The optimistic case for Mac Jones

[Wozzy]

Yeah, pretty much, when in 21 seasons a quarterback plays in 10 Super Bowls, wins 7 (6 with game-winning drives), and is named MVP 5x... that's uniquely extraordinary.

You’re talking about the most exclusive club in football. It could be said the same teams and coaches keep finding themselves in the Super Bowl because they do. Deion Sanders and Charles Haley used to contract themselves out like mercenaries, they have lots of rings by moving from one favorite to the next. If Nick Foles can beat Brady it doesn’t take magic, it takes a complete team.

 

[Wozzy]

That's right, brother. The 2019 Bucs season was ruined by their QB. The 2020 Bucs season was made championship caliber by their QB.

He also led the NFL in passing and TD’s, that team had an extraordinary amount of talent before Tom arrived.

 

[Ian]

All of this stuff is anecdotal at best. We cannot tell how much smoke either of these guys put on these throws.

Sort of, but you could say that about Mac, but not Zappe. You can see Zappe's obviously trying to get a little bit of ooomph on that throw, especially when you see it from the end zone view.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Look back to the Baltimore game for a glimpse of Mac's upside, especially the scrambling and the fire he showed.

 

[Jim Beankie]

That's what I said, a single playoff win.

He also had 56% Completions, 5 INT's, 6.62 Yards Per Passing Attempt, 19 Sacks, 68.3 QB Rating... and oh yeah, 5 Fumbles. But he runs the ball a little and apparently thats more important than playoff success.

Justin Field is the next great future QB according to Crawdaddy, he only had 11 interceptions and 16 fumbles this season... but he is destined for greatness and Mac is hopeless. Do they award more points for rushing yards than actual points like fantasy football, I forget?

My goodness - apologies as I totally misread that.

 

[sean10mm]

I think this is a do or die season for Mac. If he bounces back under BOB then all is forgiven and Patricia was the villain a lot of us suspect he was. But if there's not a drastic improvement in 2023 suddenly they're shopping for the next guy again.

I do think Patricia was an almost uniquely bad OC in the modern era, but Mac still did worse in the areas he still had control over on top of that.

 

[Ian]

I think this is a do or die season for Mac. If he bounces back under BOB then all is forgiven and Patricia was the villain a lot of us suspect he was. But if there's not a drastic improvement in 2023 suddenly they're shopping for the next guy again.

I do think Patricia was an almost uniquely bad OC in the modern era, but Mac still did worse in the areas he still had control over on top of that.

100% agree, I don't think they'll pick up the option at that price tag if he's just O.K., and it would be more likely than not he'd be dealt, and they'd probably have a competition between Zappe and a veteran in 2024, while also probably drafting someone else. Really hoping it doesn't come to that, but as you said, this is definitely going to be his most important year, and also the team for that matter, in terms of the future.

 

[VJCPatriot]

We had receivers running into each other, running the same routes. Coaches who ran a "Madden playbook" didn't adjust for what the other team did. Didn't even coach play action schemes

I would argue that the Madden playbook is better than whatever the hell Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were running!

 

[RodThePat]

He also led the NFL in passing and TD’s, that team have an extraordinary amount of talent before Tom arrived.

He didn't lead the NFL in TDs. All those passing yards and that extraordinary talent led them to a 7-9 record. Went from 15th in dropback EPA/Play and 18th in passing DVOA in 2019 to 5th and 3rd respectively in 2020 (including playoffs). Kinda seems like QB play was the defining factor there. This crusade to minimize QB impact in team performance is incredibly silly in 2023.

 

[Steve102]

I was there in 98/99/2000 and the environments were completely different. He was a rah-rah kind of guy, certainly didn't command the room the same way Bill did. Although, he was a super nice guy. I remember he also called me over one time after I went to pick up my tape recorder to ask where I was from, right after a press conference, and talked to me for a minute or so, which I always thought was cool. Good person, just wasn't ready for the chaos/egos he had to deal with there.

But like Bill, he learned from it, and good for him for the run he went on in Seattle. And more importantly, it was nice to see him overcome Wilson and get a little recognition last year even though they came up short. Certainly, nothing negative to say about him.

I am sure he's a good dude, and probably a good guy to be friends with, have a beer with.

 

[Wozzy]

He didn't lead the NFL in TDs. All those passing yards and that extraordinary talent led them to a 7-9 record. Went from 15th in dropback EPA/Play and 18th in passing DVOA in 2019 to 5th and 3rd respectively in 2020 (including playoffs). Kinda seems like QB play was the defining factor there. This crusade to minimize QB impact in team performance is incredibly silly in 2023.

Hahaha... yeah, you're right, Winston didn't lead the NFL in TD's in 2019; yards yes, TD's no... he was a mere 2nd place in passing TD's in the entire NFL.

I was way off

The Bucs had the best "weapons" in the NFL in 2019, and that was before Gronk and Fournette got there. They had a great young talented defense with young but talented CB's. They had the best DT room in the NFL and led run stopping for years in a row. They needed a starting OT, and some depth... but they were basically a turnkey team with resources.

They were the team I said pre-decision that Tom should go to. They were my preseason Super Bowl favorites once he committed there.

It's not a crusade to minimize QB impact, it's about staying in reality.

 

[crawhammer]

You’re talking about the most exclusive club in football.

Yeah, pretty much, when in 21 seasons a quarterback plays in 10 Super Bowls, wins 7 (6 with game-winning drives), and is named MVP 5x... that's uniquely extraordinary.

Brady's club isn't open for new members.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Hahaha... yeah, you're right, Winston didn't lead the NFL in TD's in 2019; yards yes, TD's no... he was a mere 2nd place in passing TD's in the entire NFL.

