Week 8 pregame discussion: Pats @ Chargers

[Deus Irae]

This game is huge.


The Chargers are the last even semi-decent team that the Patriots beat. Since that game, the Patriots only wins are against the Jets (3 wins) and the Texans (1 win). Against the rest of the NFL, they are 0-7. So this is a real chance to start changing that line, and the Patriots have a very favorable matchup against that Charger defense.


It's not a must win, but it's not all that far from one, either.

 

[sb1]

Special Teams is something to keep an eye on this Sunday:

I think a lot of that is they have problems at kicker. Only 10/15 in XP this year. Yikes. Also only 41% on kickoff touchbacks which feels low.

 

[Hyped]

Comments:

a.) I get Chargers games on the TV here all the time. So, I have seen them play a lot whenever they aren't on the east coast or playing at the same time as the Pats.

b.) Offense:

Great QB in Herbert. 65% completions & a 14/4 TD/INT ratio.
Good LT in Slater, we probably can't pressure Herbert on his blindside.
Ekeler is the main man...and he has been having success running it between the tackles more than off tackle.
Allen and Williams have to be taken away from Herbert.
Even then...there's Cook and Parham at TE...both aren't too bad either.
Their #3 is Guyton...but barely used...maybe 4-5 targets a game.
Very aggressive on 3rd/4th and short....

c.) Defense:

Joseph Linval shuts down things in the middle.
Might have to run off tackle away from Joey Bosa.
Wynn is going to need his best game versus Joey Bosa...but I think we will mix in Herron to help out Wynn.
Whatever we do...go away from Derwin James...the MVP of the defense...does it all.
At corner, they are rotating guys in and out...
Expect Asante Samuel to rip BB on twitter before, during, and after the game....his kid is one of their 3 top corners.
No pass rush to fear from the right side...or where ever Bosa or James don't line up...

d.) Special Teams:

We have to ensure that we have the edge here on our coverage and return games.
Bailey should help us with field position as long as we punt block well and keep kicking it out of the back end of the EZ on kick offs.

e.) Coaching:

Staley has been aggressive....maybe the most aggressive coach in the league thus far this year. If not for his aggression the Chargers could be a 2-4 team instead, IMO. I'd like to see BB remain conservative in this game...just wait it out until we absolutely need to be aggressive.

f.) Stadium:

We are 1-1 there...we had our best win last year there and our worst loss back to back....tough call.
I am still undecided on going to the game, but think I might.....

 

[ashley]

Tuesday's transactions/news:

 

[PScottman]

Best way to make up for lack of sticky coverage is good pressure on the QB.

What the Nattering Nabobs gloss over in their purely eye test prognostications is that the gameplan dictates the statistics in many Patriots iterations by using one sub group to hide another weakness. What I mean is - there are many examples of "this team cant get sacks" Patriots defenses that suddenly will have a 4 sack game. Or "this team cant defend the run" and the next contest they hold the opposition to 2.7 yds p/rush - but likely give up more aerial yards. With the DBs hurting, does another subgroup get called on to take a bigger role?

That's the NFL today though. It is indeed an offensive league. It is the rare defense that can do EVERYTHING so well that they can hold an offense from either running or passing.

It will be very interesting which Chargers strength the Patriots choose to concentrate on making harder - run or pass - and how. Will it be run defense with the fat guys knowing the pass offense will move the ball or pass defense with the pass rushers instead of the cover guys?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

What the Nattering Nabobs gloss over in their purely eye test prognostications is that the gameplan dictates the statistics in many Patriots iterations by using one sub group to hide another weakness. What I mean is - there are many examples of "this team cant get sacks" Patriots defenses that suddenly will have a 4 sack game. Or "this team cant defend the run" and the next contest they hold the opposition to 2.7 yds p/rush - but likely give up more aerial yards. With the DBs hurting, does another subgroup get called on to take a bigger role?

That's the NFL today though. It is indeed an offensive league. It is the rare defense that can do EVERYTHING so well that they can hold an offense from either running or passing.

It will be very interesting which Chargers strength the Patriots choose to concentrate on making harder - run or pass - and how. Will it be run defense with the fat guys knowing the pass offense will move the ball or pass defense with the pass rushers instead of the cover guys?

Another BB hallmarks. We talk in terms of units "disguising" this and that, but really what's going on is that, unlike a team that announces "We will sack you because we blitz every play," the Pats aren't searching for an identity you can print on a T-shirt. Their identity is, "what identity do you have to be to win this game?"

 

[scott99]

Winning games is what I meant.

4-2 this year. Was a rookie on a losing team last year. Very similar to Jones this year (rookie on a losing team). Not many will agree with you that Herbert is inconsistent.

 

[catent]

So, league’s worst run defense, league’s worst special teams, an offense held to 20 or fewer points in half their games (including 6 in their last one.). Overall, outscored by 2 points on the season. Am I only the one who thinks this team is severely overrated because they beat the Chiefs? Herbert had 31 TDs, 10 INTs last year and they only went 7-9. I think they’re closer to .500 than they are to a contender.

