1/1/23 Dolphins @ Patriots pregame thread

[venecol]

I was a big fan of Wade would love to see him make plays.
Not having Mills has been a real problem for us.
I want him back I’m not sure what he can command on the open market I’m not comfortable with him being more than 10 mill on the cap.

Jonathan Jones Is an interesting one on one hand he can cash out but he’s played some not great ball the last 6 weeks.
He may be back for less than I thought.
However Raiders, Titans, Texans, and wherever Mayo goes is a threat to steal the kid.
Would be good to see Wade and their PS dbs show something.
The Miami receivers are tops in the league and Teddy B is no pushover.
Unless our O can score 4 plus TDs our playoffs live and die with this secondary.

Mills is an avg CB. Maybe moving him to safety would help.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yeah Phil, the offensive predictability is definitely concerning. I have a little hope that watching the second half last week and us opening it up and trying to throw downfield is an indication that we will try to do it going forward. We can only hope though.

We've been predictable all season long.. I doubt anything changes up.. at this point I'm looking more toward the off season than I am the playoffs..

 

[venecol]

The pats score 21.2 PPG. That is with 6 defensive/ST TDs right?

Jones, Bryant & Wade will be covering Tyreek & Waddle. Bridgewater is a high end back up QB.

I don’t get the pats -2.5 spread currently. Offense is going to have to score.

That's solely based on Tua being out. I doubt Vegas moves the line much over rookie CBs, unless it's a Sauce Gardner type. However, the line was at -3 yesterday, so maybe they do.

 

[p8ryts]

Depends. He's late on the throw to Jakobi, but by holding it, he can hit Thornton for a huge TD.

You have to throw it there before he gets there.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The Patriots should win this game, possibly by a lot.

How they do in Buffalo depends entirely upon their attitude.

Intensity and strength of purpose elevate a team to put their adversity, errors and deficiencies in the past and be more than the sum of their parts.

It's about chemistry, and leadership.

I think if Bill told them he may step down, that would get their attention.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Indeed... Some people dismissed losing Malcolm Butler & SloJuan Williams to injury during the preseason and Terrance Mitchell to the Titties early in the season as no big deal, and certainly there were players ahead of them on the depth chart at that time; but when it's Christmas Week and you haven't yet been eliminated but you're missing some of your top CBs, a couple of whom for awhile now, that's when experience matters... We could use a healthy Malcolm now, Mitchell too before he was IRed last week...

Your boy Shaun Wade will have to step up

 

[italian pat patriot]

In the meanwhile Joey Bosa back for the Chargers...
Slater could be back too...

 

[ashley]

injury report and there are quite a few:

 

[ashley]

Your boy Shaun Wade will have to step up

He's going to need to play better than he has recently.

 

[Uptown]

15.5 INT’s

 

[TomPatriot]

He's going to need to play better than he has recently.

He will certainly see the ball a lot.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think Brian (whoever he is) is right and Lazar is wrong in the above analysis. You can see the safety start to jump the cut and Mac holds the ball for another beat or half second. At that point, Mac still has the capability of going to Thornton who has beaten his coverage

TL;DR: I absolutely agree with you to a point (about Mac going to TT), and this was a huge wasted opportunity where Mac was able to have the luxury of a Time to Throw of 3.36s.

----

1) Assuming a max 58 air yard throw taking about 3.1s in the air from Mac from the NE 22yd line, TT with the post route would catch it in the middle of the field at the CIN 20yd line about 6.46s post snap.

2) Up until the start of Mac's throwing motion (3.12s post snap), the safety was cheating towards TT's side and was at the 50yd line taking too sharp of an angle. Based on his combine, he'd travel the 30yds to the catch spot in 3.65s (6.77s post snap) at the absolute optimistic best, and that's being extremely generous, so he'd be .31s too late (3yds at least). (He's facing/moving the wrong way to start, body's facing 135deg from where he needs to be running to, etc). People have to remember that 10yd times are way slower (1.58s for the safety Bates) than 10yd flying times (.91s for TT avg from 20yd-40yd, so it should be faster than this).

3) At that time (start of throwing motion), TT was at the NE47 having started his break at the NE44. A trip to the middle of the field at the CIN20 would be about 36yds of running. At this point, it's a matter of figuring out how fast TT can go tracking the ball running in a straight line. I'm guessing around 22mph (wild guess as they don't measure this), which would get him to the spot right on time with a chance to catch in full stride.

20.45mph or 10yds/s - 6.72s post snap reaches the CIN20
21.5mph or 10.5yds/s - 6.55s
22mph or 10.76yds/s - 6.47s
Combine 11yds/s avg from 20 to 40 (22.5mph) - 6.39s

4) If TT were running a Go or a very skinny post (catch around the numbers), the safety would have zero shot. TT and the safety would have to run about the same distance to the same spot with TT having a running start. Depending on how fast TT can get there, I'm guessing Mac would release the throw as quick as 2.75s - maybe closer to 2.9s while TT's at the 45-47. The latest Mac would have to decide to throw in this case (start of throwing motion) would be when TT's at the 42-43 (EDIT: very close to where Mac was "at the top of his route" according to Lazar above).

5) Can Mac do a pump fake for once? FFS.

Summary - TT is wide the f open on that post.

 

[borg]

Interestingly enough.......

Using current AFC playoff rankings:
Of the teams ranked 7-14, only Your New England Patriots will be starting their Week 1 QB (we think)
(assuming Tua's head stays scrambled)
7 Mia
8 NE
9 NYJ
10 Tenn
11 Pitt
12 LV
13 Cleve
14 Indy

 

[venecol]

TL;DR: I absolutely agree with you to a point (about Mac going to TT), and this was a huge wasted opportunity where Mac was able to have the luxury of a Time to Throw of 3.36s.

