Game Day Thread Official Post Game Thread- Bucs beat the Pats

[Rob0729]

Winston is well above average when it comes to actually throwing the ball. The problem is that Winston is well below average when it comes do high pressure decision making. That's why he's thrown for more than 4000 yards in all 3 of his complete seasons as a starter, but hands out interceptions like he's handing out candy on Halloween. Obviously, there is a recency bias when it comes to QB passing stats, but the fact is that, according to PFR, Winston is #16 all time in passing yards per game.

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NFL Passing Yards per Game Career Leaders | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Some recency bias?!? The fact that Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins in the top 10 tells me there is one hell of a lot recency and length of career bias.

But again, I am not really trying to argue how good Winston is because he isn't. I am just just showing that it is doubtful the Bucs' o-line was awful based on Winston's production in 2019.

 

[moosekill]

Sorry, @moosekill, but you won’t be Top Fan two years straight. Rob takes the title this year.

Congrats, Rob! You’re 2021’s Top Pats Fan. Very loyal. The Patriots have seen fit to bestow you with a new banner. Kraft himself has made the request that you add this to your signature.

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Probably allowed mail in votes or I would have won.

 

[Rob0729]

Probably allowed mail in votes or I would have won.

Hey! You aren't going to accuse me of stealing the election! And before you ask, Ian doesn't allow election audits on this site.

 

[1960Pats]

Yes, but consider that he was throwing against a defensive backfield that had no business starting an NFL game. Scrubs.

That and the unbalanced schedule is why it's so difficult to rank the teams. Some team's 12-5 record could be much weaker than some 11-6 or worse teams.

Even scrubs can be a problem if there's no protection for the QB, especially for one in his fourth game.

 

[Deus Irae]

Some recency bias?!? The fact that Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins in the top 10 tells me there is one hell of a lot recency and length of career bias.

But again, I am not really trying to argue how good Winston is because he isn't. I am just just showing that it is doubtful the Bucs' o-line was awful based on Winston's production in 2019.

Awful is probably too strong a term, but Jensen struggled, Wirfs was not there and they weren't happy with the RT play, the RG spot was not strong, and Smith was bad enough that people wanted him run out of town. It was not a good line.


There's a lot of revisionist history about how good that Bucs team was before Brady. It had some pieces, but it was nothing near any kind of juggernaut just waiting for an average QB.

And the reality is that, all other factors aside, a healthy Brady's been worth an average of games at every opportunity for measurement (2000-2001, 2007-2008, and the Patriots/Bucs teams from last year though, admittedly, it almost certainly wouldn't have been such a large difference between 2008 and a healthy 2009, even if he'd been fully back from day one of 2009.

 

[Rob0729]

Awful is probably too strong a term, but Jensen struggled, Wirfs was not there and they weren't happy with the RT play, the RG spot was not strong, and Smith was bad enough that people wanted him run out of town. It was not a good line.


There's a lot of revisionist history about how good that Bucs team was before Brady. It had some pieces, but it was nothing near any kind of juggernaut just waiting for an average QB.

And the reality is that, all other factors aside, a healthy Brady's been worth an average of games at every opportunity for measurement (2000-2001, 2007-2008, and the Patriots/Bucs teams from last year though, admittedly, it almost certainly wouldn't have been such a large difference between 2008 and a healthy 2009, even if he'd been fully back from day one of 2009.

There were a lot of building blocks for the team there. Other pieces were added after Brady came on board or around the same time. And Brady elevated a lot of the talent too.

But I don't want to turn this into a whole referendum about the quality of the Bucs' team around Brady. My original point is that if we swapped the offenses around Brady and Jones with each other, I think we would get a better idea how good Jones really is playing with a solid o-line and top flight receivers and how bad the Pats' o-line really is protecting a top QB in Brady.

 

[Deus Irae]

There were a lot of building blocks for the team there. Other pieces were added after Brady came on board or around the same time. And Brady elevated a lot of the talent too.

