Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[JayNM]

I think McD called a pretty good game today actually. It does gets hard when your line is composed of trash cans

 

[Ian]

blaming the O line when we pay $13 million a year to a wide receiver who isn’t a game changer ?

The O line plays a role when the QB is forced to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry. Hard to take advantage of a lot of what some of these guys can do when the ball has to come out as quick as it does to keep Jones from ending up getting crushed.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

I think McD called a pretty good game today actually. It does gets hard when your line is composed of trash cans

he did call a good game. Still, mac needs to make a few downfield throws every game. And find a game changing wide receiver with yards after catch ability

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Matt Judon should make pro bowl

 

[Twentytothree]

Mac was 31/40. The Bucs were missing their three starting corners and their starting free safety.

Indeed, yet 2 out of the 3 prior passes were incomplete. That's where the game was lost, not with the FG decision.

I can’t imagine 45% is reflective of this particular game.

Maybe not, but I can't find a breakdown for probabilities for passing attempts on 4th and 3 when your run game is useless and the opponents secondary is depleted. But that's sort-of-the-point: the win probabilities in this situation are highly uncertain, and therefore the righteous certainty of those calling the FG decision horrible, cowardly or worse is really misplaced.

 

[Hawaiianpatsfan2]

Except that it failed by maybe three inches, so of course Folk had a chance to make it. Going for it from 4th and 3, in particular when your run game is not going anywhere, is a less than 50% proposition. And a successful conversion would not have won the game, but most likely just set up a somewhat shorter field goal in heavy rain.

Everybody's arguing based on outcome and emotion - I have not seen a coherent argument based on statistics.

So you’d rather take a 43% chance field goal, over 50% chance for a first down? Neither guarantee a win. Not in this situation with Brady and two timeouts with a minute to play. You have to play to win against players of this quality and teams like this. Nobody would’ve questioned going for a first down. At least not anyone that watched the game actually play out.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I'd settle for better offensive line play

I wonder if the offensive line is part of the offensive coordinator's purview and supervision....


.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Indeed, yet 2 out of the 3 prior passes were incomplete. That's where the game was lost, not with the FG decision.

Maybe not, but I can't find a breakdown for probabilities for passing attempts on 4th and 3 when your run game is useless and the opponents secondary is depleted. But that's sort-of-the-point: the win probabilities in this situation are highly uncertain, and therefore the righteous certainty of those calling the FG decision horrible, cowardly or worse is really misplaced.

Fair enough. As I stated before, I didn’t see this as a horrendous call but one where it didn’t seem the odds were there. Maybe they were. Intuitively it seemed like the wrong call.

 

[thecore762]

I would have loved for the team to go for it. I mean come on we spent money on two tight ends…you go for it, we saw what happened when teams left time on the clock against Brady before, hell even Rodgers vs SF. You don’t give them the opportunity. This was a decent game but we didn’t run the ball and it’s probably because our O-Line was absolute trash. In the first half Mac was getting hit a ton. BB needs to figure things out asap because Mac will not last a whole season getting hit like that. I think he might be one of the most hit QB in the league right now. Plus Mac has no mobility so you have to do everything you can to protect him and keep him upright. I’d like us to spend some money this off-season and get some solid o-linemen.

 

[Simpelton]

Also if hes 60% from 50+, from 55+ hes close to 30

BAD.
CALL.

Nope. You can't just look at Folk's chances of making the FG. you also have to look at the potential odds of a conversion on 4th and 3. And the numbers there aren't any better.

When you have two bad choices presented to you it is not a ZOMG WORST CALL EVARRRRRR when you make one of them and it doesn't work

 

[Simpelton]

Do these metrics take the weather into account? I honestly don’t know.

I'm actually not sure whether the bad weather hurts the kicker or the QB more.

 

[Hawaiianpatsfan2]

A part of me wonders if the team failed here due to the lack of no longer having Earnies brain on the fly. We may never know. That’s part of the mystique of Ernie.

 

[Simpelton]

It’s a bad call if Folk hits it, and Brady gets TB to hit the game winning field goal as he had 1 minute left and 2 time outs left. We’ve seen this movie quite often over 20 years. It’s not a perfect record, but it’s ridiculously high.

brady does that more than any QB alive, but it's still not high odds that he'll pull one of those off in any given game. especially when he'd done virtually nothing all night but rack up midfield yardage

 

[Simpelton]

Indeed, yet 2 out of the 3 prior passes were incomplete. That's where the game was lost, not with the FG decision.

Maybe not, but I can't find a breakdown for probabilities for passing attempts on 4th and 3 when your run game is useless and the opponents secondary is depleted. But that's sort-of-the-point: the win probabilities in this situation are highly uncertain, and therefore the righteous certainty of those calling the FG decision horrible, cowardly or worse is really misplaced.

