Instant Reaction: Your Patriots 2023 Draft Grade

[DarrylS]

Oh, Ya. This Dude is ecstatic that he sat there in KC through day 1 and did not get picked. So, he went home.

But, you're the same folks that are happy that Brandon has run gas up to $5 a gallon too.

Why would he stay?? Is it some unwritten law?? He was disappointed prior, but happy when he was picked.. perhaps that will motivate him even. more.
The issue here was your belief that something viral sans verification was not true.. the need to verify info is never more evident as it is here.

 

[moosekill]

I agree with this assessment Gonzales easy A, White is a B I am even OK with the S/LB and give that one a B-
But trading up for the kicker and drafting 2 OK guard prospects was very disappointing when there is a desperate need for a top tier OT.
The late round lottery picks were fine.
Both TEs on roster have only 1 year left on contract
Not coming away with even a single rb, OT or TE is not good.

Too much Bill trying to outsmart everyone else

I give it a C*

How many rb’s were you hoping they would carry this year. Some of the posters on this board forget the rosters are limited. The team needs a kicker, the team needs a punter, the team doesn’t need an 8th wr or 6 rb. I was hoping they would grab a te but they don’t need one, they already have two very good ones. From the second round on less than 1/2 the players end up making the team let alone contributing. My guess is both the kicker and punter will be on the team next season.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

I liked the draft. Did it fill all the holes on the roster? No. I feel that the team laid the foundation for rebuilding what can only be described as an average roster. Will it work? Given what a crap shoot the draft is, I hope so. Go Pats!

 

[BelizePats]

This was a good draft overall but I can't shake the feeling that we wasted some opportunities in rounds 3 and 4.

 

[Bill Lee]

This board is delusional. Gonzalez was a home run. Other than the late round fliers we took positions that weren’t a need or we reached. C- at best.

Let's talk metrics before talking evaluation. Roughly:

• -Roughly 10% of drafted players have successful, multi year careers.
• -1 starter out of a draft is average, 2 is good, 3 is outstanding

Setting aside the kickers, this draft has a good chance to give us two, by year two, I'd say - the two first picks.
There's a reasonable chance that one of the others will break through to become a starter by year 3, particularly on the IOL.
So it is looking good.
Injuries, as in all things NFL, will be the largest factor.

My take on it is in-line with BTTA, and even more pessimistic.

The source I've quoted before says

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

So I'd say getting one player above replacement value is good, two would be outstanding.

Things like BSPN and fantasy over-hype the draft, IMO.

 

[duc359]

They probably would have been better off drafting a third TE with one of those picks. With all the special teams first players Bill brought in, in free agency a 3rd TE seemed to have a lot better chance of making the team and eventually contributing than Bolden and Speed.

Pats 2nd UDFA is a blocking TE, and given the crazy deals handed out for FA so far for some teams there will be salary cap cuts and camp cuts to filter thru.

 

[TomPatriot]

My take on it is in-line with BTTA, and even more pessimistic.

The source I've quoted before says

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

So I'd say getting one player above replacement value is good, two would be outstanding.

Things like BSPN and fantasy over-hype the draft, IMO.

If you get four quality players out of a draft, that’s amazing.

Roseman and Caserio traded up to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys in this draft. Bill trades down (mostly), using volume to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys.

Getting most draft picks right is a ridiculous standard. Ozzie, Beane, and a few others have done pretty damn welland even they miss most of the time.

 

[duc359]

This was a good draft overall but I can't shake the feeling that we wasted some opportunities in rounds 3 and 4.

