NFL Free Agency 2022 edition

[venecol]

Interesting article on the value of low draft picks vs proven veterans. They use what the Rams have been doing, trading low round picks for proven assets (Ramsey, Stafford). It seems mid rounds have better return.



Looks like Miami is following this same model.

 

[venecol]

Would rather not have to face AJ Brown twice a year.



Or Metcalf

 

[venecol]

 

[Ring 6]

If, as some suggests, WRs are so critically important why are all these teams trading away their WRs?

 

[VectorPrime]

If the Titans trade AJ Brown I officially have no idea what they’re doing because their super bowl window is not long for this world.

 

[venecol]

Wow

 

[venecol]

Interesting article on the value of low draft picks vs proven veterans. They use what the Rams have been doing, trading low round picks for proven assets (Ramsey, Stafford). It seems mid rounds have better return.



Looks like Miami is following this same model.

Going back to this article:





Only 31% of 1st Rd players got a 2nd contract w/ same team. In the case of Parker & Agholor (both 1st Rd), they had an Expected SC Pay Ratio (1st Rd avg. is 0.98) of 0.62 & 0.05 (Agholor's 2nd contract was $1M w/ the Raiders), respectively. A 4th Rd pick has an Expected SC Pay Ratio between 2.23-3.50.

 

[Ross12]

Wow

The "spending the most in cap space" statement is facetious. A lot of teams are using small first year hits and void years right now. What the Pats are spending on their WR corps today will look like a miniscule figure in 2 years.

 

[PatsFan2]

Jarvis Landry is still out there and is a #1ish type receiver...since no one seems to want to pay him that much money maybe he can be had on a relatively cheap deal. Was productive early up until 2020 when things started going south...maybe it's tied to Baker throwing him the ball.

I think he wants 18Mill haven't you heard?

 

[PatsFan2]

If the Titans trade AJ Brown I officially have no idea what they’re doing because their super bowl window is not long for this world.

I Think they meant Metcalf that gotta be a typo Vrabel ain't dumb.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I think he wants 18Mill haven't you heard?

Then he can sit for the 2022 season

 

[Ross12]

I wonder what Houston wants for him. His cap # for the trading team would be around $14M in 2022 and then he's a free agent after this year. None of that salary is guaranteed. However I'm not sure how exactly an extension would work since he already has two void years tacked on the end.

I think what would happen is - let's say you trade for him and immediately extend him for 2 years, $12M each year, $20M guaranteed via signing bonus. The $20M is spread across 2022, 2023, 2024, plus the two void years get pushed out to 2025 and 2026. So you've got $5M of signing bonus proration a year. You can set his 2022 salary to be $1M, 2023 salary at $5M and 2024 salary at $10M - totals to $16M in salary plus the $20M you gave him in signing bonus, so $36M total or $12M APY, and your per-year cap hits are something like $6M in 2022, $10M in 2023, and $15M in 2024, then $10M in dead money in 2025 when his contract voids.

Wonder if he would be amenable to $12M APY over 3 years. He's only 29 still. I wouldn't mind having him back.

 

[Rob0729]

If the Titans trade AJ Brown I officially have no idea what they’re doing because their super bowl window is not long for this world.

I don't think they are getting into the Super Bowl with or without Brown. But the Jets are desperate after losing to Hill and have two top 10 first round picks this year. They could be desperate enough to give up both.

Personally, I don't get the Jets. They are in position to get a receiver that is potentially as good or better than Brown or Metcalf at either 4 or 10 on a rookie deal, but they rather give at least one of those picks to trade for one of those guys and then give them top of the market contracts. I guess that is why the Jets are the Jets. But then again, the way the Jets draft in the top 10, they might be better off trading away those picks for established players.

 

[PatsFan2]

Then he can sit for the 2022 season

That's why I have moved on from him.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Interesting article on the value of low draft picks vs proven veterans. They use what the Rams have been doing, trading low round picks for proven assets (Ramsey, Stafford). It seems mid rounds have better return.



