Week 8 pregame discussion: Pats @ Chargers

[sb1]

Football outsiders says we have an 8% chance to win the division, and 32% chance at a wild card for a 40% chance at playoffs. Beating the Jets helped our chances by 10%.

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[jah]

Gotta love what the schedule makers did to us this year. Late bye. 3 games vs teams coming off their bye including the Chargers this Sunday. And the Bills get 11 days rest before one of their games with us. Almost like a 4th game vs a team coming off a bye. LOL.

I don't remember that happening before with our schedule.

We also already got almost all the easy games out of the way, including both free Jets wins.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

@Tottie what’s your prediction on the rest of the season?

 

[JayNM]

We need to beat a top-half team before I start believing in anything this season

Hopefully, it happens this week.

 

[Rob0729]

Rookie QB on the road? Our LB's and DB's have not played consitently this year and it would not surprise me to see Herbert light up our secondary the way everyone has, except for Zach Wilson. Hopefully our ground game can keep the ball out of Herberts hands. I want to see both Stevensen and JJ activated for this game. Pounding the rock is how the Pats can win this game.

The Pats defense is 16th in passing yards, 11th in passing TDs,and fifth in opposing QB rating. They do not have a great pass defense, but it isn't awful either. They give up yards in between the 20s but tighten up in the red zone.

And the Pats did not let everyone light up the secondary this year. Prescott did, but that was in large part because the defense was on the field for most of the game and was exhausted at the end. But Brady didn't, Wilson certainly didn't, Winston only had 128 yards passing, and Tua didn't. In seven games this season, only two QBs had over 300 yards passing on the Patriots - Prescott and Mills (who the Pats shut down in the second half).

 

[RobertWeathers]

I in no way think they suck but I do have legit concerns about the secondary. I like this team and am enjoying the rebuild.

You absolutely should have concerns. Do not mean to dismiss but they aren't as bad as you made them sound.

Best way to make up for lack of sticky coverage is good pressure on the QB.

 

[BelizePats]

The Pats defense is 16th in passing yards, 11th in passing TDs,and fifth in opposing QB rating. They do not have a great pass defense, but it isn't awful either. They give up yards in between the 20s but tighten up in the red zone.

And the Pats did not let everyone light up the secondary this year. Prescott did, but that was in large part because the defense was on the field for most of the game and was exhausted at the end. But Brady didn't, Wilson certainly didn't, Winston only had 128 yards passing, and Tua didn't. In seven games this season, only two QBs had over 300 yards passing on the Patriots - Prescott and Mills (who the Pats shut down in the second half).

Fair enough re secondary not getting torched by everyone as I said earlier. I guess my question is then, "are you comfortable with this secondary against good to elite QB play"?

 

[BelizePats]

You absolutely should have concerns. Do not mean to dismiss but they aren't as bad as you made them sound.

Best way to make up for lack of sticky coverage is good pressure on the QB.

That is fair.

 

[Tottie]

@Tottie what’s your prediction on the rest of the season?

Sure I'll play but keep in mind when you say prediction I try to guess our record by using whatever information and gut feelings I have a this time. I'm not going to put up wins because I want them to win like you would.

8		@Los Angeles LOSS
9		@Carolina WIN
10		vsCleveland WIN
11		@Atlanta LOSS
12		vsTennessee LOSS
13		@Buffalo LOSS
14
15		@Indianapolis LOSS
16		vsBuffalo WIN
17		vsJacksonville WIN
18		@Miami WIN

I think we'll win either Chargers game or Browns game depending on injuries to the Browns. We'll win one of those imo. I also think we may lose to Carolina and beat the Colts but won't win both.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats are not a better football team than the Buffalo Bills right now in any aspect of the game except probably coaching and even that has been questionable this year. They've beaten zero good teams. Why should I think they're going to win the division?

They have an opportunity to win the division. You can think whatever you want, but it’s silly to rule them out just because you want to be negative.
I get that you want to trash the team and it helps your narrative to predict future disaster but it’s a weird way to be a fan of a team.

 

[Rob0729]

Fair enough re secondary not getting torched by everyone as I said earlier. I guess my question is then, "are you comfortable with this secondary against good to elite QB play"?

I am not confident about this game, but I still think the Pats have a decent shot at winning it if the o-line plays well. And I don't know if I would put Herbert in the elite class just yet. He is 6th in passing yards per game, 9th in TDs, 17th in completion percentage, and 14th in passer rating. He is seventh in passing attempts even though he has only played six games.

And in his last two games, he has been so-so with a combined 2TDs vs 3 INTs in those two games. He had an awesome three game stretch against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs where he got 10 TDs and no INTs over that stretch, but in his other three games he has a combined 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Although vs. the Cowboys he did get a lot of yards and a really high completion percentage. Just couldn't get in the end zone and turned the ball over twice.

So which Herbert shows up on Sunday? The awesome one who played vs. the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs or the mediocre to average one who showed up against the Ravens, Cowboys, and WFT?

 

[BelizePats]

I am not confident about this game, but I still think the Pats have a decent shot at winning it if the o-line plays well. And I don't know if I would put Herbert in the elite class just yet. He is 6th in passing yards per game, 9th in TDs, 17th in completion percentage, and 14th in passer rating. He is seventh in passing attempts even though he has only played six games.

