NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION Week 16 Other Games

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If CIN beats BUF, then Buf drops to #3, CIN #2 & KC #1 (w/ W over DEN). All three play at 1:00 the final week. If BUF wins, KC loses vs LVR & CIN loses vs BAL they jump back to #1. But even if KC wins but CIN loses, they can still get the #2 seed.

If they beat CIN & KC beats DEN, then they still need to W final week in case KC wins and they lose.

I don't see any scenario where they don't play it out.

Edit: If BUF wins & KC loses then maybe they take it easy since even if they lose last game & KC wins, they still hold the #1 seed. But will KC lose to DEN?

If our game with buffalo somehow gets flexed to allow kc and cincy to complete their games first in week 18, that is the only scenario i can realistically see Buffalo having nothing to play for (i dont see any way kc loses to denver). Kc is in vegas so they wont play until 4.

Balt-cincy and det-gb would be the most likely to be flexed though imo if those games have real stakes.

 

[NE_Zealot]

especially since he was an MVP candidate last year. You don't go from 43 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns for no reason...

I agree, he couldn’t have hit the cliff this fast. It’s not unreasonable to suspect that the very public off-field issues (divorce, FTX) have played a role as well. But that is speculation, he has played below his standards no argument.

 

[venecol]

There's been a big drop-off in scoring this season, mainly in the red area. Last season there were 9 QBs w/ >30 TDs. This season that may be down to 4 or 5. Brady, Rodgers, Herbert, Prescott are all much lower. Only Mahomes and Burrow are where they were last season.

 

[crawhammer]

Chargers had a 10.5 O/U at start of season. They've won 9 and have a good chance to win final two (LAR & DEN).

Bucs had a 11.5 O/U at start of season. They've won 7 and will be lucky to win 8.

Herbert is not the Chargers problem.

Ok, seriously you're saying Brady is the Bucs problem?

 

[crawhammer]

You can't use Tom's age as an excuse.
I'm one of the biggest TB fans on here and he's playing bad for his standards

Actually I can use any excuse of my choosing. He's 45. Get real. No other player in the history of the NFL comes within 100,000,00 miles of what Brady has accomplished plus-40. So you're going to sit there and hold him to the standards of a 25 and 35-year-old Brady? That's called ridiculously unfair. And the team has a 1000 problems this season that have contributed to Brady's diminished numbers. He is the reason they're even still alive for the postseason. Who else are you giving credit to? Dummy Bowles? The patchwork o-line? The broken down receiving corps? The NFL's 32nd ranked running game? You tell me who makes their offense work, at all, ever.

 

[upstater1]

Do we have a pre game thread for Miami?

I want to point out that Mike McDaniel questioned the manhood of Patriots players after the last game

 

[crawhammer]

To me, Herbert is excelling given the above challenges, Brady is performing but should be doing better than he is, and Mac is underperforming. No excuses for any of them. All three are veteran NFL QBs. Mac gets a pass because its only his 2nd year but Herbert only has 3. Brady gets zero excuses.

Herbert is not excelling this season, he doesn't have the numbers. His TD% is way down from his first two seasons (5.2%, 5.7% & 3.3% respectively) yet he has the highest completion percentage of his career (66.6%, 65.9% & 68.0% respectively). He's not finding the end zone, whereas their running game that you're critical of has 13 TDs (by comparison the Bucs have 4). I like Herbert a lot, he has a very promising career ahead of him, and he's been way more impressive than Mac, but he's not living up to expectations in his third season. He can however correct that with a good showing in the postseason (his first).

Also, you say "no excuses for any of them" but in your next sentence say "Mac gets a pass." So which is it? And it seems odd you'd give a second year starting 1st round draft pick a pass but not an unprecedented 45-year-old veteran who has earned the benefit of doubt more than any player in the history of professional team sports.

 

[ashley]

Actually I can use any excuse of my choosing. He's 45. Get real. No other player in the history of the NFL comes within 100,000,00 miles of what Brady has accomplished plus-40. So you're going to sit there and hold him to the standards of a 25 and 35-year-old Brady? That's called ridiculously unfair. And the team has a 1000 problems this season that have contributed to Brady's diminished numbers. He is the reason they're even still alive for the postseason. Who else are you giving credit to? Dummy Bowles? The patchwork o-line? The broken down receiving corps? The NFL's 32nd ranked running game? You tell me who makes their offense work, at all, ever.

Please move this conversation over to the TB Forum.

Thanks,

Ash

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Ok, seriously you're saying Brady is the Bucs problem?

He’s one of the problems they have

 

[venecol]

Ok, seriously you're saying Brady is the Bucs problem?

No, this began with you saying:

Herbert's season is shaping up to be rather mediocre.

I was just contrasting the seasons both Herbert & Brady were having since they're under similar situations.

The reality is aside from Mahomes and Burrow, almost all of last season's top 10 QBs are having less production. Outside of the top 10, one of the biggest improvements is Trevor Lawrence going from 12 TD / 17 INT to 24 TDs / 7 INT and 214.2 ypg to 249.9 ypg. His rating has increased by 33.5%. That's a big jump in production.

 

[crawhammer]

No, this began with you saying:

I was just contrasting the seasons both Herbert & Brady were having since they're under similar situations.

The reality is aside from Mahomes and Burrow, almost all of last season's top 10 QBs are having less production. Outside of the top 10, one of the biggest improvements is Trevor Lawrence going from 12 TD / 17 INT to 24 TDs / 7 INT and 214.2 ypg to 249.9 ypg. His rating has increased by 33.5%. That's a big jump in production.