You win. No matter which call Bill made in that situation. fans would have been furious he didn't take the other. If he'd gone for it and got turnover on downs we'd be hearing all about the fact that a kicker should be able to make it from 56 and why didn't they even let him try.

This is the reason I started this thread. Because otherwise this discussion is going to be plastered all over about 6 other threads all moving in the same pointless circle. That'll probably still happen but like the FG attempt, why not take the chance for a good outcome when it's right there?

There wasn't really much to choose from between either one if you take an honest look at the numbers and situation, but furious fans don't like losing so they engage in magical thinking about how the fact that one improbable thing didn't work clearly means we should have tried the other improbable thing that surely would have worked.

People just aren't wired right to really fully understand the concept that occasionally there's NO right answer.

 

[Simpelton]

I think McD called a pretty good game today actually. It does gets hard when your line is composed of trash cans

Considering the OL was getting killed, McD did a fine job of finding yards for Mac.

Coaches coach and players play. If there was an issue in this game it came down to some rough spots with execution, not coaching. Again, Jones did well but he's still a rookie and has a few rough edges. Liked his fight in this game though.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

I honestly didn't hate the decision, and I was amazed at how well he kicked it from that distance in the rain... it was a foot from going in.

What I hated was being put In that situation because you make it and give TB12 50+ seconds and 2 timeouts to kick a field goal, or you risk it on a 4th down, and still aren't guaranteed to make a field goal following a successful conversion.

I think it's easy to criticize now because folk narrowly missed it, but it would have given us the lead. I'm not mad at the decision, however, I do think in this instance being aggressive with Tampa having just lost their starting safety to a concussion, and already having no decent corners left was a smart move as well.

 

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

I will admit to being emotional about the decision, but must point out it was the moment I saw Folk on the field. I immediately yelled that a FG attempt guaranteed a loss. If you would have guaranteed me that Folk would have made the kick I still would have said go for the first down without any hesitation at all.

Seriously, let's ignore the fact that making that kick in those conditions is a low percentage play to say the least. Let's assume it is a 100% chance, a guaranteed make. I still think we have a better shot at winning with us attempting a 4th & 3 from their 39 where a FG now wins the game (as Brady would have no time after such a FG attempt) than giving Brady the ball from his own 25 needing a FG to win with 52 seconds and 2 timeouts.

Let's look at this another way, let's say the odds of converting 4th & 3 and Folk hitting the 56 yarder were equal, I still believe we had a better chance at the 4th & 3, but let's say they were even. Which scenario gives us the better chance to win, 50 seconds and no timeouts from their 36 (this is assuming we only gain exactly 3 yards and have to spend our last timeout), with us only needing a FG to win, or Brady from his own 25 only needing a FG to win with 52 seconds and 2 timeouts? I don't see it as close, while it is true that Brady didn't throw a TD all night, that is of no relevance, he didn't need a TD, he only needed a FG. You give Brady the ball and it is more likely than not we lose, and we as Patriot fans should know that better than anyone.

Here is my take on the statistics:

FG attempt, 30% chance it succeeds, even if it does, 60% chance Brady leads TB to a game winning FG, that is 12% chance of victory.

4th & 3, 50% chance it succeeds, then 60% chance that we seal the win if successful on the conversion, that is a 30% chance of victory.

Someone tell me where my numbers are off, and don't quote the ESPN numbers, break down those numbers like I fid and show me the numbers that result in the FG giving the more likely victory.

Neither gives amazing odds, but one is 2.5x better, and unfortunately it isn't the one we picked and I still have absolutely no idea why.

 

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

Let me be fair though, while I totally disagreed with Bill on the final decision, I thought he owned the first 59 minutes. It seemed that every big break went against us, the Mac interception on a throw that could have just as easily been a huge completion. The fumble on a helmet with a ton of momentum right on the ball, and then the penalty that took our one forced turnover off the board (totally the correct call). So we lost the turnover battle by 2 and still had a big time chance to win the game. That can be crefmdited to many things, but I would give the biggest share of the credit to Bill, I just wish he had handled the last minute half as well as the first 59, but it doesn't take away the first 59.

 

[Nunchucks]

I wanted the Patriots to go for it. 4th and 3 allows for a lot of short passes, something the Patriots had been eating up all night long. THe Bucs were missing all of their corners and Winfield was out of the game. This really was a great situation to go for it - if they are successful they can eat some more clock and get closer....if they fail - they fail. I really did not expect Folk to make the kick.....and if he did - well that is a minute for Brady to add to his legacy, especially with Jones limping around out there on 1 leg trying to cover AB.

 

[stcjones]

Right now in the heat of the moment this decision by the coach is right up there with fourth and two in Indianapolis. But in the grand scheme of things tonight's boneheaded call will probably just fade into the dustbin of history because this Patriots team has to improve by leaps and massive bounds if they even want to sniff the playoffs. if i remember correctly the 4th and 2 year the Patriots went to the playoffs

Playoffs?! With this OL? Nope.