And in his last two games, he has been so-so with a combined 2TDs vs 3 INTs in those two games. He had an awesome three game stretch against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs where he got 10 TDs and no INTs over that stretch, but in his other three games he has a combined 3 TDs and 4 INTs.

So which Herbert shows up on Sunday? The awesome one who played vs. the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs or the mediocre one who showed up against the Ravens, Cowboys, and WFT? Although vs. the Cowboys he did get a lot of yards and a really high completion percentage. Just couldn't get in the end zone.

I was not meaning Hebert only in terms of good to elite QB play but futue games as well. Against decent QB play I have concerns with this secondary. Pretty much half our schedule so far has been the Jets and Texans. Not exactly high level QB's . But I also acknowledge that our head coach has a way of getting his teams to build and get better starting around now, in most seasons. I hope and believe that this is the case here with this team. Last weeks game was pretty clean, although admittedly against an awful opponent. I actually feel pretty good about our chances in LA on Sunday, so long as last weeks team shows up and not the one that turns the ball over with way too many stupid penalties that we saw too much of in September. The Chargers will be an excellent test of where this team is at.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Sure I'll play but keep in mind when you say prediction I try to guess our record by using whatever information and gut feelings I have a this time. I'm not going to put up wins because I want them to win like you would.

8		@Los Angeles LOSS WIN
9		@Carolina WIN WIN
10		vsCleveland WIN WIN
11		@Atlanta LOSS WIN
12		vsTennessee LOSS LOSS
13		@Buffalo LOSS LOSS
14
15		@Indianapolis LOSS WIN (can't see us losing after a bye)
16		vsBuffalo WIN WIN
17		vsJacksonville WIN WIN
18		@Miami WIN WIN

I think we'll win either Chargers game or Browns game depending on injuries to the Browns. We'll win one of those imo. I also think we may lose to Carolina and beat the Colts but won't win both.

I added my predictions to your table in bold. I think we'll go 8-2 the rest of the way and end up 11-6. I could see us losing to both LA and Indy but I have them down as wins. No more than 4 more losses I predict.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

You absolutely should have concerns. Do not mean to dismiss but they aren't as bad as you made them sound.

Best way to make up for lack of sticky coverage is good pressure on the QB.

I see this as Winnovich's breakout game!!!

 

[mikey m]

Fair enough re secondary not getting torched by everyone as I said earlier. I guess my question is then, "are you comfortable with this secondary against good to elite QB play"?

It's all about matchups. I said it earlier but Jackson and Williams match up pretty well with Allen and Williams. I'm sure those guys will still make plays but to me the real challenge will be game planning to take away Ekeler. I think our defense can have enough success to win this game. It will be up to the O, and some good ST play would be nice too.

 

[Tottie]

I added my predictions to your table in bold. I think we'll go 8-2 the rest of the way and end up 11-6. I could see us losing to both LA and Indy but I have them down as wins. No more than 4 more losses I predict.

I don't even know what to say to that prediction, it's a little too bold. If it happens I'll be the first to give you credit but I don't see it at all. I think we are more likely to lose more games than I predicted than anything close to your prediction.

 

[50-yard-line]

At least we're playing Buffalo twice in December. 2 games against them in 3 weeks (not counting the bye in between). And that's when BB teams usually start to peak. To me that's much better than playing them in September when we're still figuring things out.

The "should haves" though... eh. There's lots of ways to look at that. We were close... and we also couldn't finish. Middling teams usually can't.

Nor can teams with rookie QBs in their first games.
Nor can teams with half of their roster turned over, and still trying to just figure out who they are.

 

[50-yard-line]

.

 

[Sicilian]

I am not confident about this game, but I still think the Pats have a decent shot at winning it if the o-line plays well. And I don't know if I would put Herbert in the elite class just yet. He is 6th in passing yards per game, 9th in TDs, 17th in completion percentage, and 14th in passer rating. He is seventh in passing attempts even though he has only played six games.

And in his last two games, he has been so-so with a combined 2TDs vs 3 INTs in those two games. He had an awesome three game stretch against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs where he got 10 TDs and no INTs over that stretch, but in his other three games he has a combined 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Although vs. the Cowboys he did get a lot of yards and a really high completion percentage. Just couldn't get in the end zone and turned the ball over twice.

So which Herbert shows up on Sunday? The awesome one who played vs. the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs or the mediocre to average one who showed up against the Ravens, Cowboys, and WFT?

Interestingly enough, after the Jets game the Patriots have a higher yards/attempt passing, and a higher points per game average than Los Angeles. Obviously the Jets game skews that, but you could say the same about the Cleveland game, which is the only time this year the Chargers have scored more than 30 points. The biggest difference between the perceptions of these offenses right now are turnovers and consistency issues for the Pats. LA is more dynamic for sure, and Herbert is ahead of Mac at these stages of their career, but it's not like we're a pee-wee offense going up against the 07 Patriots this week. We have more than enough offense to keep up with the Chargers if the OL holds up and we don't turn the ball over.

 

[Tottie]

Being down on your team makes you a superior poster?

Only in misery world. And why anyone would root for a team that brings them misery is really kind of effed up.

Down on the team because I don't think we'll win 9 or 10 of the next 10? Do you know that poster and his history?