But I don't want to turn this into a whole referendum about the quality of the Bucs' team around Brady. My original point is that if we swapped the offenses around Brady and Jones with each other, I think we would get a better idea how good Jones really is playing with a solid o-line and top flight receivers and how bad the Pats' o-line really is protecting a top QB in Brady.

Maybe, but I think it's clear that the Patriots are deliberately keeping Jones from tossing too much downfield. And his numbers when trying it show that it's probably not a bad idea to do that right now. Would the downfield numbers be better if his OL was stronger? Probably, but it's not likely that the improvement would be a night and day thing. I think we've seen enough of his downfield attempts to say that with at least a fair level of confidence.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yes this. Perspective. Lots of us are "celebrating" competitive efforts and individual stats almost as victories or bragging rights. Back in the day I'd use that kind of argument with my Yankee fan friends on how Wade Boggs was a better hitter than any yankee. Sox couldn't beat the Yankees is the standings but I'd hold onto stats for one up manship. The Pats have to deliver with actual victories. Let's not become the Colts and raise the "We almost won when everyone thought we'd get blown out" banners. Pats have to clean up the mistakes to win these close games.

When the Patriots "almost won" against the Rams in the regular season in 2001, they took it as proof that they could put it together and beat anybody. Giants said the same thing when the "almost won" against the '07 Patriots in the last game of the season.

This is a developing team, clearly, with a rookie QB and 11 new starters, 25 new players. Growing pains are real.

Losing close games since the end of 2019 is annoying, but it's also believable, given the miserable end of '19 with a destroyed OL and a QB with only one vet receiver. Last year was miserable, but expected, especially after it became apparent that they really didn't have a QB.

This year - let's just see them move to the other side of this. I think they will.

 

[VectorPrime]

So mods are just cool with quoting people in other threads to come in here with “lmao look at this IDIOT am I right?”

 

[Uptown]

QB2

 

[Rob0729]

Maybe, but I think it's clear that the Patriots are deliberately keeping Jones from tossing too much downfield. And his numbers when trying it show that it's probably not a bad idea to do that right now. Would the downfield numbers be better if his OL was stronger? Probably, but it's not likely that the improvement would be a night and day thing. I think we've seen enough of his downfield attempts to say that with at least a fair level of confidence.

Have we really seen enough down the field attempts? Half his down the field attempts last week were on that garbage time drive when he was just hucking it up there to make a huge play. And of course Smith dropped a couple of deeper passes. Beyond those passes, I doubt he has thrown down the field more than maybe a half dozen times or so. I could be wrong.

But if he had more time to throw the ball and receivers got more open down the field, he might at least do what Brady did from 2001-2006. Brady throw deep much during that time period either.

 

[50-yard-line]

He's obsessed with me lol. Which is weird considering he uses to ask me questions about college and pro stuff but got mad after he was bounced from one of my threads. I honestly feel bad for him. He's been parroting the same stuff since 2011 and couldn't tell you a thing about the game of football.

The construction crap was about you? Didn't know that.

I admit, such cracks set me off. I'm a blue-collar kid from a blue-collar family who found a talent that pays and more than a little luck to get into posistion to take advantage of it...and so gets to hobnob with the so-called winners., a lot of whom act like their s*** don't stink. Screw that.

I can honestly say I've never read a post of his that provides any insight or knowledge. In fact they're embarrassingly bad. The other day he said coaches should give the RB permission to block down the middle bc guessing which tackle to go to was too hard lol.

I agree with some of his takes. I mean, let's face it, beyond a few people here, the rest are just fans who see what they see and opine on it - myself included.

I know my own area of expertise (not football) and when I see people complaining about this or that in a book or production or video game, then explaining how it should be fixed, I laugh my ass off, because they have NO IDEA of what goes into the sausage they're complaining about.

So, I don't need particular insights or knowledge from 90% (as you say - it's probably more like 98%) of the people posting here. I'd settle for opinions without the mudslinging nonsense, personally.

If football knowledge was required to post here there would about 10 members here. I've actually been made fun for using terminology, explaining stuff. We have some good members here but too many losers with agendas tbh.

