Content Post Words on things I watched, read & heard II

[upstater1]

2011-Present

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1drv.ms

I don't "rank" prospects like 1 - 15. Theres nothing wrong with that at all. Its much easier but this little system has helped me be inline with the NFL in terms of value for almost 15 years now. Ive done well with a good hit rate with very few bust or outliers. Its conservative but efficient. I've done pretty well overall since 2011. I'm probably stronger in some areas (positions) but think I've done really well everywhere over the years. You can see/jusge for yourself on the tabs below.

I watch as much film as I can (A22, broadcast) to identify specific traits, movements, skill sets etc to come up with a film grade before finalizing it with an athletic grade from testing (priorities *shuttles, 3C, jumps*) to average out their value. Although not the end all, production matters. That along with age, background is factored in. As I've said before traits that translate with plus testing and production usually = good players.

I try to get as specific as possible bc value is so important in the draft. That said I always allow myself some wiggle room as I would in a real life scenario. A 1st RD grade for me is 8.50. If I have a prospect at 8.30 and another person I trust has a 1st on him I'm not going to argue 95% of the time. So anyone with a grade/value of "8.30" or higher is fair game in RD1.

9 1st RD Grades (Robinson, Carter, Skoronski, Gonzo, DeeboSpoon, Porter, Wright, Wilson and Anderson) but I have 8.30 or higher on more than a few guys (11 I believe).


Updating PTP big time next two days. I have 15 or so names I'm adding and a few im taking off. Just been busy but by tomorrow night it'll be updated. Again any names you think I should add or take off lmk.

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1drv.ms

I'll go through each position group tomorrow. Any questions just ask. About Pats draft or grades or we.

Two things stand out for me

The very deep DE class, seems deepest of all the positions.

Second, the high rating you have for Jartavius Martin. Was hoping we'd get him in the 4th round, but if other scouts have him that high, as you do, he won't last.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Two things stand out for me

The very deep DE class, seems deepest of all the positions.

Rush/Edge, TE, RB are all top heavy and deep. Getting feelings of 2017 all over again but it's a great class.

Second, the high rating you have for Jartavius Martin. Was hoping we'd get him in the 4th round, but if other scouts have him that high, as you do, he won't last.

Saf is one of the weakest positions so I'd be shocked if he wasn't a top 3-5 SAF taken. Sometimes I don't agree with the results I get even though it's my system but I think he belongs at the top of this class.

Ok I'm pumped. Making changes to the PTP board as we speak. I'll post another link before the Bruins game! LFG B'S!!

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

2011-Present

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1drv.ms

I don't "rank" prospects like 1 - 15. Theres nothing wrong with that at all. Its much easier but this little system has helped me be inline with the NFL in terms of value for almost 15 years now. Ive done well with a good hit rate with very few bust or outliers. Its conservative but efficient. I've done pretty well overall since 2011. I'm probably stronger in some areas (positions) but think I've done really well everywhere over the years. You can see/jusge for yourself on the tabs below.

I watch as much film as I can (A22, broadcast) to identify specific traits, movements, skill sets etc to come up with a film grade before finalizing it with an athletic grade from testing (priorities *shuttles, 3C, jumps*) to average out their value. Although not the end all, production matters. That along with age, background is factored in. As I've said before traits that translate with plus testing and production usually = good players.

I try to get as specific as possible bc value is so important in the draft. That said I always allow myself some wiggle room as I would in a real life scenario. A 1st RD grade for me is 8.50. If I have a prospect at 8.30 and another person I trust has a 1st on him I'm not going to argue 95% of the time. So anyone with a grade/value of "8.30" or higher is fair game in RD1.

9 1st RD Grades (Robinson, Carter, Skoronski, Gonzo, DeeboSpoon, Porter, Wright, Wilson and Anderson) but I have 8.30 or higher on more than a few guys (11 I believe).


Updating PTP big time next two days. I have 15 or so names I'm adding and a few im taking off. Just been busy but by tomorrow night it'll be updated. Again any names you think I should add or take off lmk.

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1drv.ms

I'll go through each position group tomorrow. Any questions just ask. About Pats draft or grades or we.

I got a few PM. Updated and updating link as we speak. Here it is again if anyone needs it.

This is gold, BGC. Thanks for your hard work.

One thing I noticed from last year is that it looks to have been a very good value year for quarterbacks. Pickett was the only one taken in the first two rounds -- and he's looked very good to me. There seem to have been some very good value pickups after that. Purdy, obviously, but Zappe too. Ridder is about to start for the Falcons and even Skylar Thompson didn't look too bad in a tough situation.

