFA's...

 

[crawhammer]

23% of NFL rosters are filled by UDFA's...

59% of kickers rostered in 2022 were UDFAs. Including 8 of the top 10 in FG%. Belichick traded up for a K in the 4th round. There was 1 kicker in the NFL last season taken higher than the 5th round and he sucked.

 

[Zuma]

What rate are you talking about? FG% leaders for the 2022 season (top 10):

95.5% - ****er - UDFA
94.3% - Pineiro - UDFA
93.5% - Fairbairn - UDFA
93.3% - Gay - 5th round
91.9% - Meyers - UDFA
91.9% - Carlson - 5th round
91.3% - Santos - UDFA
90.6% - Maher - UDFA
90.6% - Gano - UDFA
88.0% - Prater - UDFA

Hello!! 8 of the top 10 in FG% are UDFA.

If these numbers are accurate…you’ve been awarded a lifetime pats fans achievement award. We still needed a kicker however.

 

[Joker]

If these numbers are accurate…you’ve been awarded a lifetime pats fans achievement award. We still needed a kicker however.

don't confuse the Ravens troll with promises of a reward....

 

[Zuma]

don't confuse the Ravens troll with promises of a reward....

Ok

 

[Joker]

Ok

I should have posted "use your own disgression" but the stooljammer is not worth a response on any level...IMO

 

[Kasmir]

59% of kickers rostered in 2022 were UDFAs. Including 8 of the top 10 in FG%. Belichick traded up for a K in the 4th round. There was 1 kicker in the NFL last season taken higher than the 5th round and he sucked.

Kicker and Punter are required game day positions. They are necessarily much more important positions than a backup player that doesn't dress for gameday. They are guaranteed to touch (kick) the ball multiple times on game day.

A team that hopes to find those positions as UDFA's believes the positions are generic and/or NFL performance is unpredictable. If generic you can just sign anybody and if unpredictable you hold tryouts until you find someone you like.

A team that believes K and P are not generic and you can find significantly superior performers at those positions should pick them in the draft, particularly as they have the longest careers in the NFL and are vital in scoring and to field position. What's wrong with spending a 4th round pick every 10 years for a superior kicker or punter?

I'm actually surprised more teams don't draft K and P to try to get the best talent and hence competitive advantage at those essential gameday positions.

 

[Ring 6]

There were 8 UDFA kickers after the draft, which is the highest amount I can find over the last several years. 6, 6, & 5 the previous three years. 3 in 2019 and only 2 in 2017. 8 in 2018. We get an average of 5.4 UDFA kickers per year, which is 108 over 20 years. So your claim of "hundreds of UDFA Ks" is an exaggeration.

There were many more than 8 undrafted kickers in camps last year.
Your data is wrong.

 

[crawhammer]

What's wrong with spending a 4th round pick every 10 years for a superior kicker or punter?

It's unnecessary. And they spent a 4th and a 6th for a K... 2 picks for 1 K. And since when does drafting a K in the 4th guarantee a superior kicker? Oh that's right, it doesn't.

Kicker and Punter are required game day positions.

I agree.

I'm actually surprised more teams don't draft K and P to try to get the best talent and hence competitive advantage at those essential gameday positions.

If by essential you mean important then no I don't agree as it relates to the importance of other positions like QB, WR, TE, RB, OL, DL, LB, & DB.

You know who K and P are more important than? Other special teamers except for possibly KR and PR. The most useless players on any team are special teamers who don't regularly touch the ball or play another position on offense or defense.

 

[crawhammer]

There were many more than 8 undrafted kickers in camps last year.
Your data is wrong.

Where you getting your data? The thin air? I counted from a list provided by NFL.com.

 

[State]

FG% leaders for the 2022 season (top 10):

95.5% - ****er - UDFA
94.3% - Pineiro - UDFA
93.5% - Fairbairn - UDFA
93.3% - Gay - 5th round
91.9% - Meyers - UDFA
91.9% - Carlson - 5th round
91.3% - Santos - UDFA
90.6% - Maher - UDFA
90.6% - Gano - UDFA
88.0% - Prater - UDFA

Wow. Are these called facts? Funny thing they.

Maybe all these specialists in Belichick’s recent drafts—two fourth round kickers in 2021 and 2023 is a terrible idea.

Does anyone know who our LT is going to be?

 

[Kasmir]

It's unnecessary. And they spent a 4th and a 6th for a K... 2 picks for 1 K. And since when does drafting a K in the 4th guarantee a superior kicker? Oh that's right, it doesn't.


I agree.


If by essential you mean important then no I don't agree as it relates to the importance of other positions like QB, WR, TE, RB, OL, DL, LB, & DB.

You know who K and P are more important than? Other special teamers except for possibly KR and PR. The most useless players on any team are special teamers who don't regularly touch the ball or play another position on offense or defense.

Yours is certainly a popular position; lots of fans -- and some coaches -- have little respect for special teams contributions.

In the NFL, by most models, special teams accounts for about 15% of wins and losses, i.e. the best special teams will win at least an extra game during the season and the worst special teams will lose at least an extra game. For the Pats last year, their awful special teams clearly kept them out of the playoffs. By DVOA, if the Pats instead of having had the worst special teams they had had the best, they would have moved from #15 to #8 in team DVOA rankings. Their record would likely have improved from 8-9 to 10-7 and they would have been in the playoffs.

But making the best of your argument would be to agree with the above but claim that special teams performance can be measured as outlined but special teams performance is chaotic and hence not very predictive.

Sort of like fumbles vs fumbles lost. Propensity to fumble is predictive of future problems, but fumble recovery rate is not predictive of future fumble recoveries. The ball bounces funnily.

I believe the reason that many teams don't invest in special teams is because they believe it is mostly chaotic and hence unpredictable. Belichick obviously is in the camp that believes otherwise. How much of special teams contribution is not chaotic and hence predictive is still a matter of debate among modelers.

So though it is not ridiculous to seek competitive advantage through investing in special teams, it is controversial.

 

[Ring 6]

Were you getting your data? The thin air? I counted from a list provided by NFL.com.

There were many more than you list but in any event half the Ks at the start of last year were drafted and half were UDFA. You just admitted that at least twice as many UDFAs were needed to produce the same number of Ks. So it’s more than twice as effective to draft. Case closed.

 

[Joker]

He's a LIAR...every day, every post...lie after lie