I think expectations from never NFL paid guys like Kiper, and poor results on O last 3 years set expectations. Even if we got a stud X WR like Higgins in a deal with the same coaching, plans, OL from last year, it would not make much difference. But look at Mac. Accurate rhythm guy. Nice RB. Good OL and OC added with better plans, and a influx of rough/tough/big IOL's. It's a shift to being a top 5 team in terms of run v pass, and play action, short drops, which means if your OL isn't good at 7 step drops, you don't call many of those plays. Red zone should be better with the influx in FA already. Will they be explosive? No. Can they win from 14 down - doubtful. But with the ST being top 5 as I expect and an attacking D in the 6-10 range for points allowed it's well better than last year. We find out if Mac is the guy, with next year being a better QB draft. 2 of the other 3 QB's in our division are likely to not be playing anymore by '25, or be a shell, and Allen puts himself into too much danger, so he could be reduced by '25. The Pats won't be a doormat. Chances of winning a SB in the next 30 years - good. Next 2? Highly doubtful. Been a fan since '66, you Brady era guys have very high expectations. It's a process.

 

[Bill Lee]

If you get four quality players out of a draft, that’s amazing.

'Quality players' is a bit ambiguous. Starter? Role player? Special teamer?

I guess I prefer the term 'above replacement value', meaning the new guy will be good enough to push someone else off a typical NFL roster.

Roseman and Caserio traded up to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys in this draft. Bill trades down (mostly), using volume to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys.

True, but Caserio messed up next year's draft to do it, in a season when they don't project to be very good, so gave away high draft picks.

Getting most draft picks right is a ridiculous standard. Ozzie, Beane, and a few others have done pretty damn well and even they miss most of the time.

Ozzie can't even point to great team success. The one SB a long time ago, a few playoff runs. Good drafts, but not good overall team building in my book.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Glad that they didn’t get a chance to draft Van Ness, other than the kid’s girlfriend.



Hard to blame papa. That is an A+ booty.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'm giving them a B. An A would have been something to shake up the currently negative status quo for the team. A trade for Jeudy+, for example.
I'm not saying they SHOULD HAVE done that, but I am facing a reality with this team that they're going to have to play top-notch to sniff a playoff chance.
For the draft itself, I thought this a really bad year to be looking for the homerun, particularly regarding offensive difference makers. I just didn't see it.

Regarding the draft:
Round 1: the pick of Gonzo was obvious. Elite athletic traits and exactly what they're secondary was missing. They had to take him. Couldn't have gone better for them that Gonzo was there. What that also meant, however, was that the other two positions of need weren't going to get a major bandaid. The ONLY receivers I saw as obvious 53-man players for the Pats went within a few picks from Gonzo: Addison, JSN, and Flowers. I would have been higher on Johnston if not for my Harry PTSD.

Beyond that, I just didn't see it (even those guys didn't scream "1st ROUND!" to me). OT? Meh. The choice was Jones or Gonzo, and they would have had to be gonzo to go with Jones, quite frankly. They needed this corner and he fell to them.


Round 2: By the time Round 2 pick came in, I was hoping for BPA. There was no one there who screamed at me. White wasn't on my radar - at all. I don't have a ton of time (big deadline met, yay!), so I limit my reading, watching, etc., typically following BGC's board - and I never saw White there.
The only time I heard his name was when some others here - Zappe was one - kept bringing him up.

When the Pats picked the guy, I caught up. Wowza. This is a steal, I think. He's only been playing DL for a short while and he looks absolutely powerful on his movements. There's a focus there with every punch. I loved his attitude, too. Seems like all business. Apparently, Judon's been talking with him as well, and Judon is A+.

Nothing against Nolan Smith, but I heard everyone raving about the Eagles getting him - I'd take White over him, hands' down. Edge rushers keep getting smaller, it seems, and the league will adjust to take advantage of that soon enough.


Round 3: Mapu? Never heard of him. That's obviously on me, not the guy or the pick. I've heard almost diametrically-opposing things. "Athletic freak" vs. "No long-term speed" (what's his 40?). This is a future insurance pick, both because Dugger is a FA next year (sign him, d%#*!@t!) and because Phillips is 31 years old, and at a position where drop-off can be fast and furious.

Wouldn't have been my pick, certainly, but this is a wait and see.