Of course, not many of these guys have had much time on the field yet, but it makes me think that perhaps the quality of quarterback out there each year may be less variable than the media buzz about it being a "good" or "bad" year for quarterbacks and that it's demand rather than supply that leads to a deluge of quarterbacks being taken early.

Pretty please take Van Ness at 13. That would be glorious.

Regulars or even lurkers out there paying attention. Lmk who you think should or shouldn't be on.


@WaterfallJumper ik you have been away from the process for the most part but know you still pay attention.


@long distance @scott99

draft forum guys speak up

I'll update it up until the 1st pick most likely. Just like last year. Marcus Jones was a late add. So screen shot it then. I remember @venecol saying something last year so give me up until the 1st pick.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I got a few PM. Updated and updating link as we speak. Here it is again if anyone needs it.


Regulars or even lurkers out there paying attention. Lmk who you think should or shouldn't be on.


@WaterfallJumper ik you have been away from the process for the most part but know you still pay attention.


@long distance @scott99

draft forum guys speak up

I'll update it up until the 1st pick most likely. Just like last year. Marcus Jones was a late add. So screen shot it then. I remember @venecol saying something last year so give me up until the 1st pick.

Fantastic, as always. I'm pretty late to it this year, but you helped me get a huge head start. Lots of intriguing players. I'm excited for tonight and this weekend!

When I get a break from work, I'll tell you all the things you did wrong--I mean, I'll offer some ideas and critique.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Fantastic, as always. I'm pretty late to it this year, but you helped me get a huge head start. Lots of intriguing players. I'm excited for tonight and this weekend!

When I get a break from work, I'll tell you all the things you did wrong--I mean, I'll offer some ideas and critique.

Nice. About to hit it again at lunch.


If anyone is new this is made up but testing #'s, general traits we look for and I value the prospects as I think we would in the room.

 

[captain stone]

Good... I didn't want ANY of the aforementioned names except for Broderick Jones anyway.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Nice. About to hit it again at lunch.


If anyone is new this is made up but testing #'s, general traits we look for and I value the prospects as I think we would in the room.

Honestly, I can't think of any obvious misses, given that we look for a specific type and have fewer names on the board than most teams. I like Mingo more than you do, but that's okay. I'm also higher on Dexter and Diaby than you are, and lower on Porter, but those are pretty much my only quibbles. All the other names are in my (admittedly casual) mock drafts. Excellent job.

We'll see how things turn out. I'm curious this year, more than in past years, since we have new blood in the front office. They proved last year that they're interested in speed and athleticism more than the previous regime. Maybe I should move Turner up in my projections, since he can run with Hill and Waddle. Hmm.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

More a look at more I'm happy. Added some names deleted a few. Have slot for value but we're in good shape.

@Ian can I start a separate thread giving thoughts on positions, prospects by round etc related to NEP?

@Dingleberry 100-110 names/prospects for 80% hit rate for 50G anything over 80% is additional 50G per hit and 0 if i dont hit 80%?
Check in before 1 overall is announced? Say 755pm eastern to screenshot?

 

[Love The Drake]

Dog Kleinman claims to watch the Niners who are looking at Lamar Jackson tonight.

 

[Dingleberry]

More a look at more I'm happy. Added some names deleted a few. Have slot for value but we're in good shape.

@Ian can I start a separate thread giving thoughts on positions, prospects by round etc related to NEP?

@Dingleberry 100-110 names/prospects for 80% hit rate for 50G anything over 80% is additional 50G per hit and 0 if i dont hit 80%?
Check in before 1 overall is announced? Say 755pm eastern to screenshot?

If I may be so bold to answer for @Ian while he is busy today knitting me a new Russian flag, yes please do those separate threads. I will be reading them for sure!

As for the other item...I want to be clear on the bet. Are you saying 80% of your top 100 will be selected in the top 100?

 

[Ian]

More a look at more I'm happy. Added some names deleted a few. Have slot for value but we're in good shape.

@Ian can I start a separate thread giving thoughts on positions, prospects by round etc related to NEP?

Absolutely

 

[patfanken]

I have a quick draft question. Every draft I moved down to pick up a and extra 2nd and 3rd ended up being among my favorites. But I'm mostly just guessing the values. So just how far would that Pats have to drop in the first in order to pick up an extra 2nd without having to give up our only third....according to the latest charts.

As for strategy? I've read were there were only 14 TRUE #1 worth picks in this years draft, while the next group of very good players will stretch to the 3rd round and is deep. One would think that if we can get a "true #1 pck" we should grab him regardless of position. But I would mind it a bit if we wound up with 4 of those 2nd tier players either

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Curious about the omission of Terrell Smith. Did I miss him in the CB/safety list, or did he not meet expectations? Thanks!

