Belichick vs. Brady duel: the X and O's.

[Pats1971]

Not by Brady and that was the point.

Brady has faced those coaches after that, in fact one this year one in the superbowl...lets say the scheme didnt matter. Thing about schemes is you have to have great players to make them work. Its not so much the scheme, its having great players. If I tell you, hey we are going to put constant pressure on a QB, we are going to cover everyone, and we will stop the run, well, thats great, that will beat anyone, but why have you not done that before this game?

 

[jimnance]

Can't argue with either of the first two points. White and Gilmore would have been HUGE in a game like this. It's definitely much harder without them, no question. Uche practiced yesterday in limited fashion, and was kind of a surprise out last week if I'm not mistaken. He may not play, but there's a good chance he does as well.

As for getting blown out? I'd be surprised. I feel like every time we're SUPPOSED to get blown out, we don't. And much like the Saints responded to their whooping against Carolina, I expect this team to respond well to the wake up call against the Saints. That doesn't mean it'll be enough to overcome the challenges against the Bucs, but I expect a much better effort in this game than last... which, by the way, despite being their worst game this year, was a 1 score game in the 4th quarter with a 3rd and 7 for the defense. One player makes one play and that game comes down to the wire. Them's the breaks, you don't get credit for how you lose, just saying that even their worst effort ended up being a close game in the end.

I dont think they'll get blown out , either.
I said they SHOULD get blown based on all the circumstances. But I do believe they lose. Which is ok as long as they play hard, dont play stupid and the OL actually plays. Need to see them show improvement and play with some pride.

 

[Guts]

Not Xs and Os but the Bucs are the 2nd most penalized team in the league and they will commit a key penalty on Sunday that will help the Patriots since we rarely beat ourselves.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Brady has faced those coaches after that, in fact one this year one in the superbowl...lets say the scheme didnt matter. Thing about schemes is you have to have great players to make them work. Its not so much the scheme, its having great players. If I tell you, hey we are going to put constant pressure on a QB, we are going to cover everyone, and we will stop the run, well, thats great, that will beat anyone, but why have you not done that before this game?

Broncos D had a ton of castoffs and average players. They were overachieving, other teams caught on, but Brady couldn't figure it out.

 

[Vindicate]

Is Brady the red herring of this game? As in, is he someone who, due to level of play, that tailoring your approach around shutting him down might not be as fruitful as looking at a weak unit/important, yet vulnerable, chain in the offense? Like, I dunno, the offensive version of taking a key CB out of a Superbowl against a strong offense that by all means should've won, but no one expected that same offender's coach to be stubbornly keeping out a crucial link for the entire team?

 

[PP2]

Here's Lazar's take on it. He is correct in that we'll use rush 4 drop 7 most of the time, but neglects to mention that we must mix things up continually or Brady will just latch on and start picking apart the coverage.

 

[PP2]

Gronk being out is huge for two reasons- he would have commanded double coverage, and he would have rendered useless any blitzing or heavy rushing we would do because he sees the field much like a quarterback and would know where to go, and also- Brady and Gronk having played together for so long, neither of them would have to think about who's going to go where to beat the rush.

Also Bernard out is going to have an impact. Brady doesn't have his 3rd down back security blanket.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Not Xs and Os but the Bucs are the 2nd most penalized team in the league and they will commit a key penalty on Sunday that will help the Patriots since we rarely beat ourselves.

It may not matter if NE is uncharacteristically taking penalties too, like we have been all year.

 

[sb1]

Bill needs to put together a game plan like he did to derail the 1999 Pats. Remember that game? Nobody saw that coming.

Felt like that was a career trajectory changer for Bledsoe.

 

[sb1]

I would be really surprised if Gronk doesn’t play even if limited. He has this one circled like Brady does.

 

[Zarozzor]

I would be really surprised if Gronk doesn’t play even if limited. He has this one circled like Brady does.

Maybe only in the red zone?

 

[Kontradiction]

Gronk being out is huge for two reasons- he would have commanded double coverage, and he would have rendered useless any blitzing or heavy rushing we would do because he sees the field much like a quarterback and would know where to go, and also- Brady and Gronk having played together for so long, neither of them would have to think about who's going to go where to beat the rush.

Also Bernard out is going to have an impact. Brady doesn't have his 3rd down back security blanket.

Is Gronk actually going to be out, though? I don’t see him drawing consistent doubles outside of the RZ.

 

[Ivan]

The way you beat the best offense’s and the greatest WB’s is straightforward, you produce long drives that eat up the clock, don’t allow quick scores, and limit their drive opportunities to less than 10, because if they get 10-14 drive opportunities they will put up over 30 pretty much every time. Unfortunately that is going to be next to impossible to do because Tampa Bay doesn’t allow anything on the ground, even the best running game’s do jack sh.t against them, so eating up the clock is out the window. The only way I see the Patriots pulling off the win is if their offense is flawless and they can somehow get the Buc’s to turn the ball over 3-4 times. That’s unlikely but not impossible.