See above: probably more like 98%.

This board has had agendas and such since I've been here, but the venom since the departure of Brady...well, I find myself coming here less often and skimming most of the posts. The site's been Felgerized, and no, that's not a good thing on a fan board.

Let me add one thing, in case I haven't said it before: your draft board makes the draft much more fun for me as I play with mocks. Your rating give me players to look for and read about and watch film on - I wouldn't have the time otherwise. So thanks for that.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I really really miss Scarnecchia. Our oline shouldn't fail this bad with Trent Brown out. Our team is improving but not fast enough. I feel that we can win the majority of our remaining games if we routinely score 24 points or so.

Also I think we should abandon the run entirely. It sounds crazy but Mac seems to play better when he knows it isn't an option. If Mac holds up physically, we could have the kinks worked out come November and maybe sneak our way into a wild card slot. Lose now so we can win later.

 

[Fuzz]

Maybe, but I think it's clear that the Patriots are deliberately keeping Jones from tossing too much downfield. And his numbers when trying it show that it's probably not a bad idea to do that right now. Would the downfield numbers be better if his OL was stronger? Probably, but it's not likely that the improvement would be a night and day thing. I think we've seen enough of his downfield attempts to say that with at least a fair level of confidence.

One of Macs biggest strengths in college was his downfield accuracy. Most of his downfield attempts in the pros came from one game against the Saints. I would take the greater sample size in college as a more accurate representation of his skills in that area. He was also pretty good in the preseason. I understand why they are avoiding the deeper throws right now, but i am confident we'll see a lot more of that as we get deeper into the season once he gets more comfortable.

 

[Deus Irae]

Have we really seen enough down the field attempts? Half his down the field attempts last week were on that garbage time drive when he was just hucking it up there to make a huge play. And of course Smith dropped a couple of deeper passes. Beyond those passes, I doubt he has thrown down the field more than maybe a half dozen times or so. I could be wrong.

I think we've seen enough to understand the reluctance. I don't think we've seen enough to call it certified proven.

But if he had more time to throw the ball and receivers got more open down the field, he might at least do what Brady did from 2001-2006. Brady throw deep much during that time period either.

They're using Jakobi Meyers for the deep passes. It's a platoon that just hasn't been made public.

 

[Deus Irae]

One of Macs biggest strengths in college was his downfield accuracy. Most of his downfield attempts in the pros came from one game against the Saints. I would take the greater sample size in college as a more accurate representation of his skills in that area. He was also pretty good in the preseason.

This isn't college, though, and Jones acknowledged a need to learn the difference between college windows and NFL windows. That difference is more important the deeper you go with the ball, particularly in traffic areas.

 

[Fuzz]

This isn't college, and Jones acknowledged a need to learn the difference between college windows and NFL windows. That difference is more important the deeper you go with the ball, particularly in traffic areas.

Yeah, but its still a better indicator than one game where he struggled.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, but its still a better indicator than one game where he struggled.

It's not been just one game where he stunk, and a trio of games where he was good at it, and I wouldn't necessarily agree with your take even if it were. He's a rookie who's learning the NFL game, and he's doing it with an ok, but not outstanding arm, for a team with a very small margin for mistakes. I think the current strategy has been working, in terms of QB development.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Ivan]

I think part of the reason Belichick kicked the ball is because it took pressure off Mac.

Sunday night, primetime home game. You're a rookie playing against your team's former GOAT. If Mac comes up short there, that's pretty tough on him.

I think Mac can handle that pressure and if it was a 61 yard field goal instead of a 56 yarder, I think Belichick goes for it. But given the circumstances and Folk having told Belichick he was good from 58 yards, the FG attempt was a reasonable decision to make.

I agree completely, he did not want Jones to hold the burden of a loss on one play. I honestly felt he would have converted on 4th, but I get why Belichick would try to protect him in that situation. Overall I’m really impressed and happy about the performance they had last night, that’s something they can really build on.