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Curious about the omission of Terrell Smith. Did I miss him in the CB/safety list, or did he not meet expectations? Thanks!

Thinking about adding him in the Saf space I have a slot available.

 

[VJCPatriot]

It's sad when the #1 rated prospect in the draft is a runningback... because these are no longer the days of the dominant runningback. Or could Bijan Robinson reverse that trend by himself?

I'd be happy with Will Levis or Anthony Richardson. I feel like both have a ton of upside and Houston might be willing to deal now that Stroud's stock has taken a big hit due to his poor 'cognitive' test performance. You can lock in Bryce Young at #1 overall now.

It looks like we can easily pick up a good corner or even edge rusher in round 2, so hopefully one of those comes to New England on Day2.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

If I may be so bold to answer for @Ian while he is busy today knitting me a new Russian flag, yes please do those separate threads. I will be reading them for sure!

As for the other item...I want to be clear on the bet. Are you saying 80% of your top 100 will be selected in the top 100?

Nope. I'm saying all have 80% of the prospects we draft on my board of no more than 100 prospects.

We draft 10 guys, 8 will be on my board. I average 4-5, most i hit was 7. It's not easy most media never hit past 2 or 3.

 

[Dingleberry]

Nope. I'm saying all have 80% of the prospects we draft on my board of no more than 100 prospects.

We draft 10 guys, 8 will be on my board. I average 4-5, most i hit was 7. It's not easy most media never hit past 2 or 3.

Your bet is fair, but I am going to alter it a little as $50k is much higher than other bettors have the potential to win in the other contest. I am going to lower the potential money to be won, but also increase your odds of winning.

You will post your 100 players.

40% or more of Pats picks are on your list (that's 4 of 10, 5 of 12) = $10k

50% or more = $20k

70% or more = $35k

Smaller winning potential, but now you don't get $0 if you are below 80%.

If you do manage above 80%, I will throw in a reach-around complete with a cupping of the balls. I would be that impressed.


If those terms are agreeable to you, send me your 100 before the draft begins. Don't come back with a counter offer. This is NOT a negotiation!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Your bet is fair, but I am going to alter it a little as $50k is much higher than other bettors have the potential to win in the other contest. I am going to lower the potential money to be won, but also increase your odds of winning.

You will post your 100 players.

40% or more of Pats picks are on your list (that's 4 of 10, 5 of 12) = $10k

50% or more = $20k

70% or more = $35k

Smaller winning potential, but now you don't get $0 if you are below 80%.

If you do manage above 80%, I will throw in a reach-around complete with a cupping of the balls. I would be that impressed.


If those terms are agreeable to you, send me your 100 before the draft begins. Don't come back with a counter offer. This is NOT a negotiation!

So if he loses the bet he pays you $100 but if he wins the bet you pay him 10, 20, or 35 grand? Umm are you going to mortgage your house to pay off that bet, doesn't seem like a good deal. LOL

BTW I have learned my lesson over the years. The Patriots never pick whom we think they'll pick. In 2023 there will be much cursing as BB trades down and picks a no name player who will just wash out of the league in a couple of years. Think the next Joejuan Williams or maybe he'll go for someone from Rutgers like Duron Harmon because they have a good lacrosse team or something like that.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

So if he loses the bet he pays you $100 but if he wins the bet you pay him 10, 20, or 35 grand? Umm are you going to mortgage your house to pay off that bet, doesn't seem like a good deal. LOL

BTW I have learned my lesson over the years. The Patriots never pick whom we think they'll pick. In 2023 there will be much cursing as BB trades down and picks a no name player who will just wash out of the league in a couple of years. Think the next Joejuan Williams or maybe he'll go for someone from Rutgers like Duron Harmon because they have a good lacrosse team or something like that.

I think he runs a "betting" thread. It's not real money from what I've seen.

. . . or if it is, then I need to get on that train so I can afford a new minivan to cart around all the kids. Our is 18 years old and rusting out.

 

[Dingleberry]

So if he loses the bet he pays you $100 but if he wins the bet you pay him 10, 20, or 35 grand? Umm are you going to mortgage your house to pay off that bet, doesn't seem like a good deal. LOL

BTW I have learned my lesson over the years. The Patriots never pick whom we think they'll pick. In 2023 there will be much cursing as BB trades down and picks a no name player who will just wash out of the league in a couple of years. Think the next Joejuan Williams or maybe he'll go for someone from Rutgers like Duron Harmon because they have a good lacrosse team or something like that.

He's betting with my "money", so it's definitely a nice deal for him. Just part of the casino contest here.

If this was the real world, the odds would have been more clearly defined and favored the house more, for sure.

And I wouldn't have thrown in the hand job. Maybe.