PICKS THAT MAKE SENSE - OL THOUGHTS
A lot is discussed about “need“ and BPA and “value“ picks. Positional value. Personal binkies as well of course.
What about some perspective on what makes sense in regard to the existing roster? Id guess its at least part of the puzzle maybe significant.
Lets look at OL that i took the time to watch extensively (some 80 players +).
OL is a need. I guess nobody disputes that.
It was also one of the 4 positions reportedly scouted (meets, visits, workouts) heavily at the top (along w WR, LB, CB) which usually provides some indicator. At least 5 players projected to go Day 1&2 met, visited or worked out with NE (Penning, Raimann, Smith, Paul, Green).
We can safely add Zion Johnson as clear target with no need of visit being a “clean“ prospect from the area. Some others as well.
All have either tape or traits to play both guard and tackle, some of them all 5.
Looking at the roster there is an opening for a starter with no clear guy who could step up. Also not much left in FA.
On the other hand there is quite a lot of depth in terms of solid backups, PS/scout team players.
So the pick that would make most sense at this position (guard/tackle) is a possible/probable starter year 1.
That of course is a high ask with Pats draft capital.
I have maybe 5 players that one can have legit hope to start year 1 at either G or T & possibly be available at 21 and gone by 85.
That would mean one of the first two picks (even with possible trade down) would be needed to address this.
Many people are mocking Rd 3-5 guys forgetting that Pats roster is already full of similar prospects that have a hard time stepping up as starters. So drafting a prospect like f.e. Tom makes no sense to me this yr with guys like Herron, Cajuste, Hambright etc already on.
Id argue Pats should go for the best or at least reasonable chance to get legit G/T starter in this Draft.
The aforementioned “visit tracker“ suggests thats what they likely have in mind. (note that the only other OL reported contact is possible bup center Jurgens - a day 3 guy - which is also a “need“).
So
Penning might be gone by 21 and there are some question marks besides legit upsides so trading up might be too steep here. But if he falls..
Raimann is a Day 2 guy often mocked to Pats in round one. The “value“ would not be there but he does fit and despite being new to the position he could actually step up to a decent starter in Sep. By all indications he would be long gone before pick #54.
Zion - much was said already. I may be a bit lower on him but would not mind terribly if he is the 1st round pick. Of course value would not be there at #21 and getting him after trade down would be nicer but might not be the reality.
Green - one of my favourite guys for NE in this Draft. Would love the pick even at #21 despite “value“ not quite there (like most of this Draft). Have no doubt he could be impactful at LG Day 1.
Parham - not much talked about here but should be legit target for NE. For me basically in the same tier as the two before but more of IOL mold although he has also some decent tape at RT. He might be available a bit later but might also require a trade up in the second. And that would still be a very good value in this Draft.
There are a few guys who could maybe develop quickly enough to offer starting at least at G - but i would not bet on it:
Hayes - yep, there's a chance . not too far from above 3
Strange - not too far away either - all 5 positions - needs to bulk & anchor up for legit G
Salyer - prime backup at all 5 positions but is he a good enough starter?
Tulsa Twins - Smith & Paul - both reported contacts w NE. Quite raw with decent upside but probably not ready to start by Sep
Faalele - even more work to do . but stranger things have happened - but at least the huge upside might be worth the risk
(Tom - Herron with upside but also limitations)