Lawrence has been fantastic in the second half of the season (14 TDs & 1 INT) but he still needs to clean up the fumbles.

Hurts has made a big jump as a passer too this season.

Tua was a darkhorse MVP candidate until the recent 4-game losing streak, where he's played poorly, but still he leads the NFL in passer rating (105.5). His absence will be a big blow for Miami's chances against the Patriots this weekend.

Geno Smith and Goff are comeback player of the year candidates.

But you're right about last season's top 10 QBs, many have seen a drop in their production.

 

[Rob0729]

Russell Wilson can't hit a side of a barn with his throws this year, but apparently he can take out a kicker's leg with his throws.

 

[captain stone]

Russell Wilson can't hit a side of a barn with his throws this year, but apparently he can take out a kicker's leg with his throws.

Is this real? Can't be...

 

[crawhammer]

Is this real? Can't be...

I think Gay was trying to be funny. Or just making fun of Russell Wilson, who's an easy target nowadays.

 

[foxboroughfraser]

You can't use Tom's age as an excuse.
I'm one of the biggest TB fans on here and he's playing bad for his standards

So instead it's more reasonable to compare a 24 year old at his prime to a 45 year old at the end of his career?

 

[crawhammer]

So instead it's more reasonable to compare a 24 year old at his prime to a 45 year old at the end of his career?

It's worse than that. She's comparing a 45-year-old Brady to his own prime standards.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It's worse than that. She's comparing a 45-year-old Brady to his own prime standards.

Last year, I didn't hear a peep out of you about how Brady was playing great for a 44 year old. Rather, I heard he played the best two years of his career in Tampa. Now you want us to grade him on a curve? The truth of the matter is what propped him up in Tampa in 2020 and 2021 is now falling apart, including the talent around him, the easy schedule he enjoyed for two years straight, and coaching.

 

[crawhammer]

Last year, I didn't hear a peep out of you about how Brady was playing great for a 44 year old. Rather, I heard he played the best two years of his career in Tampa. Now you want us to grade him on a curve? The truth of the matter is what propped him up in Tampa in 2020 and 2021 is now falling apart, including the talent around him, the easy schedule he enjoyed for two years straight, and coaching.

Out of respect for Ashley I won't elaborate other than to say yes I'm grading him on a curve because he's earned it.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Out of respect for Ashley I won't elaborate other than to say yes I'm grading him on a curve because he's earned it.

Funny you didn't mention anything about grading Brady on a curve at the beginning of the season. This is what you wrote:

Brady will have another pro bowl season (his record 16th) and be in the MVP conversation (but won't win it). Currently the WR and TE depth isn't as good as it was the last two seasons. A lot will depend on the recovery of Godwin and how well Gage fits into the WR3 spot. They could still add a veteran WR and/or TE with several interesting names still available. They should get decent production from their RBs in the passing game and running game (although their running is probably screwed if Fournette gets injured). They lost both starting guards from last season but acquired Shaq Mason, drafted Luke Goedeke, and will be promoting Aaron Stinnie as a starter. They have pro bowl calibers starting tackles. They should have a lower top10-ish defense.

Prediction for Brady’s number...

4930 yards
38 TD [Way off]
9 INT [correct]

Probably going to be Brady's last season and he'll go out still playing at an elite level.

Our resident Brady hater MAC10 continues to argue Brady is washed up and can't beat any good teams, only the bad ones (despite going 6-3 against teams with a winning record and being an MVP finalist last season). He says Brady's going to suck without Gronk and AB and facing a difficult schedule.

Now that Brady's numbers are down, you are moving the goal posts to saying he's playing well for a 45 year old.

 

[crawhammer]

Funny you didn't mention anything about grading Brady on a curve at the beginning of the season. This is what you wrote:

Now that Brady's numbers are down, you are moving the goal posts to saying he's playing well for a 45 year old.

Take note that it's you who won't (or can't) take this up in the Brady forum.

Think for yourself, brother. How much of a factor do you think Brady's age is? You apparently don't think he was ever that good (despite winning more Super Bowls than any NFL FRANCHISE) but you definitely had him washed up when he left New England after the 2019 season. You predicted he and the Bucs would suck from the get go. Yet after Brady played as well as he ever had (if not better) and he won another Super Bowl (and SB MVP) and nearly another NFL MVP a season later, you claimed (in a complete 180) that it was because of the infallible situation he had entered in Tampa Bay. The literal most losing franchise in the history of professional sports.

Quite certainly you thought in part Brady would have diminished results in Tampa Bay because of his age. But now that there's actually lesser production you're going to completely disregard his age. Not surprisingly so you can perpetuate your ridiculous argument that he cheated or lucked his way into 7 Super Bowl championships.

Yes, I had too high expectations of Brady for this season. His numbers are much lower than I had anticipated. I'd reiterate all of the reasons beyond his supposed poor play but you'll just dismiss all of it.

However, I'm hardly just bringing up Brady's age this season. I've qualified all of his accomplishments in Tampa Bay by citing his age throughout. Playing at such an exceedingly high level at ages 43 and 44 (with a new team) is ridiculously impressive. So if he's in fact showing his age more this season then I don't think anyone should be shocked or overly critical of a 45-year-old declining.

And after all, he's still playing relatively well. This isn't a 2015 decrepit Peyton Manning (age 39). Or a completely washed Matt Ryan (age 37). Or a suddenly inept Russell Wilson (age 34).

This season also isn't over. It's entirely possible Brady and the Bucs make some noise in the postseason.