Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[Twentytothree]

Bill in 2009: We went for it on 4th and 2 because we didn’t want to give the ball to Peyton Manning

Bill tonight: On 4th and 3 we’re gonna try a 56 yard FG in bad weather with our kicker who doesn’t have that range - because best case scenario I’d love to give the GOAT another shot at winning this one

4th and 2 had the GOAT throw the ball

 

[FCB02062]

Right now in the heat of the moment this decision by the coach is right up there with fourth and two in Indianapolis. But in the grand scheme of things tonight's boneheaded call will probably just fade into the dustbin of history because this Patriots team has to improve by leaps and massive bounds if they even want to sniff the playoffs. if i remember correctly the 4th and 2 year the Patriots went to the playoffs

 

[Pape]

Can't apply that conclusion to everyone who disagrees with a call, based upon what certain other forum members are saying.

Yes, you can. The comment wasn't made in a vacuum.

Since February its become more about the personalities than it has about football.

 

[Foxypats]

hate the decision... stupid metrics don't take into the equation that the kicker is hurt and it's pouring rain out

Bill acting like a complete jackazz in post game presser

You sound so bitter, since you hate Bill so much go to the Tampa forum where you can worship Brady. You're not a true Patriot fan and never was !

 

[PWRxWLF]

Except that it failed by maybe three inches, so of course Folk had a chance to make it. Going for it from 4th and 3, in particular when your run game is not going anywhere, is a less than 50% proposition. And a successful conversion would not have won the game, but most likely just set up a somewhat shorter field goal in heavy rain.

Everybody's arguing based on outcome and emotion - I have not seen a coherent argument based on statistics.

What statistics are needed? It’s just fact. That kick would’ve matched the longest in your kickers career, and it was in a downpour. If every call the coach made was done by analytics he would’ve played Butler in the SB. I mean, sometimes you’ve gotta just go for it, statistics in your favor or not. If they went for it and failed to convert, I’m not too sure many people would’ve questioned the decision.

I can’t believe he was that close to be honest. He gave it his best damn shot. Proud of the team for the most part. They put up a damn good fight. The more experienced & talented team just came out on top. On the + side, this Pats team didn’t look like an absolute train wreck. Hopefully this will be the game that really builds their confidence going forward. If they can clean up some of the issues, they’ve got a good season ahead of them.

 

[Pats2000]

Despicable, nonsensical, cowardly call.

A 56-yarder is a very, very difficult FG in any circumstance let alone in these conditions.

You get a first down, at worst you kick a 52-yarder for the win. You control your own destiny, you have a TO, you can have a couple of plays for a decent FG attempt.

Even if Folk made it, there were 50 seconds and 2 TO’s and it’s Brady with the ball only needing FG range.

Give your young QB a chance to win the game. Horrible decision from every angle.

They did give him a chance to win the game, he had 3 downs prior

 

[Pats2000]

Absolutely.

Zero confidence mcd would have called a good play. It would have been a disaster. Does anyone else remember how many times the Pats were in 4th and 21 this game.

Mac was playing great but it's like the rule of multiplication, anything times zero (mcd) is still zero.

Going with Folk and your Defense makes more sense than trusting a fraud oc.

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You have some kind of crazy obsession. I picture you in your basement with pictured of JMD all over the place with big red X's drawn through them. While you wack it to Leftwich

 

[PWRxWLF]

You convert when that D has been on your qbs ass the entire last drive? highly doubtful.

You kick, you make it you win.

You play the odds. The odds say kick it.


and you know what, no matter what decision BB made, it would have been excoriated if it didnt work.
You know you;d be here screaming for his head if they went for it and didnt convert.

I wouldn’t of screamed for his head if a conversion didn’t work. It made the most sense to go for it. I didn’t think Folk had any chance in hell of making that kick. Shocked he was as close as he was. That rain was coming down hard. I actually yelled in disappointment when he ran into the field. Everyone else in my house watching agreed.

 

[Twentytothree]

Do these metrics take the weather into account? I honestly don’t know.