Round 4/5: Unlike others here, I quite enjoyed most of this round. IOL is a weird thing. The guys I wanted - Tipmann...- were gone by the Pats 3rd pick, and after the first few, IOLs tend to blend together into a swirl of uncertainty. Popovich was a good OL coach here, so I"m glad the Pats had some insight to what I thought wasn't an urgent need, but was certainly something to start working on (C). Centers tend to have traits that are almost impossible for casual watchers to see, so if Pop gave his approval for Andrews, as I suspect, I'm fine with the pick.

I love Sow's physical attitude, know nothing about the third IOL taken.

Now, let me run 180 against the grain here on the Kicker: I love that they did what they needed to do and got the kid from Maryland, who is at or near the top of every list for kicking. I've heard that he has a "meh" leg, to which I call bullsh!t, then watched film of him putting the ball through with room to spare from 59.

His kickoffs are typically high and deep. He hits game-winners regularly. This is a needed and solid pick. All for it. SF had already taken a kicker in the third - thinking you won't lose such an obvious need because no one will nab him early is foolish when we're talking about a part of the draft where most picks will never meaningfully contribute.

We're spoiled by decades of Adam and Gost - good kickers are HUGE for a team. Yes, Folk has been accurate, but watching last year, Folk wasn't the same guy at the end, and he should NOT be doing kickoffs. Killed the Pats in the Buffalo game. Teams that take things like this for granted will lose games they should win.

This kid (and the punter they grabbed later) might be the most important picks of the draft outside of the first two.
For the rest, we'll see. WR was a crapshoot after just a couple of picks, imo, and they took shots with a couple - one a boom or bust, the other, the typical possible slot guy. The two big CBs taken late...like the traits, like the Deion connection (I love what he's doing down there), but again, we'll see.

Honestly, I wonder if the Pats tried to get up and get Kelee Ringo if they wanted another long corner. Can't believe he lasted until the 4th!
My surprises: no TEs grabbed earlier. Class was deep and strong, supposedly. I wanted Washington based on his physical traits and love of blocking. It's not a "need" this year - Gesicki and Henry are a really great 1-2 TE pairing.

My other surprise was that they went for Mapu (really a tweener/box safety) with Simpson and Henley sitting there. Also, I don't know who grabbed To'oTo'o, but I think they got a steal that late in the draft.

I"ll add that I'm THRILLED that Malik Cunningham was grabbed as an UDFA. I love this kid's attitude. He's my hope for sticking around, wherever and however they can make him fit. Athletic skills to burn. Just love this kid.

So, overall, an A would only get there if they did something to change the dynamic of the division/conference right now. I don't even know how that would have been possible, but still.

Good draft.

 

[Zuma]

A - Round 1 • Pick 17 (17) • CB Christian Gonzalez
A - Round 2 • Pick 15 (46) • EDGE Keion White
C - Round 3 • Pick 13 (76) • LB Marte Mapu
C - Round 4 • Pick 5 (107) • C Jake Andrews
A - Round 4 • Pick 10 (112) • K Chad Ryland
A - Round 4 • Pick 15 (117) • G Sidy Sow
B - Round 5 • Pick 9 (144) • G Atonio Mafi
A - Round 6 • Pick 10 (187) • WR Kayshon Boutte
A - Round 6 • Pick 15 (192) • P Bryce Baringer
B - Round 6 • Pick 33 (210) • WR Demario Douglas
C - Round 6 • Pick 37 (214) • DB Ameer Speed
B - Round 7 • Pick 28 (245) • CB Isaiah Bolden

B Grade

 

[1960Pats]

There's nobody here or anywhere else that knows for sure how these players will pan out. As @farn mentioned earlier it takes time to evaluate draft picks. I like that they had 12 picks simply because we don't know for sure about any of these players

Right now I'm liking some of the names, though I'm disappointed that they didn't grab one or two more players named Jones. I'm happy that we didn't get anyone with an apostrophe in their name or initials for a first name.
Marte Mapu sounds great with the accent on the last syllables. MarTE MaPU
Sidy Sow is the perfect name for a guard in the NYFL.
Atonio Mafi is missing an "n" in his first name and it helps.
But my absolute favorite is Ameer Speed. He must be a mere speed guy.