----

1) Assuming a max 58 air yard throw taking about 3.1s in the air from Mac from the NE 22yd line, TT with the post route would catch it in the middle of the field at the CIN 20yd line about 6.46s post snap.

2) Up until the start of Mac's throwing motion (3.12s post snap), the safety was cheating towards TT's side and was at the 50yd line taking too sharp of an angle. Based on his combine, he'd travel the 30yds to the catch spot in 3.65s (6.77s post snap) at the absolute optimistic best, and that's being extremely generous, so he'd be .31s too late (3yds at least). (He's facing/moving the wrong way to start, body's facing 135deg from where he needs to be running to, etc). People have to remember that 10yd times are way slower (1.58s for the safety Bates) than 10yd flying times (.91s for TT avg from 20yd-40yd, so it should be faster than this).

3) At that time (start of throwing motion), TT was at the NE47 having started his break at the NE44. A trip to the middle of the field at the CIN20 would be about 36yds of running. At this point, it's a matter of figuring out how fast TT can go tracking the ball running in a straight line. I'm guessing around 22mph (wild guess as they don't measure this), which would get him to the spot right on time with a chance to catch in full stride.

20.45mph or 10yds/s - 6.72s post snap reaches the CIN20
21.5mph or 10.5yds/s - 6.55s
22mph or 10.76yds/s - 6.47s
Combine 11yds/s avg from 20 to 40 (22.5mph) - 3.45s - 6.39s

4) If TT were running a Go or a very skinny post (catch around the numbers), the safety would have zero shot. TT and the safety would have to run about the same distance to the same spot with TT having a running start. Depending on how fast TT can get there, I'm guessing Mac would release the throw as quick as 2.75s - maybe closer to 2.9s while TT's at the 45-47. The latest Mac would have to decide to throw in this case (start of throwing motion) would be when TT's at the 42-43.

5) Can Mac do a pump fake for once? FFS.

Summary - TT is wide the f open on that post.

Good data. Can Mac make that 58+ air yard throw in that pocket though?

 

[Jim Beankie]

Good data. Can Mac make that 58+ air yard throw in that pocket though?

In retrospect, imho, yes. He would've had to commit to throwing it a pinch sooner. His throwing motion was .25s, which is faster than usual indicating a non optimal throw. If he committed to the deep throw setting his feet at least .05s sooner, then he would've had "time" for a bigger windup. His 57 air yard throw (that TT dropped later) was .3s for the throwing motion iirc. Tough watching 30fps videos though so could be off.

 

[venecol]

In retrospect, imho, yes. He would've had to commit to throwing it a pinch sooner. His throwing motion was .25s, which is faster than usual indicating a non optimal throw. If he committed to the deep throw setting his feet at least .05s sooner, then he would've had "time" for a bigger windup. His 57 air yard throw (that TT dropped later) was .3s for the throwing motion iirc. Tough watching 30fps videos though so could be off.

Man that would've been a beautiful big time throw assuming Thorton catches it. I wish he would've tried. Oh well.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Good data. Can Mac make that 58+ air yard throw in that pocket though?

If he throws it earlier it does not have to travel 58+ yards.

 

[slash83]

Even with Bridgewater at QB it’s a bit scary going against those WRs being so depleted at Corner.

 

[Patsfan177a]

Good data. Can Mac make that 58+ air yard throw in that pocket though?

Even better question, can TT catch it!

 

[upstater1]

TL;DR: I absolutely agree with you to a point (about Mac going to TT), and this was a huge wasted opportunity where Mac was able to have the luxury of a Time to Throw of 3.36s.

----

1) Assuming a max 58 air yard throw taking about 3.1s in the air from Mac from the NE 22yd line, TT with the post route would catch it in the middle of the field at the CIN 20yd line about 6.46s post snap.

2) Up until the start of Mac's throwing motion (3.12s post snap), the safety was cheating towards TT's side and was at the 50yd line taking too sharp of an angle. Based on his combine, he'd travel the 30yds to the catch spot in 3.65s (6.77s post snap) at the absolute optimistic best, and that's being extremely generous, so he'd be .31s too late (3yds at least). (He's facing/moving the wrong way to start, body's facing 135deg from where he needs to be running to, etc). People have to remember that 10yd times are way slower (1.58s for the safety Bates) than 10yd flying times (.91s for TT avg from 20yd-40yd, so it should be faster than this).

3) At that time (start of throwing motion), TT was at the NE47 having started his break at the NE44. A trip to the middle of the field at the CIN20 would be about 36yds of running. At this point, it's a matter of figuring out how fast TT can go tracking the ball running in a straight line. I'm guessing around 22mph (wild guess as they don't measure this), which would get him to the spot right on time with a chance to catch in full stride.

20.45mph or 10yds/s - 6.72s post snap reaches the CIN20
21.5mph or 10.5yds/s - 6.55s
22mph or 10.76yds/s - 6.47s
Combine 11yds/s avg from 20 to 40 (22.5mph) - 3.45s - 6.39s

4) If TT were running a Go or a very skinny post (catch around the numbers), the safety would have zero shot. TT and the safety would have to run about the same distance to the same spot with TT having a running start. Depending on how fast TT can get there, I'm guessing Mac would release the throw as quick as 2.75s - maybe closer to 2.9s while TT's at the 45-47. The latest Mac would have to decide to throw in this case (start of throwing motion) would be when TT's at the 42-43.

5) Can Mac do a pump fake for once? FFS.

Summary - TT is wide the f open on that post.

Great analysis. I will only say that I believe the safety was not honoring Thornton at all and was already moving inside.