Belichick may go back to his game plan against the Bills in that Giants-Bill’s SB where he told his defense “ If Thurman Thomas gets 100+ yards tonight we will win this game.” In other words let them run all they want. So I would say go with 2 DL, use a ton of LB’s and safeties, send different defenders on rushing Brady, and flood the intermediate areas of the defense with LB’s and their secondary players. Will that work, doubtful against Brady, but it’s worth a shot.

 

[sb1]

The way you beat the best offense’s and the greatest WB’s is straightforward, you produce long drives that eat up the clock, don’t allow quick scores, and limit their drive opportunities to less than 10, because if they get 10-14 drive opportunities they will put up over 30 pretty much every time. Unfortunately that is going to be next to impossible to do because Tampa Bay doesn’t allow anything on the ground, even the best running game’s do jack sh.t against them, so eating up the clock is out the window. The only way I see the Patriots pulling off the win is if their offense is flawless and they can somehow get the Buc’s to turn the ball over 3-4 times. That’s unlikely but not impossible.

Belichick may go back to his game plan against the Bills in that Giants-Bill’s SB where he told his defense “ If Thurman Thomas gets 100+ yards tonight we will win this game.” In other words let them run all they want. So I would say go with 2 DL, use a ton of LB’s and safeties, send different defenders on rushing Brady, and flood the intermediate areas of the defense with LB’s and their secondary players. Will that work, doubtful against Brady, but it’s worth a shot.

That was the plan against Peyton Manning and the record breaking Broncos offense in 2013. Broncos rushed for almost 300 yards. Pats needed a Welker gaffe in OT to beat them. I think the Bucs offense if healthy is better than that Broncos team though.

Bucs can be had in the secondary but to date Mac hasn’t shown he can take advantage of that. Good week to start.

 

[venecol]

Here's Lazar's take on it. He is correct in that we'll use rush 4 drop 7 most of the time, but neglects to mention that we must mix things up continually or Brady will just latch on and start picking apart the coverage.

Nice article by Lazar. Proposing the Pats follow the Rams defensive plan is fine since it mainly worked but who on the Pats D is ADonald and JRamsey?

I think MEvans & AB can beat JC and JJ. Fournette will be the 3rd down back. His receiving numbers are almost identical to Bernards.

 

[PP2]

Nice article by Lazar. Proposing the Pats follow the Rams defensive plan is fine since it mainly worked but who on the Pats D is ADonald and JRamsey?

I think MEvans & AB can beat JC and JJ. Fournette will be the 3rd down back. His receiving numbers are almost identical to Bernards.

Yeah I was surprised that Lazar didn't really think this out. He's usually good with matchups.

 

[PP2]

Is Gronk actually going to be out, though? I don’t see him drawing consistent doubles outside of the RZ.

May not be 100% out but, IMO he's not going to play enough to have an impact on the game outside a critical RZ situation. And even then, we'll double him up without having to sacrifice coverage elsewhere because it's in the RZ. Pure speculation on my part, so who knows?

 

[Rob0729]

I posted this in the pregame thread, but it may be more relevant here:

Two stats I heard on the radio today that play in the Pats' favor tomorrow night obviously with the caveat that it is only three games worth of stats.

• The Pats lead the league in QB pressures up the middle
• The Bucs' pass defense is on track to be statistically the worst pass defense in NFL history and they are giving up 100 YPG than the worst pass defense last year.

Again, it is only three games. So these stats will likely change over the course of the season. But if they hold true tomorrow night, the Pats have a decent chance of winning.

 

[Kontradiction]

May not be 100% out but, IMO he's not going to play enough to have an impact on the game outside a critical RZ situation. And even then, we'll double him up without having to sacrifice coverage elsewhere because it's in the RZ. Pure speculation on my part, so who knows?

What are you thoughts on a 3-2-6 with heavy zone emphasis. Cover-3 with Cover-1 mixed in instead of vice versa? Light front. Invite the run and force Brady to be patient. Brady may come in with his hair on fire for this one and emotion may, HOPEFULLY, push him to force some stuff downfield. Would seem that dime personnel showing Cover-1 press pre-snap with outside leverage and bailing after the snap to choke off everything deep and forcing them to either run against that light front or dink and dunk while being patient might be the order of the day.

 

[Kontradiction]

I posted this in the pregame thread, but it may be more relevant here:

Two stats I heard on the radio today that play in the Pats' favor tomorrow night obviously with the caveat that it is only three games worth of stats.

• The Pats lead the league in QB pressures up the middle
• The Bucs' pass defense is on track to be statistically the worst pass defense in NFL history and they are giving up 100 YPG than the worst pass defense last year.

Again, it is only three games. So these stats will likely change over the course of the season. But if they hold true tomorrow night, the Pats have a decent chance of winning.

I think this is a great game to spread them out. I’d avoid bunch formations, honestly, because it would make life easier on them if we’re going to see a lot of zone. Spreading them out would also make life easier on the ground game.