 

[duc359]

If you get four quality players out of a draft, that’s amazing.

Roseman and Caserio traded up to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys in this draft. Bill trades down (mostly), using volume to try to ensure they get at least 2 high quality guys.

Getting most draft picks right is a ridiculous standard. Ozzie, Beane, and a few others have done pretty damn welland even they miss most of the time.

Right. The media hates BB because he's not giving inside dope to them, plus it riles up fans and generates more $ when frauds like Bertrand just take the negative stance like labeling BB as "petty" for dealing to #17 so the Steelers could get LT Jones before the Jets.

Given his pick values in all his drafts, he has outperformed - even conceding mistakes like Harry, Brace, and a bunch more. He pretty much invented the UDFA thing almost all teams now emulate, his trades have been good, his roster poaching has been good. Back in 2006 his draft got killed because they didn't factor in the Welker and Moss deals. He saw the rule changes and acted.

This team will not go to the AFCCG. Right now we cannot compete with explosive passing offenses by drafting WR in a substandard draft. But, we were 24th in offensive rushing yards last year. We will be 8th or better this season. 20th in passing yds last year, that may get up to 15, but ToP - we were 25th last year, I see #9-14 range this year. We were last in net punting in '22, could be top 6 this year.

I think BB will focus on D, and leave the offense to the other Bill. Haters gonna hate.

 

[Steve102]

I didn't love Ryland in the 4th. I didn't love Ameer Speed, with three college starts. That's pretty picky for me to ***** about him in the 6th. I loved the Gonzalez pick, like everyone else. I am all in on Baringer too, he's a field flipper, so that's excellent.

 

[Patsgofor4]

What are the two of you waiting for? Do it!

 

[Patsgofor4]

I didn't love Ryland in the 4th. I didn't love Ameer Speed, with three college starts. That's pretty picky for me to ***** about him in the 6th. I loved the Gonzalez pick, like everyone else. I am all in on Baringer too, he's a field flipper, so that's excellent.

Speed is an obvious late day 3 special teams pick by Bill. Good size and speed and more than 500 special teams snaps in college.

 

[Betterthanmost]

A+.
Have no idea what the opening post is talking. I can envision what they are looking for. They want serious, head by the grind stone and matured players. They got that. I am thrilled.

 

[1960Pats]

I think they just didn't like the OTs beyond Johnson. They were not comfortable with Broderick at 14 and they just didn't like anyone afterwards very much. Not saying they hated all the other OTs and thought they're all trash, just not worth a forced investment.

Third rounder was a bit of a head scratcher, we have at least 3 of him on the roster for cheap, not exactly the hardest guys to find.

Fourth round onwards I'm not nitpicking, if one guy can play out of the lot, that's a win regardless of position--and it looks like they can realistically get multiple hits this time, so I'll take it.

Counting the 2023 draft this is how the roster looks by round;
5 - 1sts (one drafted by Miami)
7 - 2nds (one drafted by Miami)
5 - 3rds
8 - 4ths
6 - 5ths
8 - 6ths
1 - 7th

This only takes into account players who were drafted by the AFCE teams. Players from outside the AFCE, like Judon, aren't included in the numbers.

 

[duc359]

I didn't love Ryland in the 4th. I didn't love Ameer Speed, with three college starts. That's pretty picky for me to ***** about him in the 6th. I loved the Gonzalez pick, like everyone else. I am all in on Baringer too, he's a field flipper, so that's excellent.

Speed is for ST, 518 snaps in his career. If he sticks, he'll play on the D as often as Slater as a WR. In 4 years, there is a 94% chance neither of us will remember the guy. Honestly, in a weak draft did you expected a rib roast at this point?