I was way off

The Bucs had the best "weapons" in the NFL in 2019, and that was before Gronk and Fournette got there. They had a great young talented defense with young but talented CB's. They had the best DT room in the NFL and led run stopping for years in a row. They needed a starting OT, and some depth... but they were basically a turnkey team with resources.

They were the team I said pre-decision that Tom should go to. They were my preseason Super Bowl favorites once he committed there.

It's not a crusade to minimize QB impact, it's about staying in reality.

I think this is a fair assessment. The Bucs were fairly loaded with a lot of rookie deal stars and hit huge with Wirfs and Winfield. Then adding Gronk and AB really tipped the balance.

All that said, I think that puts then in a tier of really good teams (not including QB) along with the Saints and Packers. Those teams also had a lot of talent around Brees and Rodgers. I don’t think the Bucs were necessarily better than those teams top to bottom, and they weren’t a real “super team” but they were damn good and obviously good enough to go the distance with an elite QB. The 2021 team was really snakebitten by injuries and probably would have repeated had they not lost so many key players down the stretch.

However, I don't think the Bucs had the best weapons in the NFL with Evans/Godwin/Howard. That's a very good trio, but it's hyperbole to act like a lot of teams don't have a few very good skill players. Evans and Godwin are both fringe stars...not really all-pro types, and Howard wasn't even being used much....Brate is closer to a JAG than a star.

 

[crawhammer]

He also led the NFL in passing and TD’s, that team had an extraordinary amount of talent before Tom arrived.

Winston led the NFL in INTs (33!) not TDs. The NFL leader in passing TDs that season was the quarterback who you say "can't throw the ball"... Lamar Jackson. You know, the NFL MVP, as a quarterback.

 

[crawhammer]

Look back to the Baltimore game for a glimpse of Mac's upside, especially the scrambling and the fire he showed.

0 TDs & 3 INTs. This is the game we're looking at for "upside"?

 

[crawhammer]

They were the team I said pre-decision that Tom should go to. They were my preseason Super Bowl favorites once he committed there.

Even you think it's about Brady. You just said so. Excellent post!

 

[Kasmir]

Brady didn't play with great WRs for the majority of his time in New England. But the best duo he ever had in his entire career was Moss and Welker in 2007.

The best WR he ever played with was Moss by a wide margin. Unfortunately his time with Moss was very short... the historic 2007 season, 2009 when coming back from the ACL, and a few games in 2010. Had Brady had 5-7 full seasons with Moss he would have won more NFL MVPs.

One of the more underrated aspects of Brady's career is the incredible passing numbers he put up with less than elite WR talent.

You are agreeing with me. Moss was of course great, probably the GOAT wide receiver. Welker was a creature of Brady. Both Godwin and Evans are better than Welker.

 

[crawhammer]

I suspect the #TeamZappe crowd aren't really pro-Zappe all that much...they're more #TeamAnyoneButMac. That's fair. Mac needs to prove himself this year or the Patriots need to move on.

You're leaving out the most likely scenario. Mac and the offense look better under O'Brien. Mac throws for 3900, 26 TDs, 12 INTs and a 90 passer rating. They finish 10-7 and get bounced in the wild card by a better team with a better quarterback.

Is that enough for Mac to prove himself? It will be for those saying right now that he's the unquestioned starter with upside. It won't be for those saying right now that his ceiling is too low and he won't be competitive against the better teams with better quarterbacks.

With that scenario you won't have movement from either side and similar debates will rage on about what the team should do about their quarterback. It's generally the oldest, most common debate going.

 

[Kasmir]

Other than Brady replaced undisciplined QB play with elite, clutch QB play. Other than he also recruited several key players to their Super Bowl run. Other than he brought an all time winning confidence to a franchise with the worst winning percentage in professional team sports.

Did he have teammates? Yes. Were they a factor? Yes. Coaching staff? Yes, obviously. But all of it doesn't amount to a Super Bowl championship without one person... Tom Brady. Which is also obvious.

If that were true, why didn't the Pats win a Superbowl with Brady in 2019? That team had a historically great defense by DVOA but Brady's excellence wasn't enough, especially given the loss of the GOAT tight end and after Kraft canned Antonio Brown. Tampa already had vastly better receivers than the Pats did, and Brady's mystique allowed him to help recruit Gronk and Antonio Brown. The 2020 Tampa weapons he had were the best in his career. And Tampa already had an excellent defense.

Brady wasn't enough to save the 2019 Pats, but in Tampa he had extraordinary weapons and the 5th ranked defense. If in 2019 he had Gronk and Brown, the Pats would likely have won another Superbowl because they had a great defense.

 

[crawhammer]

You are agreeing with me. Moss was of course great, probably the GOAT wide receiver. Welker was a creature of Brady. Both Godwin and Evans are better than Welker.

2007 Moss & Welker > 2020 Evans & Godwin

Moss & Welker (2007)

210 receptions
2668 yards
31 TDs

Evans & Godwin (2020)

135 receptions
1846 yards
20 TDs

I like Godwin better than Evans. Godwin has more versatility, makes tougher catches in traffic, and is much better after the catch. I still like Evans, he's a great down field and red zone target. But he's a bit of a **** and he was terrible for most of 2022.

Welker is a bit underrated because he never won a Super Bowl and he had that huge drop in SB 46. But he had a handful of monstrous seasons out of the slot with Brady and he was tough as nails.

Welker is arguably the greatest WR in franchise history. Moss was sensational in 2007 but his time in NE was way too short. Edelman and Stanley Morgan are the other WRs you're looking at for that honor.