Unlikely, but neither do they take into account that the Pats running game wasn't going anywhere all night. Emotions aside, neither call was statistically much more likely to succeed than the other.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Its only a bad call because Folk didnt make it.

It’s a bad call if Folk hits it, and Brady gets TB to hit the game winning field goal as he had 1 minute left and 2 time outs left. We’ve seen this movie quite often over 20 years. It’s not a perfect record, but it’s ridiculously high.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

The wind may have picked up an extra .5 mph, or changed directions slightly, or the rain may have picked up by an imperceptible amount. That’s the type of factor we’re talking about with an oblong ball going 171 feet and missing a target by six inches.

And Brady and Belichick are just spectators to their legacy there, too. Crazy to think about these things.

mike reiss’s Twitter post is laughably bad, Chatham level homerism. I didn’t think he was like that

go for it! belichick once went for it 4th and 2 from own 28 against colts in 09! We didn’t convert but I loved that call

 

[Pape]

I wouldn’t of screamed for his head if a conversion didn’t work. It made the most sense to go for it. I didn’t think Folk had any chance in hell of making that kick. Shocked he was as close as he was. That rain was coming down hard. I actually yelled in disappointment when he ran into the field. Everyone else in my house watching agreed.

he had the leg. He had the kick. just hooked it. Make it. better chance of winning.

with the conversion attempt you still have 1) the conversion then 2) the kick.
You have zero idea where you will be kicking from, if you make it.
You have zero idea of you will hold onto the football in the conversion attempt.

the odds stack up in those scenarios.

thats why the kick was the right decision.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

4th and 3 on average is ~45%. If you don't have a working running game it's not going to be higher.

I appreciate the stat you provided. On the other hand, the Patriots ran for -1 yards and abandoned the run game long before that, so they were in pass-only mode much of the game and the Bucs knew it. Mac was 31/40. The Bucs were missing their three starting corners and their starting free safety. I can’t imagine 45% is reflective of this particular game.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

You have some kind of crazy obsession. I picture you in your basement with pictured of JMD all over the place with big red X's drawn through them. While you wack it to Leftwich

Byron Leftwich is a fantastic oc and a much hotter hc candidate this offseason than the 1-3 Pats oc who could only score 17 against a BucsD missing its 3 starting cornerbacks tonight.

 

[Pats2000]

Byron Leftwich is a fantastic oc and a much hotter hc candidate this offseason than the 1-3 Pats oc who could only score 17 against a BucsD missing its 3 starting cornerbacks tonight.

You up to 5x a day to his pics now?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

You up to 5x a day to his pics now?

Nah just find it funny the offense scored 17 pts and people are desperate to compliment the play calling. Nope. Mac played well but Mac deserves a better oc.

.

 

[Ian]

Nah just find it funny the offense scored 17 pts and people are desperate to compliment the play calling. Nope. Mac played well but Mac deserves a better oc.

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You need to stop beating this drum. As I've told you, I get you don't like him, but this is a dead-end conversation because McDaniels isn't going anywhere. Their problems go beyond the OC right now, with an offensive line that we've been fortunate hasn't gotten him killed. All you're going to do is keep getting worked up hoping for a change that isn't coming.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Drop kick flutie

mcdaniels called an ok game today. Throws to tight ends, trick plays, but I would have liked to seen a 40 yard throw downfield once or twice and Definitely go for it on 4th down! That was a (as poster LFGMac10 stated ) “pancy” call

 

[festy1986]

Nah just find it funny the offense scored 17 pts and people are desperate to compliment the play calling. Nope. Mac played well but Mac deserves a better oc.

.

I'd settle for better offensive line play

 

[NG Pats Fan]

You need to stop beating this drum. As I've told you, I get you don't like him, but this is a dead-end conversation because McDaniels isn't going anywhere. Their problems go beyond the OC right now, with an offensive line that we've been fortunate that he hasn't gotten killed.

blaming the O line when we pay $13 million a year to a wide receiver who isn’t a game changer ? Let’s throw some end zone corner fades, back shoulder throws, 50 yards downfield throws now and then