Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[Ian]

I don't feel they fell apart at the end of this year. They went 3-5 and did get outplayed in the first Bills game, but the losses to the Vikings, Raiders, and Cinci were all tainted by horrible inexplicable calls, and this last game was 2 KO returns plus 11 points of bad calls. Should have won all 4 of those games. Yes, we made mistakes in those games that need to be corrected, but we're competitive. There's some similarities to the 2000 team, and the next season we won a SB.

I agree. Basically the Cincinnati game they were knocking on the door and lost the ball. Had the fiasco at the end of the Raiders game. Had the two kickoff returns Sunday. Three wins they could've had and they were competitive against two potential AFC Championship teams. People can downplay those, but as you said, these are what-ifs that will be frustrating all the way through the offseason.

 

[Ian]

I forgot about Caley. Bill could get around getting rid of his buddy by giving Caley the OC role but having Patricia behind Caley with his arm up his arse moving his lips. I don't think anyone would notice.

Actually, didn't Caley refuse to renew his contract? Nvm.

That's not the case. Caley is actually a pretty smart guy and there are a lot of people who felt the fact he was passed over certainly added to an already frustrating situation. It's too bad he wasn't given an opportunity for the role, and that situation is probably one of the ones I'm most curious about. If you watch some of the "Sights and Sounds", he was pretty active on the sideline with the offense all season. Sort of hoping that's a positive sign moving forward, as it would be nice to have him there behind whoever being groomed so they have some continuity should they hire O'Brien and he moves on.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

If Bill retains Matt and we have another year like this year then he's gone.

I just don't see him doing that. He has to know what we all do.

He's killing his legacy with these outside the box decisions(cam newton then Patricia). The points scored this year by the offense was pathetic. He can put together a defense but the other two phases were junk.

If cam accord and Patricia are backing leading those two phases it's end of story on the last part of his coaching career.

 

[venecol]

Almost no coach or GM ever wins every single year and never has down periods. Certainly not for over 20 years.
Experiencing short term average results for the first time in 20+ years doesn’t make you bad.
The league is designed to drive everyone to .500. Staying on top longer than anyone ever has and pulling the plug, then being average for 3 years is not failure or incompetence.

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

It's going to be tough. I don't know if another .500 season would be enough, or if an early playoff exit would also potentially be the tipping point. Sort of feels like he's backed into a little bit of a corner but the expectation should be a significant amount spent on free agency, and hopefully retaining guys like Jakobi Meyers, and Jonathan Jones, while potentially adding a significant weapon or two on offense and adding depth in the secondary.

Looking back at this season, one thing that stands out is the fact that they were essentially in every game, which as I said in another thread is a testament to the fact he's still near the top of his game in terms of game-planning, etc. The drop off this season came on the offensive side of the ball and special teams, with both hopefully being addressed this offseason.

You got to keep in mind they faced so many crap teams and lucked out against backup qbs. You get to do that because your record the previous year was subpar.

 

[Ian]

He's killing his legacy with these outside the box decisions(cam newton then Patricia). The points scored this year by the offense was pathetic. He can put together a defense but the other two phases were junk.

If cam accord and Patricia are backing leading those two phases it's end of story on the last part of his coaching career.

Newton (2020) he didn't have much of a choice. Obviously Brady had gone, so they didn't really have anyone. I'm still surprised at how it went from being Stidham being the guy (reports of them being really high on him "inside the building") to suddenly Newton showing up in June and Stidham not even really putting up much of a fight in camp. Obviously, a completely different situation than we saw a year later when Mac showed up. And the fact Stidham never got an opportunity when Newton was struggling is still surprising, which clearly means something had transpired that ultimately kept him on the bench. Just bizarre.

 

[venecol]

Almost no coach or GM ever wins every single year and never has down periods. Certainly not for over 20 years.
Experiencing short term average results for the first time in 20+ years doesn’t make you bad.
The league is designed to drive everyone to .500. Staying on top longer than anyone ever has and pulling the plug, then being average for 3 years is not failure or incompetence.

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

 

[Ian]

You got to keep in mind they faced so many crap teams and lucked out against backup qbs. You get to do that because your record the previous year was subpar.