I think the Patriots will exploit their huge weaknesses and win by a touchdown.

Was Lynn still their coach last season? I figured that was part of the reason the Pats pantsed them last year so I’m a bit less certain the same will happen this season, but the special teams ranking suggests poor coaching/attention to detail, so that is encouraging in the sense it may suggest the Pats still have a considerable coaching advantage.

My guess is that LAC’s run defense issues stem more from personnel than coaching, but who knows.

Either way, the ST stat is nice to know.

 

[Rob0729]

The Bucs and Cowboys missed plays because of unforced mistakes. Had those not happened, those two "should have" losses would have been "never had a prayer" blowouts. That's the problem with the "should have..." argument. Far too often, it ignores the "should have" from the other point of view.

Hell, the Dolphins would have been saying "should have" about the late Tua INT, had they lost.

But you can also argue the Pats had their own unforced mistakes that might have turned “should have” loses into “I can’t believe they pulled it off” wins. That is how the NFL works. All season the Pats have been shooting themselves in the foot with unforced errors including in wins except for last week.

 

[Deus Irae]

But you can also argue the Pats had their own unforced mistakes that might have turned “should have” loses into “I can’t believe they pulled it off” wins. That is how the NFL works. All season the Pats have been shooting themselves in the foot with unforced errors including in wins except for last week.

AB dropped a TD pass that he pretty much never drops, for example. That's different from "if that stiff had actually made a play...". Or, for another one... "We could have beaten Miami, but Harris fumbled" is fine, but the same people who make that claim will ignore the reality of the Dallas fumble (Prescott), and what coulda/woulda/shoulda.

And we've never seen a perfect game by any team. Every team shoots itself in the foot, every game. It's the context of the errors that matters

 

[Rob0729]

AB dropped a TD pass that he pretty much never drops, for example. That's different from "if that stiff had actually made a play...". Or, for another one... "We could have beaten Miami, but Harris fumbled" is fine, but the same people who make that claim will ignore the reality of the Dallas fumble (Prescott), and what coulda/woulda/shoulda.

And we've never seen a perfect game by any team. Every team shoots itself in the foot, every game. It's the context of the errors that matters

The Patriots called a cover 0 blitz on 3rd and 25 that if the Cowboys don't convert (or get 24 or so yards to kick the field goal), they lose. A COVER 0 BLITZ!!!!!!! End of argument! I win.



The Pats should have beaten the Cowboys, but an unforced error by Steve Belichick sent the game into overtime.

 

[jimnance]

Second straight game vs team coming off a bye.

I don't see another 45-0 beatdown but that run defense is putrid. Would love to see the Pats take advantage.

OTOH Herbert isn't an ideal matchup for our banged up secondary. I hope they're ready

OP: Is this the " Official" pre-game thread?
If not, I cant post in it.

 

[denverpatsfan]

I think a lot of that is they have problems at kicker. Only 10/15 in XP this year. Yikes. Also only 41% on kickoff touchbacks which feels low.

Huge signing. This could turn the game in the Chargers favor if this new kicker does his job.

 

[PP2]

d.) Special Teams:

We have to ensure that we have the edge here on our coverage and return games.
Bailey should help us with field position as long as we punt block well and keep kicking it out of the back end of the EZ on kick offs.

We killed them on ST last time.

They haven't improved this year by much, so hopefully it'll be a deciding factor again.

 

[Pats2000]

Still mad that BB didn't turn to Stid the last 1/3 of last year. I bet he is too. Who knows if they would have drafted Mac if Stid did half decent.
Oh well. Don't want to change anything now!
(Gunner would be more useful on O now than Harry)

You're really lamenting not seeing Stid when we have Mac? The coaches didn't put him out there because they could tell from practice he was sh*t

 

[Pats2000]

The Pats are not a better football team than the Buffalo Bills right now in any aspect of the game except probably coaching and even that has been questionable this year. They've beaten zero good teams. Why should I think they're going to win the division?

I find your lack of faith disturbing

 

[Pats2000]

Gotta love what the schedule makers did to us this year. Late bye. 3 games vs teams coming off their bye including the Chargers this Sunday. And the Bills get 11 days rest before one of their games with us. Almost like a 4th game vs a team coming off a bye. LOL.

I don't remember that happening before with our schedule.

Mac just sees that as opportunity to build his legend

 

[Pats2000]

Football outsiders says we have an 8% chance to win the division, and 32% chance at a wild card for a 40% chance at playoffs. Beating the Jets helped our chances by 10%.

2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS | Football Outsiders

NFL Playoff Odds

www.footballoutsiders.com

What was football outsiders prognostication in 2001 for a SB win?

 

[Patsgofor4]

With McCourty week-to-week with an abdominal injury, Bill could be interested in Colbert as a depth option.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

With McCourty week-to-week with an abdominal injury, Bill could be interested in Colbert as a depth option.

CBS listed it as an “abs” injury. Lol.