Looks like Miami is following this same model.

That was a GREAT article. Thanks for sharing.

The money shot

In trading two first round picks for Ramsey, McVay & Les Snead could roughly calculate an Expected SC Pay Ratio of 1.96 (2*0.98) compared to what Ramsey provided at 3.05. The Rams are removing risk here when they aggressively trade for known commodities. The Rams then collect mid-round picks and have had no fewer than eight picks in a draft since McVay took over.

This may be insight into something the league has overlooked, and they are playing the percentages. Otherwise, reviewing the draft history through the lens of guaranteed money at second contract compared to first shows there is significant value in the middle to late rounds, and the margin for error is much smaller in the early rounds.

It is very rare that value is secured with early picks due to the large sums of guaranteed money these picks receive before proving they can play at the NFL level.

So net-net, Rams pay a premium for proven players and gladly give up top pick to accomplish that. They accumulate mid-round picks because the 2nd contract is more economically friendly than a 1st or 2nd rounder. That is how they are able to balance out their salary cap.

 

[Ross12]

That was a GREAT article. Thanks for sharing.

The money shot



So net-net, Rams pay a premium for proven players and gladly give up top pick to accomplish that. They accumulate mid-round picks because the 2nd contract is more economically friendly than a 1st or 2nd rounder. That is how they are able to balance out their salary cap.

Agreed, the economics of their approach are extremely interesting.

 

[Rob0729]

If I am the Texans, I am unloading any player of value that isn't in the long term plans. They have a crapload of high draft picks over the next three years and could really load up, but Cooks will likely be at the end or past his prime by the time they do. I say that if they can get at least a second rounder for him, trade him.

 

[PatsFan2]

If I am the Texans, I am unloading any player of value that isn't in the long term plans. They have a crapload of high draft picks over the next three years and could really load up, but Cooks will likely be at the end or past his prime by the time they do. I say that if they can get at least a second rounder for him, trade him.

Cookie coupled with Devante Parker would be Great. WR would actually be a strength after Cookies acquisition. I would do it for #54 Cookie is consistent.

 

[venecol]

I wonder what Houston wants for him. His cap # for the trading team would be around $14M in 2022 and then he's a free agent after this year. None of that salary is guaranteed. However I'm not sure how exactly an extension would work since he already has two void years tacked on the end.

I think what would happen is - let's say you trade for him and immediately extend him for 2 years, $12M each year, $20M guaranteed via signing bonus. The $20M is spread across 2022, 2023, 2024, plus the two void years get pushed out to 2025 and 2026. So you've got $5M of signing bonus proration a year. You can set his 2022 salary to be $1M, 2023 salary at $5M and 2024 salary at $10M - totals to $16M in salary plus the $20M you gave him in signing bonus, so $36M total or $12M APY, and your per-year cap hits are something like $6M in 2022, $10M in 2023, and $15M in 2024, then $10M in dead money in 2025 when his contract voids.

Wonder if he would be amenable to $12M APY over 3 years. He's only 29 still. I wouldn't mind having him back.

His void years w/ HOU aren't the Pats problem. They'll convert to dead money for HOU this year. I think they take a $7.5M dead money hit.

 

[venecol]

I don't think they are getting into the Super Bowl with or without Brown. But the Jets are desperate after losing to Hill and have two top 10 first round picks this year. They could be desperate enough to give up both.

Personally, I don't get the Jets. They are in position to get a receiver that is potentially as good or better than Brown or Metcalf at either 4 or 10 on a rookie deal, but they rather give at least one of those picks to trade for one of those guys and then give them top of the market contracts. I guess that is why the Jets are the Jets. But then again, the way the Jets draft in the top 10, they might be better off trading away those picks for established players.

It's because the 1st RD picks are a 'what if' scenario. That's what the Rams have been doing (succesfully - 2 SB, 1 win), trading 1st RD picks for known assets. MIA did it as well this year. It may be a new approach.