You play who you play, obviously, you have no control over that and it's a bad argument because you could negate much of the entire 20-years due to the AFC East argument that people make all the time - which I feel like all of us hate. It's not our fault those other teams were terrible. It is what it is.

And bad coaches have games where they look clueless and the team isn't even competitive. That really was never the case this year.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Newton (2020) he didn't have much of a choice. Obviously Brady had gone, so they didn't really have anyone. I'm still surprised at how it went from being Stidham being the guy (reports of them being really high on him "inside the building") to suddenly Newton showing up in June and Stidham not even really putting up much of a fight in camp. Obviously, a completely different situation than we saw a year later when Mac showed up. And the fact Stidham never got an opportunity when Newton was struggling is still surprising, which clearly means something had transpired that ultimately kept him on the bench. Just bizarre.

I guess the point is transition plans have blown. Brady to Newton then McDaniels to Patricia and he overlooked a legit guy this year (tight end coach) in favor of Patricia. Bb has been a yr late on these things

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

Maybe a guy named Brady

 

[Ian]

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

Yes, we know. Tom is gone. It is what it is. Rather than grab another veteran, he's thinking long-term and trying to rebuild with a young roster.

 

[Ian]

I guess the point is transition plans have blown. Brady to Newton then McDaniels to Patricia and he overlooked a legit guy this year (tight end coach) in favor of Patricia. Bb has been a yr late on these things

They also lost a ton of talent in the coaching ranks, which was a big factor. Hopefully, that gets restocked this offseason but I agree, that's absolutely been an issue.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

You play who you play, obviously, you have no control over that and it's a bad argument because you could negate much of the entire 20-years due to the AFC East argument that people make all the time - which I feel like all of us hate. It's not our fault those other teams were terrible. It is what it is.

And bad coaches have games where they look clueless and the team isn't even competitive. That really was never the case this year.

Point is they are not playing the division winner schedule the following season. Of course you have the rotating division opponent and your own division. I remember every year we'd have to play Peyton Manning or mahomes.

 

[venecol]

That's not the case. Caley is actually a pretty smart guy and there are a lot of people who felt the fact he was passed over certainly added to an already frustrating situation. It's too bad he wasn't given an opportunity for the role, and that situation is probably one of the ones I'm most curious about. If you watch some of the "Sights and Sounds", he was pretty active on the sideline with the offense all season. Sort of hoping that's a positive sign moving forward, as it would be nice to have him there behind whoever being groomed so they have some continuity should they hire O'Brien and he moves on.

That was intended as a joke. I like Caley but he's not under contract after this season. Then there's this interesting tidbit:

"He's been the one who has had to explain the offense and essentially teach the offense to a lot of people inside that building," Breer noted of Caley. "But he doesn't have a contract past this year. In fact, my understanding is that one of the reasons he didn't sign an extension is because he couldn't get clarity on his role.

"And now it's the same thing with Bill O'Brien where, because Bill Belichick doesn't know if Caley's going to be here past this year, he doesn't want to have to go through the process of replacing him (in 2023)."

It sounds like Belichick didn't want to change play-callers three times in three seasons and thus didn't want to risk naming an offensive play-caller who might leave the team next season. Thus, he landed on a trusted confidant in Patricia, who is entering his 16th season working with Belichick."

So what has changed to make Bill want to replace the OC 3 times in 3 seasons? Also, word is BoB hasn't heard from NEP. I'm not convinced at all we don't see Patricia back on offense.

Albert Breer: Why Patriots passed on Bill O'Brien, Nick Caley for offensive coordinator job

Why is Matt Patricia calling plays for the Patriots this season instead of Bill O'Brien or Nick Caley? Albert Breer broke it all down Sunday on Patriots Pregame Live.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Ian]

Point is they are not playing the division winner schedule the following season. Of course you have the rotating division opponent and your own division. I remember every year we'd have to play Peyton Manning or mahomes.

Still, same story. We feasted off a bad division for almost 20-years and that wasn't our fault with some years where the teams they had suddenly had a dip and people from other teams whined about that also. As I said, sort of a bad argument that people used against us. You play who you play. And I agree - and I wasn't sad to see Indianapolis leave the Division all those years ago

 

[Ring 6]

Not sure if anyone saw the press conference yesterday. He was absolutely eviscerated, and I would say all but two questions were absolutely brutal. My impression, based on his demeanor and his attitude, is that he's extremely frustrated and aggravated by how the season ended. I think he really believed they had a shot to compete, and based on how some of these last few games went, they were certainly in all of them. Even the one on Sunday. Obviously, when you take away the two kickoff returns, and they're not forcing the ball down the field and maintained the same approach, the way they were playing defense, even with the two plays Allen made, they were in it. Which when you think back to where they were a year ago, that was a surprising change.

I think he really thought they'd pull it together and the fact they didn't, especially with this group, I think really bothered him.

"Just a quick reflection of the season and honestly there'll be a lot more time spent on all of this later," said Belichick. "But our record is right around .500, which is what it's been kind of all year. With that, some good things and some not so good things, so nobody's satisfied with that. That's not our goal. We need to try to improve on that. Need to improve on it."

But I feel like he's upset enough about how it ended that they're going to make some moves this offseason. At least that's the impression I came away with after watching it yesterday.

There are millions of decisions that go into a football season.
You make every decision thinking it’s the best one and unless you are a pathetic team you go into every game expecting to win it. That’s what athletes and coaches do. You build a game plan with the expectation that if you execute to your ability you will be competitive and can win.
The difference is when you are at a huge disadvantage you have to stretch the expectations of what players can do even further.
So I agree with what you said but I would rephrase it as he was frustrated all year that if they just played to their potential they could compete with anyone and toward the end of the season they were getting there but shot themselves in the foot.
Cleaning up game planning and scheming and adding some talent (even just fixing the OL) puts them in a position where the margin for error is greater.

The way they played against Cincinnati, the defense against the raiders before the incomplete TD pass, beating the fins, and the way the offense and defense played vs Buffalo was the best football they played all year.
They were 2 bad calls away from going into Buffalo on a 4 game win streak and a 7-2 run.
Of course those losses were losses but the circumstances considered you can see the team was growing. It wasn’t good enough but aside from the flukes it had to be encouraging to the staff.

 

[Ian]

That was intended as a joke. I like Caley but he's not under contract after this season.

Exactly. They blocked him last year from interviewing in Las Vegas and he supposedly wasn't pleased about it and he was frustrated because he couldn't get any clarity. My question is will Belichick change his mind there? Supposedly, Kraft is a fan of Caley, and there was some speculation that his future could be discussed this offseason as part of their long-term plans. They need some continuity if they bring in somebody like O'Brien, so I'm definitely curious to see what happens with him.

 

[Ian]

There are millions of decisions that go into a football season.
You make every decision thinking it’s the best one and unless you are a pathetic team you go into every game expecting to win it. That’s what athletes and coaches do. You build a game plan with the expectation that if you execute to your ability you will be competitive and can win.
The difference is when you are at a huge disadvantage you have to stretch the expectations of what players can do even further.
So I agree with what you said but I would rephrase it as he was frustrated all year that if they just played to their potential they could compete with anyone and toward the end of the season they were getting there but shot themselves in the foot.
Cleaning up game planning and scheming and adding some talent (even just fixing the OL) puts them in a position where the margin for error is greater.

The way they played against Cincinnati, the defense against the raiders before the incomplete TD pass, beating the fins, and the way the offense and defense played vs Buffalo was the best football they played all year.
They were 2 bad calls away from going into Buffalo on a 4 game win streak and a 7-2 run.
Of course those losses were losses but the circumstances considered you can see the team was growing. It wasn’t good enough but aside from the flukes it had to be encouraging to the staff.

I agree. They just couldn't catch any breaks. We'll probably look back and be frustrated with how it ended, especially looking at how well they were looking defensively. It's just unfortunate that the breakthrough performance to right the ship really never came. They were close several times, but things always sort of slipped and the result was obviously not what anyone was hoping for.

 

[Ring 6]

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

No team wins all the time. This one sold out to stay in top and just finished the 3rd year of being pretty much average as a consequence.
Show me all the other teams that won for 20 straight years then kept winning and we can see if blame is necessary.
I will happily accept 2019-2022 for having had 2014-2018.
You couldn’t have had one without the other.

 

[Joey007]

I will say, if Bill doesn’t right the ship next year and he goes…

I am hearing Sean McVay may step away from the Rams this year. If he’s ready to return in 24-25, Krafty should definitely be all over it.